What Musk is doing is dangerous and it's far too risky for China to just dismiss it. Nothing may come of Starship, but the risk that it turns out that they will indeed come if it's built is too great for China not to develop a comparable capability ASAP. The downside is that China is out tens of billions of dollars over the development of CZ-9... big deal. That's chump change to China and money will spent to mitigate that risk.
If the upside materializes, then China is very well positioned to capitalize on it.
The success of Starship is not a nightmare for China, but a nightmare for the United States
China's aerospace industry is currently only taking remedial classes, which will not be completed until 2030.
The true strength of China's aerospace industry will only be revealed in 2035-2045.
NASA is currently sleepwalking in the United States. Allowing SpaceX to develop is actually the biggest harm to American space.
You haven't seen the research and development capabilities of CASC, an engine research institute, in completing the development of 9 series of advanced engines in 8 years, including 5 engines with different fuel systems of 200t and above.
Does the United States still have engine development capabilities that can be matched with it? Raptor? If you let the Raptor go through the SSME acceptance process, you will know what this thing is.
Several commercial and private rocket companies in China, which have only been established for 3-5 years, will soon be able to provide thrust of 60-100 tons, equipped with deep thrust engines, some kerosene power, and some methane power. Within 3 years, at least 5 companies will make their first flight and achieve reuse of Falcon 9-level VTVL rockets.
Go see the United States, how many others can achieve all of these at the same time?
How many years did Musk use Merlin 1 to Merlin 1D back then? 13-14 years.
China's toxic fuel rockets have not yet exited the historical stage. The United States and Russia started clean fuel in the 1970s and 1980s, and Europe and Japan also completed the construction of non-toxic propellant rocket systems in the 1990s. China is still taking remedial classes.
In rocket manufacturing, engine development needs to be carried out first. In fact, VTVL technology is not difficult (for American rocket companies), and the real obstacle to SpaceX's competitors is actually the engine system. The development and maturity of engine systems need to be advanced by 10 years (which is why there are problems with the Raptor at this stage). There is no shelf engine available (VTVL needs to consider the mass of the rocket), resulting in the Falcon 9, which has 60-80t engines, standing out in the mid to large rocket launch market.
You need to see the inventory of CASC's engine shelf products after 2030. This is what shocked me (surpassing the United States too much. The glory of American aerospace engines is the history in the aerospace encyclopedia). Because the engine is free, rocket manufacturing is free.
The biggest problem with SpaceX is actually the lack of engine reserves, which he and Bluesource cannot compare in this regard. StarShip and HLS are currently facing numerous difficulties (not the issue of entering LEO orbit, but the easiest of the three major problems), and the core issue is that their power system started with an engine with a capacity of over 200 tons. And he doesn't have any reserves for engines of other thrust levels. Then relying on this engine (Raptor engine) for innovation revolutionized the logic of the entire launch system.
There are too many problems in between. But most people are not aware of the various technical limitations involved. An overly optimistic estimate of SpaceX's promotion of US space launches within 10 years.
In fact, the opposite is true. SpaceX is the ultimate damage to American space, and as you can see on the surface, the Artemis 3/4 program is almost destined to fail. Only by the end of 2025 can we understand the demo of the unmanned moon setting in Artemis. SpaceX has developed a pen shaped lander and is preparing to attempt landing and takeoff in a scenario where there is no hard ground on the lunar surface. This is the core issue.
The real problem with SpaceX is that it is excessively promoting the global aerospace industry, and it will create a siphon effect on the US aerospace industry. On a day with SpaceX, other companies simply cannot grow. All other technological routes are completely abandoned. But if SpaceX is wrong. Bury the future of American space once again. Due to the reconstruction and restoration of the technical system, it takes a period of 10-15 years. And SpaceX's technological roadmap is extremely radical. The design of a starship's enclosed cargo hold is the biggest challenge and problem for this rocket in the next 10 years.
Musk's starship v3 should not be extended by 30 meters, but should separate the payload compartment and propulsion system. This is what the United States needs the most in 10-15 years.
Starships claim to be so cheap. One rocket costs 10 million dollars, which means that the second stage of the rocket can withstand 3 million dollars. In terms of today's aerospace payload prices, it's too cheap. With such a cheap second stage, what about a one-time use (now the Raptor engine can also be used as a one-time rocket engine, and the growth of reliability engineering takes time).
When Intel launched the integrated circuit processor, also known as the CPU, I remember it was like the 4004. Someone asked how to repair such a precise and miniature circuit? The response at the time was, does the $5 chip still need to be repaired? Just discard and replace it.
Musk's excessive marketing resulted in misleading government agencies and the public to make incorrect judgments.
That's the problem.
I never worry about the competition between China and the United States in aerospace.
It is clear that the cost of technology is not as low as rumored, and Musk's ledger is different from the company's standard ledger. If Musk's statement is true, the US tax system will shut down this morning.
The aerospace market in the United States is isolated, and no matter how strong SpaceX is, it is difficult to influence China. SpaceX's plan is overly radical. He only talked about the positive side, but didn't mention the problematic side. And there is not enough knowledge of aerospace details and understanding of industry. Many people cannot see the issues with SpaceX.
But the industry understands a lot.
The biggest problem at present for NASA is the division of views, the influence of neoliberalism on the administrative system, and the abandonment of the entire NASA technology system and operating methods built by technical bureaucrats (which collapsed around 2010), completely relying on elite private enterprises like Musk to save the American aerospace industry. Simply put, in the past, NASA had control over technology execution, only manufacturing outsourcing, The absolute control of technology belongs to the state. But now it's not the case, and technology property rights are no longer under control. NASA is now engaged in service procurement.
Unfortunately, this is absolutely wrong. Because the United States won in the competition between the United States and the Soviet Union in aerospace, it actually relied on public ownership, that is, cross industry integration of all American technological resources, and scientific industry cooperation. The completed Saturn 5 and Apollo programs have been leading until now. Nowadays, the US aerospace industry is mainly controlled by private individuals, with fierce competition among them. Technological advantages cannot be integrated and used separately.
SpaceX's own engine reserves are insufficient. But in fact, other companies can also use it, but now SpaceX is targeted by the entire industry. So he can't get many shelf products, and it's useless for Nasa to coordinate.
There is no sign of any improvement in this state now. So, there's nothing to worry about, let alone worry after 2030. In terms of layout, it was a complete failure
Starship will slowly be pulled down from the top position, just like Tesla does now.
