China's SCS Strategy Thread

[lilzz]

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MODERATOR NOTICE: This thread was originally about the Spratly Islands and Vietnam's activites with respect to development and defense. It was started in 2007 and had little traffic. More recently we have had a lot of discussion about the South China Sea and the Islands there, as they relate to the use of China's carrier group, the new submarines that Vietnam has purchased and the general growth in naval power in the entire South China Sea area.

The new posts are being moved here so that discussion can occur on this thread and take other threads off topic. Thank you.

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Recently, Vietnam has partnered up /w BP oil company to explore and drill in the spratly island for oil. Chinese has released strong words regarding the move as infringing chinese interest in the south china sea.

They were already two wars against vietnam in 1974 and 1988 for paracel and spratly island. Looks another one is imminent. Vietnam bring in the foreign companies and figure China is tied down in taiwan issue and won't risk against them in spratly.

What military options available against the Vietnamese navy? Vietnam has stepped up in acquiring and soviet missiles ship and planes to counter china.

Does china has to wait till the carrier project finish. around 2010? The air fighters are limited due to long distance from Hainan. Seems /w no carrier, china currently tied down. The vietnam has advantage due to close to support from the land.

 

[szbd]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

I think first, negociation, then economic measures are enough. Vietnam is tied up with China in land and economy. The strength of Vietnam is not a match with China.

 

[Kilo636]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

Does china has to wait till the carrier project finish. around 2010? The air fighters are limited due to long distance from Hainan. Seems /w no carrier, china currently tied down. The vietnam has advantage due to close to support from the land.

PLAAF and PLANAF has air refueling capabilities supporting J-8H. Su-30MKK can carry more than enough fuel of comabt radius within spratly island from Hainan. JH-7A to can carry drop tank and is also within the island from Hainan. WHat is there to afraid of Vietnam arm forces?

But as what szbd says,economy pressure will comes first and from the present situation of taiwan and US presence,all military option is out of question. What I suggest China can do is a tit for tat. Send their CNPC ship and drill at that area. If Vietnam navy openly fired at China ship. It will give China the license to start a limited protective war without foreign criticising as aggressor....

NO way,Vietnam navy can match PLAN...

 

[joshuatree]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

What does the Vietnam navy have these days? Also, what about the other countries laying claim to the Spratlys? How are they reacting?

 

[adeptitus]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

The area in question lays outside of the joint resource exploration agreement between PRC, PH, and Vietnam. The agreement also did not prohibit exploration of resources outside of the specified area. If the PRC didn't want Vietnam drilling, they should have specified the terms in the agreement or expand the agreement's area/coverage. But it's a 2-way street, by doing so the PRC would also have to give something up.

IMO the gas field in question is a minor one. I have a funny feeling that the best petro & LNG fields in the area has already been tapped by the Malaysians. When PRC, PH, and Vietnam was just getting into the game in early 1990s, the Malays had 90+ off-shore wells already pumping (and exporting about half of the production). Assuming the oil deposits spread over a wide area, someone pumping from their backyard will delete the oil in your backyard. So the Chinese and Vietnamese are basically fighting over table scrap (pockets of LNG) at this point.

The Vietnamese navy is in no condition to confront the PLAN at this time.

 

[lilzz]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

What happen is the the areas of vietnam took over has oil, whereas chinese areas have no oil dposit. China like to have joint development /w vietnam.
but Vietnam now is acting alone.

Vietnam trying to bring the indians maybe US into the picture. They know they can't face China alone.

From what I read, Vietnam has the following ships from russia

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Tarantul class missile boats
Project 11661 Gepard frigates
they planning to get Kilo Subs

Got Su-27 planes.

WHen the chinese planes go to spratly, they need auxilary oil tank. but if the viet planes intercept them half-way. Then the chinese planes have to dump the auxilary oil tank.

The vietnameses might have inferior hardwares but they are very shrewd.
They 'll hit you when you leave. Spratly is closer to vietnam than hainan.

 

[szbd]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

Spratly spread from the middle to the south of south china sea. And you can only drill oil from shallow waters, which means, close to somebody's land. I think China can let those countries to have the oil fields, the oil in south china sea is far from promising anyway, then get them be china's ally and recognize the south china sea is a place only for China and US to control.

 

[adeptitus]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

Spratly spread from the middle to the south of south china sea. And you can only drill oil from shallow waters, which means, close to somebody's land. I think China can let those countries to have the oil fields, the oil in south china sea is far from promising anyway, then get them be china's ally and recognize the south china sea is a place only for China and US to control.

You could drill in deeper waters, like those off-shore platforms in Gulf of Mexico. However the cost is much higher.

For comparison, a near-shore, shallow water well can cost less than $5 million. But an off-shore well, even in shallow waters, could cost you as much as $50 million. And if it's in deep waters, the well cost you over $100 million. Other options, such as directional (slant) drilling into your neighbor's yard, also cost more.

Due to the enormous cost of these wells, the oil industry doesn't count oil deposits if it cannot be economically recovered at a profit. The world actually has a lot more oil deposits, but if it costs you $1 billion to recover $10 million worth of oil, you're not going to do it.

In an area north-east of Mexico city, there's a largely untapped oil field called Chicontepec field with estimated 33 billion barrels of oil deposits, out of which 17.6 billion is considered recoverable (economically viable). To do so would require an investment of $30-$40 billion dollars to drill 13,500 to 20,000 wells (on land). Much of the oil lays under layers of hard rock that's very costly to drill, and the extra-heavy oil require added cost to refining.

If it wasn't for the rising cost of oil, I doubt anyone would drill there and lose $$.

As for the South China Sea disputes, as long as the nations involved doesn't start shooting or blockading ships, I think the US can care less. If needed, the USN can easily steam into the region and put an end to any regional naval conflict. From self-interest point of view, the area is only important until middle east oil runs dry. After that the Arab/Persian countries will be out of money and the US has no incentive to intervene in that region anyway.

 

[lilzz]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

The spratly region consists of hundred of shallow reefs, sanddome, islands. In fact most of the region is in shallow warter. The ships generally go around the regions not through them.

 

[cooker]

Re: What military options available now in Spratly Islands.

IMO, an aircraft carrier is needed in order to secure china' s interest. China could tow varyag to park beside the Spratly Island and use it as a airport?