China's Space Program Thread II

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I'm going to say that China's obsession with hypergolic really hurt it's development of modern cryogenic rockets and engines in the past few decades, if it's 2024 and they still can't let go of them.

SpaceX and reusable rockets didn't pop out of the blue. Reusable rockets are only possible with advanced cryogenic engines that can deep throttle and restart multiple times. Spacex can develop this kind of engines because America has a vast well of institutional knowledge about cryogenic rockets dating back decades.
Man you sure are confused/poorly informed like heck.

An hypergolic rocket has similar performance to a LOX/Kerosene rocket in basically all aspects. The only reason why people have been dropping hypergolics from use is because of the toxicity of the propellant. LOX/Kerosene doesn't have better performance. The propellant density and Isp of both is basically the same.

As for reusability and throttling, hypergolic rockets can do that just as well. For example the Aestus engine can do multiple restarts.

The world's first rocket to reach space, the V-2, was powered with LOX/Ethanol. This is not that different from LOX/Kerosene. Claiming that cryogenic LOX is some kind of new novel propellant is bullshit. I mean the R-7 used to put Sputnik into orbit was LOX/Kerosene.
People switched from Ethanol to Kerosene because Kerosene was cheaper and a bit higher density. The reason why people started using hypergolics was because you could store a rocket fully fueled, and you could keep a rocket on standby at the pad for several days in a launch on warning posture. This is important for military rockets. Now that military rockets have switched to using solid fuel, that isn't important anymore.

Meanwhile we have China, who is one the OG space countries, having made orbit back in 1970, somehow taking until 2015 to launch it's first cryogenic rocket.
There is nothing particularly problematic about handling LOX or even liquid Methane. Like I said, the original V-2 rocket, it used LOX. The Soviets gave the PRC a license to the R-2 rocket, which is basically an extended V-2. This was called the Dongfeng-1 and it used LOX/Ethanol.

The real complicated cryogenic fuel to handle is liquid Hydrogen.

the same way China's experince with cryogenic engines is going to help it make resauble rockets. The difference is that China has literally less than a decade worth of experince with cryogenic rockets, compared to America's 50+ years.
I guess China's very first rocket, Dongfeng-1, was "cryogenic" by your definition. And for your information the difference between designing a liquid cryogenic and hypergolic rocket, it isn't that big. It is basically the igniter. An hypergolic rocket doesn't need an igniter because the fuel starts burning by itself once you mix the propellants together. And a cryogenic rocket requires an igniter, it could be a capsule with hypergolics in it, or it could be something similar to a plasma torch. The rest of the engine is basically just pumps, an injector, and a nozzle. Since you are using liquid fuel these are basically the same. It is just that you need to dimension the pumps according to the mass you need to move. If the propellant has similar density, like LOX which has similar density to N2O4, then you can basically use the same pump if you want to.

Oh and it's not just engines. Chilling and compressing the propellant and preventing leaks is another important technology that can't be learned with hypergolic, not to mention the speed and time you can prepare the rocket.
What, you think you can leak hypergolic propellant? Really? You are going to leak corrosive toxic propellant? As for chilled and densified propellant, the Soviets did that with some versions of the R-7.

That's what's happening. China has less then a decade of knowledge of cryogenic engines and rockets and suddenly it's tasked with the most advanced kind of cryogenic engines that needs advanced features like deep throttling, restarting and full flow staged combustion.
Their full flow staged combustion rocket isn't in service yet. And look at the specifications of the YF-100. It is deep throttling.

What engine burns hydrazine other then a handful of old rockets? What spin off technology does billions of dollars of funding that goes into hydrazine rockets every year produces?
Hydrazine or UDMH is still used in quite a lot of last stages. You know the thing which puts the actual satellite in orbit. And many satellites still use it to move in space. The last stage of most ICBMs also uses hypergolic rockets to deploy MIRV warheads.

Oh and cyrogenic rockets are just better in performance. It's just physics. You simply can't get good performance out of hydrazine.
Bullshit. N2O4/UDMH has roughly similar performance to LOX/Kerosene or LOX/Methane. Like I said, it isn't used anymore because of toxicity. And the first full flow staged combustion rocket engine ever to be designed the RD-270, guess what it used for fuel.

I also think that China needs to take its hypergolic rockets out of service. They need to replace the Long March 2/3/4 with the Long March 7. But this has nothing to do with performance. It is just because of toxicity. It's not a good idea to be dumping rocket stages with toxic fuel in them overland.
 
Last edited:

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
CAS-SPACE completed a cold flow test of Kinetica-2 stage prototype, in preparation for the following static fire.

Kinetica-2 is a CBC rocket with 751t thrust & 628t liftoff mass.

5.6t/700km SSO

7.8t/500km SSO

12t/LEO.


Image


this is insane, there are so many heavy rockets currently under development by Chinese private firms. Launching/payload capacity is going to increase many folds in coming years. this decade is really interesting to follow.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
CAS-SPACE completed a cold flow test of Kinetica-2 stage prototype, in preparation for the following static fire.

Kinetica-2 is a CBC rocket with 751t thrust & 628t liftoff mass.

5.6t/700km SSO

7.8t/500km SSO

12t/LEO.


Image


this is insane, there are so many heavy rockets currently under development by Chinese private firms. Launching/payload capacity is going to increase many folds in coming years. this decade is really interesting to follow.
It seems that the twitter post confused Kinetica-3 with Kinetica-2.
1703700900631.png
 

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
An hypergolic rocket has similar performance to a LOX/Kerosene rocket in basically all aspects. The only reason why people have been dropping hypergolics from use is because of the toxicity of the propellant. LOX/Kerosene doesn't have better performance. The propellant density and Isp of both is basically the same.
N2O4/UDMH does have similar ISP to Kerosene/LOX, but modern propellant chilling and insulation means more fuel can be loaded, which is still today an continous advancing techologny.

There is nothing particularly problematic about handling LOX or even liquid Methane. Like I said, the original V-2 rocket, it used LOX. The Soviets gave the PRC a license to the R-2 rocket, which is basically an extended V-2. This was called the Dongfeng-1 and it used LOX/Ethanol.
So why didn't China develop cryogenic rockets earlier? Probably people like you who waffle on about the tiny little potential benefits of keeping hypergolics in service instead of just embracing new technology,
Claiming that cryogenic LOX is some kind of new novel propellant is bullshit.
When did I claim that? I'm just saying that China needs experience with developing engines for that kind of fuel if they are to make better rocket engines.
There is nothing particularly problematic about handling LOX or even liquid Methane. Like I said, the original V-2 rocket, it used LOX. The Soviets gave the PRC a license to the R-2 rocket, which is basically an extended V-2. This was called the Dongfeng-1 and it used LOX/Ethanol.
There's a big difference in handling those fuels and making a cutting edge engine that can push the performance to the limit while having capabilities like deep throttling and restarting
What, you think you can leak hypergolic propellant? Really? You are going to leak corrosive toxic propellant?
Preventing leaks of a giant red clouds of death is very different from invisible hydrogen, methane or even liquid oxygen leaks. And guess, what, unlike N2O4/UDMH, we tend to use lots of hydrogen/methane/oxygen in lots of industries, so lesson learned on how to prevent and detect the invisible and common leakage of this fuels can be applied to dozens of industries.
And for your information the difference between designing a liquid cryogenic and hypergolic rocket, it isn't that big
Other then the alloys needed to withstand the compressed oxygen at high temperatures, which tends to melt most alloys, pure oxygen being so chemically reactive, that a very important factor that you seem to have left out. Oh and the cryogenic chilling of the propellant, the insulation needed for the tanks without weighting too much(NASA invented a highly lightweight but extremely effective insulating foam for their rockets-the orange foam that you see on the space shuttle, which has gone on to see many applications in other areas), the ground support launch sites that has to store the chilled propellants and transfer them to the rocket right before take off, potential boiloff if the rocket sees too much delays, the careful design of the rocket that has to make two giant tanks of liquid fuel at vastly different temperatures play nice-which has caused more then one rocket failure. And the engine has to made out of alloys that don't turn brittle at extremely cold temperature.

Oh and flowing such cold liquid in a rocket's piping has it's own issues that needs solving. For example, for cryogenic rockets, you need to "pre-chill" the engine before take off by running some of the fuel though the engine's pumping to prevent thermal shock. Not only is the engine pre-chilled to protect itself from the cold propellant, it’s also done to prevent the propellant from thermal shock from the warm engine. If the propellant boils before reaching the impellers in the pumps, it can cause cavitation, which can cause damage to the engine and fuck with the pumps. It's part of why ground support for a cryogenic rocket is so important and takes so long. Not easy considering how complex an rocket engine is and how it's supposed to just leak a tiny amount of fuel into the piping and not blow it's entire load on the launch pad before ignition. This process can take hours and the engine has to be dotted with sensors to ensure that the engine is evenly cooled and at the right pace. Oh and running the hot rocket exhaust right next to an engine that's cooled to -200 degrees also presents engeering challenges. You don't have to deal with this in hypergolics. Which is a plus I guess, but not worth hampering your development of modern rocket engines.

Granted it's more on ground support then the actual rocket design, but still important.

Oh and see what I mean by common design? All cryogenic rockets regardless of fuel types do this and they can all benefit from experience in this area. And since the oxygen is the main issue with your engines, designing an alloy to be chemically resistant to oxygen is going to help for methane, hydrogen or RP-1 rockets. If someone designs an alloy that can withstand being at room temperature and -200 a minute later to help speed up chill down, it can be applied to all sort of uses. If someone develops an alloy to prevent all those pesky hydrogen leaks, that alloy has many use in any industry that uses pure hydrogen, which is a lot. If someone finds a way to cool the fuels quicker and more effectively, again, many uses in many areas. You don't see this kind of benefits when working with such a niche fuel like N2O4/UDMH.

But nah man, the only difference between hypergolic rockets and cryogenic rockets is just the igniter. You're the expert.
It is basically the igniter. An hypergolic rocket doesn't need an igniter because the fuel starts burning by itself once you mix the propellants together. And a cryogenic rocket requires an igniter,
Considering how complex rocket engines are designed and how difficult it is to start and re-ignite a rocket is, which is very important to a reusable rocket. That's a bigggg difference. It's like saying that a electric car and ICE car are basically the same because it has a body and 4 wheel, it's called a car and the "only" difference is the engine. And see above to see some other massive differences between the two.

If you simplify shit so much, you might as well summarize the different between a reusable rocket and an expandable rocket as "one lands, the other doesn't" and leave out all the technical details that makes a reusable rocket possible, like all the complicated engine design needed for throttling, restarting, the landing algorithm, the rocket gimbals etc etc. What's the difference between a plane and a tank? One flies, the other doesn't, only one difference, they aren't so different after all I guess.

See what I mean by lost capability? If you're mainly working with N2O4/UDMH that doesn't need an igniter, of course the complicated technology behind re-igniting rocket engine in flight multiple times is going to fall behind, which again, is very important if you want to develop a reusable rocket. And like I said earlier, all the experience with thermal shock and working with cryogenic fuel, that shit needs time, institutional knowledge and hands on experience to learn. You can't just read it out of a book. China isn't gaining this knowledge without operating cryogenic rockets regularly.

Fun fact, when China launched it's first cryogenic rocket in 2015, some of the older private companies like Landspace were already founded. Ispace was founded in 2016. American/Chinese private space companies drew it's staff from the government sector, a huge chunk of SpaceX employees were former NASA that had experience with cryogenic rocket/fuel systems. While for China, a lot of the private companies were probably former CALT engineers that had little to no experience with cryogenic rockets considering that the first cryogenic rocket launched after the company was founded, especially not for ground support, which as we saw above, is also important. No wonder it's taking some of this early companies so long to get a cryogenic rocket in operation.
Hydrazine or UDMH is still used in quite a lot of last stages. You know the thing which puts the actual satellite in orbit. And many satellites still use it to move in space. The last stage of most ICBMs also uses hypergolic rockets to deploy MIRV warheads.
Oh wow, those tiny edge cases sure do compare to the thousands of uses of RP-1, hydrogen, liquid oxygen and methane in dozens of industries other then rocketry.

N2O4/UDMH has roughly similar performance to LOX/Kerosene or LOX/Methane.
Not with modern propellant chilling and compression methods to allow for more fuel for volume to be fitted onto a rocket. This is still being worked on and improved.
I also think that China needs to take its hypergolic rockets out of service. They need to replace the Long March 2/3/4 with the Long March 7. But this has nothing to do with performance. It is just because of toxicity. It's not a good idea to be dumping rocket stages with toxic fuel in them overland.
And work with modern fuels see many cross over technologies that can benefit over industries. Hypergolics are a dead end for many reasons.
As for chilled and densified propellant, the Soviets did that with some versions of the R-7.
And is China doing it with their hypergolics? No? Then why bring it up?
 
Last edited:

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I think we need to leave spacex out of these conversations

the question should be how much payload capacity to Leo or geo do they need every year going forward

and where are they at? For example, they need satellite network up in leo for 6g. How long will it take to get there
 

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
And for your information the difference between designing a liquid cryogenic and hypergolic rocket, it isn't that big.
Oh and just to add on a few more. Expander cycle engines literally cannot work without cryogenic fuels like liquid hydrogen or liquid methane. N2O4/UDMH freezes at around -60c and cannot provide an expander cycle the temperature difference needed to operate even if cooled to just above freezing point.

If you're working with liquid hydrogen, you need to design the engine and tanks in such a way to vent off the constant boil off. And of course liquid hydrogen comes with hydrogen embrittlement and the need to minimize constant leaks.

If you are using regenerative cooling for your rocket nozzle, cryogenic fuels work much better compared to room temperature fuels.

There's a reason why I said that China was limiting herself off of many technologies by focusing so heavily on hypergolics, they are pretty much a dead end.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
You claim this numerous times, but don't seem to have a concrete example. Space is very very important. Even the earliest days of rocketry, the ability to put things into space was treated as the most important national security issue. Of course the ability to sent up a ICBM and the early warning satellites to detect them was the most important part of a nation's nuclear deterrence. There was a reason why Sputnik was so important despite it being more of a "glorified science experiment" that didn't do anything.

How can you say something like "Chinese government still seems to view space access as more of a glorified science experiment" with a straight face? Maybe in the 1960s. Today, it's even more important then ever, with GPS/Beidou, recon satellites, space warfare, data links, communication satellites. Sure SpaceX upped the game and proved that you can start sending up massive mega-constellations but space was already important before that.

If true, then the PRC is perhaps one of the most incompetent government I have ever seen. And if Spacex and the importance of space on the Ukraine/Russian war didn't wake China up?

And even if it was true, it doesn't matter anyway. We have seen that it doesn't take much money to change. SpaceX wasn't throwing tens of billions around and private Chinese rocket companies are constructing factories capable of producing dozens of rockets and hundreds of modern rocket engines a year with access to funding in the hundreds of millions of yuan range. China could have treated space as a "glorified science experiment" and still have modernised and phased out hypergolic on a shoestring budget.

What I mean by "glorified science experiment" is that the Chinese government until recently seemed to have viewed space access as a scientific and technology domain that did not require scaled orbital access that was significantly greater than say, what the legacy space powers (pre-SpaceX) were able to bring.
Their plans for CZ-9 for example, up to now remains to be only one or two launches a year for the 2030s at most, rather than the dozens or 100+ that SpaceX had wanted for Starship/Super Heavy.

That's what I mean by a "glorified science experiment". The Chinese government in the 90s, 2000s and even 2010s never seemed to view space access to that kind of scale.


People and even the agencies themselves pride themselves on the number of launches. They even set goals for that, "We aim for 60 launches a year" instead of setting themselves a target for mass or number of satellites to orbit.

I've always viewed that as a reflection of the capabilities they have (and possibly the fact that launches/year is easier for communication than tonnage, which is a global phenomenon in space reporting), rather than some sort belief that number of launches are more important than payload to orbit.
I don't think that specifically is an issue -- there isn't some conspiracy to minimize PRC annual payload to orbit because they want to focus on annual launches/year.



I'm not asking for China to be the forefront of technology. I'm not asking for China to completely change the industry like Spacex did. All I'm asking is for China to modernize her rockets. Like I said, no other space agency, not even ISRO, uses hypergolics the same way China does.

Sure they didn't expect SpaceX to change the game so suddenly. But the least you can do, in any industry, is stick to the most advanced technology possible. At the very least, when some new technology does come to shake the status quo, you can quickly react and develop.

Even if SpaceX didn't exist and reusable rockets were physically impossible, it still would be better to move towards a fleet of pure cryogenic rockets. Just the PR boost and not having to deal with toxic rockets crashing onto the countryside would be worth it.

As I wrote before, the easiest way to do what you suggest is for China to just cease operations of hypergolics and accept a significant short/medium term reduction of annual launches and payload to orbit.

Until they view space access to be as vital as something like semiconductors (or even more important, in some respects), then they're going to continue to have the space launch access equivalent of of "continue having ZTZ-59 variants in service for ages".



I think we need to leave spacex out of these conversations

the question should be how much payload capacity to Leo or geo do they need every year going forward

and where are they at? For example, they need satellite network up in leo for 6g. How long will it take to get there

I think SpaceX can be a useful reference to the thread's topics if it is contained, in that it can serve as a guide for future PRC launch capabilities (or indeed what high capacity launch/access can achieve in general, for any nation or company in the world), or to discuss and review PRC space policies/goals.

But people should also be aware that simply posting about the differences in launch capacity/access and bemoaning why the gap isn't going to be immediately reduced in the short term etc, isn't useful... in the same way that ignoring SpaceX and what they are able to demonstrate with both Falcon 9 and their pursuits of Starship may be able to do.

Because if SpaceX is able to get Starship/Super Heavy up and running even at a fraction of their actual launch rate ambitions, then the implications for orbital access is rather significant (that is to say, even if we ignore Starship's utility for moon and mars missions and pretend that Starship will never be used for those missions, the mere existence of Starship/Super Heavy for LEO and GEO access is a huge gain in capability).
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
What I mean by "glorified science experiment" is that the Chinese government until recently seemed to have viewed space access as a scientific and technology domain that did not require scaled orbital access that was significantly greater than say, what the legacy space powers (pre-SpaceX) were able to bring.
Their plans for CZ-9 for example, up to now remains to be only one or two launches a year for the 2030s at most, rather than the dozens or 100+ that SpaceX had wanted for Starship/Super Heavy.

That's what I mean by a "glorified science experiment". The Chinese government in the 90s, 2000s and even 2010s never seemed to view space access to that kind of scale.
That may have been the thinking historically, but I have a very hard time believing the Chinese government still thinks that way given how drastically the game has changed.

As for the CZ-9, what's important is that it has a competitive payload and architecture. The important thing is getting it flying ASAP, the missions planned for it and its launch cadence can change quickly once it exists.
 

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
As I wrote before, the easiest way to do what you suggest is for China to just cease operations of hypergolics and accept a significant short/medium term reduction of annual launches and payload to orbit.
See, that might have been the case, if not for the fact that like 5 chinese private rocket companies have all stated that their various rocket factories will be capable of producing dozens of rockets/hundreds of engines every year, all those factories built within the last 5 years for brand new rocket designs and on a shoestring budget of a few hundred million yuan. If they can mass produce modern reusable engines that fast, with such a fraction of the resources that something like CALT has, then I can't see how CALT couldn't have built enough infrastructure 7 years ago to produce enough long march 7/6/8s to fully meet China's launch needs today, without sucking enough resources to impact the launch rate.

No other space agency was stuck on purely hypergolics that long too. It took almost 50 years for China to launch her first cryogenic LOX rocket in 2015 after making it into orbit in 1970s.

I think someone really high up on the ladder is just really reluctant to move on to cyrogenic rockets. Maybe he owns the plot of land that the current hypergolic factories sits on, or he's just in love with hypergolic rockets and doesn't want them phased out.
 
Top