Re: china manned space - news and views
Do any posters think we might see a more co-operative space effort with the US under Obama
ENGAGING CHINA IN SPACE, Part 1
A fresh start or a protracted showdown?
By Peter J Brown
United States president-elect Barack Obama has some tough choices to make with respect to how he will deals with China in space. He might prefer to proclaim the advantages of cooperation with China in terms of space exploration and other activities, but the execution of any plan where the US is perceived as letting its guard down is going to draw a lot of criticism from conservatives, a wing of the US Congress which has been deeply suspicious of the Chinese space program from the start.
In Section 3 of "The Impact of China’s Space Program on US
Security", the latest report issued last week by the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission, it states:
The potential effect of China’s space program on US national security is significant. First, it is steadily increasing the vulnerability of US assets. Improvements in its imagery and intelligence satellites will enable China to locate US assets such as carrier battle groups more accurately and rapidly and from greater distances. Improved communications satellites will enable China to pass important targeting information more quickly and securely to guided missiles or other weapon systems. Improved GPS-type navigational and weather satellites will enable missiles to fly more accurately to their targets. Finally, the cycle is completed by the battle damage assessment that imagery and intelligence satellites provide to Chinese commanders as weapon systems engage their targets.
Many US weapon systems and deployed military forces depend on space support for targeting, navigational, and communications support. A large portion of the US space systems’ architecture consists of ground-based nodes and centers located around the United States and the globe far from the battlefield.
The ground nodes and centers in space or on the ground are critical elements of US military power. As such, they are potential targets for China. Some Chinese strategists believe that space-related installations, including ground stations, are so critical that they are valid targets during a conflict. China could choose to engage these critical assets physically with missiles or non-kinetically through means such as a computer network attack.
In the 21st century, any showdown over Taiwan in particular involving the US and China could immediately escalate into a series of attacks on space assets, according to Eric Sayers, a national security research assistant at the conservative Heritage Foundation, who addressed this scenario in the October issue of the Armed Forces Journal.
"At present, and according to the 2009 Pentagon review of China’s military capabilities, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has judged that the possession of proficient anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies could deter the US from entering into a conflict over Taiwan," wrote Sayers. "According to the judgments of PLA strategists, the US is unlikely or less likely to intervene in conflicts where it runs the risk of being the target of a space 'shock and awe' strike which may leave its conventional forces seriously disadvantaged against Chinese forces and equally incapacitated in other global theaters of operation."
As a result of these and other considerations, the incoming Obama administration must cope with numerous constraints which limit its options in terms of any wide-ranging bilateral space-related agreements with China, according to Eric Hagt, China program director at the World Security Institute in Washington, DC.
"Obama’s overall tone has suggested he would be far more open to discussions with others on key space security issues. But that is different from cooperation," said Hagt. "I see the [prospect of] the US and China working together on space programs of any substance [as] highly unlikely, simply because the larger political and security relationship, not to mention a change in legislation [impacting on US International Traffic in Arms Regulations controls and sensitive export laws] would need to be in place before actual cooperation between space agencies can occur."
Hagt points to important and relevant statements made by Obama about policy that will help set a better tone, including Obama's endorsement of a worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites.
Here is an excerpt of "Advancing the frontiers of space exploration", posted at
.
Keeping our space assets free of threats of disruption will be an Obama priority. This is not only a military concern, but also an issue relevant to commercial and scientific operators. Developing an international approach to minimizing space debris, enhancing capabilities for space situational awareness, and managing increasingly complex space operations are important steps towards sustaining our space operations.
• Negotiating Agreements on "Rules of the Road": Barack Obama will work with other nations to develop "rules of the road" for space to ensure all nations have a common understanding of acceptable behavior.
• Opposing Weaponization of Space: Space assets are increasingly important to our national security and our economy, but they are also extremely vulnerable. China's successful test of an anti-satellite missile in January 2007 signaled the beginning of a potential new arms race in space. Barack Obama opposes the stationing of weapons in space and the development of anti-satellite weapons. He believes the United States must show leadership by engaging other nations in discussions of how best to stop the slow slide towards a new battlefield.
• Protecting America's Space Assets: Recognizing their vulnerability, Obama will work to protect our assets in space by pursuing new technologies
and capabilities that allow us to avoid attacks and recover from them quickly. The Operationally Responsive Space program, which uses smaller, more nimble space assets to make US systems more robust and less vulnerable is a way to invest in this capability.
"He said he would only support a missile defense system that was proven to work [which is] probably code for a much more cautious approach than [President George W] Bush. The first is a direct reference to space and the second, while indirect, is very important since many, including China, see a multi-layered missile defense program as strategically threatening and destabilizing," said Hagt.
John Logsdon, professor emeritus at George Washington University and former director of GWU's Space Policy Institute, also finds Obama's detailed space policy statement - which was made in August - to be highly supportive of increased cooperation.
"[Obama] identified enhanced international cooperation as a key element of his approach to civilian space activities. I expect that the preliminary dialogue on areas of interest that has already started between NASA and its Chinese counterparts will continue and perhaps increase in priority," said Logsdon. "But our space relationship with China is at a very early stage, and we will need to cultivate mutual understanding and trust for it to develop into a significant partnership. With respect to national security space, I think it is up to China to demonstrate that it will not continue the kind of developments that lead to the 2007 ASAT test."
Logsdon describes Obama as opposing weapons in space, but unsure as to how exactly he will approach achieving this objective. "[Whether this will happen] through a treaty-based regime or through a 'bottom-up' process of developing rules of the road, a code of conduct, or similar incremental steps towards space security remains to be seen," said Logsdon.
Given the current state of US-China space affairs, the choice for the new Obama administration is really one of continuing to view all Chinese space activities primarily as a threat to the US - which could be technological, to military space assets, or political and leadership threats in the area of exploration - or it could try to identify areas where cooperation is possible, while acknowledging that competition will likely continue in others, according to Dr Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the US Naval War College.
"Few relationships are purely cooperative or competitive. It appears that the Obama administration will be more open to the latter, in line with broad positions already stated by the new administration indicating that diplomacy will have more of a role in US foreign and security policy considerations," said Johnson-Freese.
Hagt asserts Obama will probably put less emphasis on - and reduce funding for - military space control and force application programs, and put more on space protection, space situational awareness (SSA), and operationally responsive space (ORS) as well as space science exploration.
"That is, he will try to change the perception that the US strives for absolute dominance in space as the Bush administration has done," said Hagt. "Banning space weapons, along with other technical and policy measures, to protect US national interests in space is an imperfect solution but Obama realizes it is the best one."
All of this depends on increasing mutual trust and to accomplish that, there has to be a significant increase in transparency, something that the US accuses the Chinese of having ignored for far too long.
"A greater degree of transparency is essential if cooperation beyond simple data exchanges or coordinated mission
is to develop. The US has a good record of transparency in its cooperative undertakings, [and now] it is up to China to demonstrate a similar approach to working together," said Logsdon.
When discussing transparency in space, Brian Weeden, technical consultant at the Colorado-based Secure World Foundation, conjures up the Cold War, and the fact that not so long ago both sides realized the value in using space to verify arsenals and arms control arrangements.
"Both sides were wary to disrupt each other's satellites for fear of destabilizing the situation," said Weeden. "However, those lessons don't appear to have been transferred to the post-Cold War regime in the area of SSA. All the states with such capability tend to view SSA data as military secrets and rarely share it with the world. The end result of this is reduced transparency and increased tensions. The real irony is that much of the positional information on satellites that the states attempt to keep secret is not, and is easily obtained by anyone with a backyard telescope and an inquisitive mind."
Weeden is hopeful that all parties in space will realize the benefits that could be gained by sharing certain types of SSA data.
"It would not only increase transparency and stability, but also the pooling of data would benefit all parties. Europe is already making some progress in this area with the European Space Situational Awareness System currently under consideration," said Weeden, "A data sharing policy within Europe would allow for all the members to access SSA data on some level and to use it for a variety of reasons, the most significant being safer operation of satellites."
Johnson-Freese has looked closely at efforts by the US and China to address transparency, and she advocates a subtle but important shift in the US approach.
"Transparency is of course important as an enabler for more cooperation and an overall better relationship between China and the US," said Johnson-Freese. "It is part of a need to better understand the Chinese political process and their 'ways of working'. Part of that too is communication."
For example, some Chinese delegates at recent space conferences have suggested that the word transparency carries connotations in Mandarin that they are not comfortable with - ie that it suggests revealing information in ways that could be associated with espionage, adds Johnson-Freese. "The suggestion was made that requesting clarity of intent might work better. While I think some lack of transparency on the part of the Chinese has been cultural and intentional, if phrasing our requests differently gets better results, I think we should try it."
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine, USA.
Security", the latest report issued last week by the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission, it states:
The potential effect of China’s space program on US national security is significant. First, it is steadily increasing the vulnerability of US assets. Improvements in its imagery and intelligence satellites will enable China to locate US assets such as carrier battle groups more accurately and rapidly and from greater distances. Improved communications satellites will enable China to pass important targeting information more quickly and securely to guided missiles or other weapon systems. Improved GPS-type navigational and weather satellites will enable missiles to fly more accurately to their targets. Finally, the cycle is completed by the battle damage assessment that imagery and intelligence satellites provide to Chinese commanders as weapon systems engage their targets.
Many US weapon systems and deployed military forces depend on space support for targeting, navigational, and communications support. A large portion of the US space systems’ architecture consists of ground-based nodes and centers located around the United States and the globe far from the battlefield.
The ground nodes and centers in space or on the ground are critical elements of US military power. As such, they are potential targets for China. Some Chinese strategists believe that space-related installations, including ground stations, are so critical that they are valid targets during a conflict. China could choose to engage these critical assets physically with missiles or non-kinetically through means such as a computer network attack.
n the 21st century, any showdown over Taiwan in particular involving the US and China could immediately escalate into a series of attacks on space assets, according to Eric Sayers, a national security research assistant at the conservative Heritage Foundation, who addressed this scenario in the October issue of the Armed Forces Journal.
"At present, and according to the 2009 Pentagon review of China’s military capabilities, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has judged that the possession of proficient anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies could deter the US from entering into a conflict over Taiwan," wrote Sayers. "According to the judgments of PLA strategists, the US is unlikely or less likely to intervene in conflicts where it runs the risk of being the target of a space 'shock and awe' strike which may leave its conventional forces seriously disadvantaged against Chinese forces and equally incapacitated in other global theaters of operation."
As a result of these and other considerations, the incoming Obama administration must cope with numerous constraints which limit its options in terms of any wide-ranging bilateral space-related agreements with China, according to Eric Hagt, China program director at the World Security Institute in Washington, DC.
"Obama’s overall tone has suggested he would be far more open to discussions with others on key space security issues. But that is different from cooperation," said Hagt. "I see the [prospect of] the US and China working together on space programs of any substance [as] highly unlikely, simply because the larger political and security relationship, not to mention a change in legislation [impacting on US International Traffic in Arms Regulations controls and sensitive export laws] would need to be in place before actual cooperation between space agencies can occur."
Hagt points to important and relevant statements made by Obama about policy that will help set a better tone, including Obama's endorsement of a worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites.
Here is an excerpt of "Advancing the frontiers of space exploration", posted at .
Keeping our space assets free of threats of disruption will be an Obama priority. This is not only a military concern, but also an issue relevant to commercial and scientific operators. Developing an international approach to minimizing space debris, enhancing capabilities for space situational awareness, and managing increasingly complex space operations are important steps towards sustaining our space operations.
• Negotiating Agreements on "Rules of the Road": Barack Obama will work with other nations to develop "rules of the road" for space to ensure all nations have a common understanding of acceptable behavior.
• Opposing Weaponization of Space: Space assets are increasingly important to our national security and our economy, but they are also extremely vulnerable. China's successful test of an anti-satellite missile in January 2007 signaled the beginning of a potential new arms race in space. Barack Obama opposes the stationing of weapons in space and the development of anti-satellite weapons. He believes the United States must show leadership by engaging other nations in discussions of how best to stop the slow slide towards a new battlefield.
• Protecting America's Space Assets: Recognizing their vulnerability, Obama will work to protect our assets in space by pursuing new technologies
and capabilities that allow us to avoid attacks and recover from them quickly. The Operationally Responsive Space program, which uses smaller, more nimble space assets to make US systems more robust and less vulnerable is a way to invest in this capability.
"He said he would only support a missile defense system that was proven to work [which is] probably code for a much more cautious approach than [President George W] Bush. The first is a direct reference to space and the second, while indirect, is very important since many, including China, see a multi-layered missile defense program as strategically threatening and destabilizing," said Hagt.
John Logsdon, professor emeritus at George Washington University and former director of GWU's Space Policy Institute, also finds Obama's detailed space policy statement - which was made in August - to be highly supportive of increased cooperation.
"[Obama] identified enhanced international cooperation as a key element of his approach to civilian space activities. I expect that the preliminary dialogue on areas of interest that has already started between NASA and its Chinese counterparts will continue and perhaps increase in priority," said Logsdon. "But our space relationship with China is at a very early stage, and we will need to cultivate mutual understanding and trust for it to develop into a significant partnership. With respect to national security space, I think it is up to China to demonstrate that it will not continue the kind of developments that lead to the 2007 ASAT test."
Logsdon describes Obama as opposing weapons in space, but unsure as to how exactly he will approach achieving this objective. "[Whether this will happen] through a treaty-based regime or through a 'bottom-up' process of developing rules of the road, a code of conduct, or similar incremental steps towards space security remains to be seen," said Logsdon.
Given the current state of US-China space affairs, the choice for the new Obama administration is really one of continuing to view all Chinese space activities primarily as a threat to the US - which could be technological, to military space assets, or political and leadership threats in the area of exploration - or it could try to identify areas where cooperation is possible, while acknowledging that competition will likely continue in others, according to Dr Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the US Naval War College.
"Few relationships are purely cooperative or competitive. It appears that the Obama administration will be more open to the latter, in line with broad positions already stated by the new administration indicating that diplomacy will have more of a role in US foreign and security policy considerations," said Johnson-Freese.
Hagt asserts Obama will probably put less emphasis on - and reduce funding for - military space control and force application programs, and put more on space protection, space situational awareness (SSA), and operationally responsive space (ORS) as well as space science exploration.
"That is, he will try to change the perception that the US strives for absolute dominance in space as the Bush administration has done," said Hagt. "Banning space weapons, along with other technical and policy measures, to protect US national interests in space is an imperfect solution but Obama realizes it is the best one."
All of this depends on increasing mutual trust and to accomplish that, there has to be a significant increase in transparency, something that the US accuses the Chinese of having ignored for far too long.
"A greater degree of transparency is essential if cooperation beyond simple data exchanges or coordinated mission is to develop. The US has a good record of transparency in its cooperative undertakings, [and now] it is up to China to demonstrate a similar approach to working together," said Logsdon.
When discussing transparency in space, Brian Weeden, technical consultant at the Colorado-based Secure World Foundation, conjures up the Cold War, and the fact that not so long ago both sides realized the value in using space to verify arsenals and arms control arrangements.
"Both sides were wary to disrupt each other's satellites for fear of destabilizing the situation," said Weeden. "However, those lessons don't appear to have been transferred to the post-Cold War regime in the area of SSA. All the states with such capability tend to view SSA data as military secrets and rarely share it with the world. The end result of this is reduced transparency and increased tensions. The real irony is that much of the positional information on satellites that the states attempt to keep secret is not, and is easily obtained by anyone with a backyard telescope and an inquisitive mind."
Weeden is hopeful that all parties in space will realize the benefits that could be gained by sharing certain types of SSA data.
"It would not only increase transparency and stability, but also the pooling of data would benefit all parties. Europe is already making some progress in this area with the European Space Situational Awareness System currently under consideration," said Weeden, "A data sharing policy within Europe would allow for all the members to access SSA data on some level and to use it for a variety of reasons, the most significant being safer operation of satellites."
Johnson-Freese has looked closely at efforts by the US and China to address transparency, and she advocates a subtle but important shift in the US approach.
"Transparency is of course important as an enabler for more cooperation and an overall better relationship between China and the US," said Johnson-Freese. "It is part of a need to better understand the Chinese political process and their 'ways of working'. Part of that too is communication."
For example, some Chinese delegates at recent space conferences have suggested that the word transparency carries connotations in Mandarin that they are not comfortable with - ie that it suggests revealing information in ways that could be associated with espionage, adds Johnson-Freese. "The suggestion was made that requesting clarity of intent might work better. While I think some lack of transparency on the part of the Chinese has been cultural and intentional, if phrasing our requests differently gets better results, I think we should try it."
Peter J Brown is a satellite journalist from Maine, USA.
