China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tamsen_ikard]

Which Chinese missiles are capable of striking warships in the Strait?

This is a forum where people discuss things. AI has no place here.

Malacca just 2000KM from Yunnan and Hainan, plenty of Chinese missiles can hit that range including DF-21D, DF-26, DF-100, DF-1000. DF-26 can even hit most of northern and central australia from Hainan using its 5k KM range.

J-20, J-16 and H-6 can easily do combar petrols from Yunnan and Hainan and assert Chinese dominance over the strait using both anti-ship missiles and achieve air superiority.

Once J-36 and J-50 comes online with their much bigger ranges, China will easily dominate the skies of Malacca.

So, you don't need the PLAN to achieve dominance over those places at all.

 

[Wrought]

Could the USN blockace the Malacca Straits in a way that only stops ships headed to China while allowing other ships to pass, perhaps with a convoy system?

This is a very lazy question for which you should do your own research on trade throughput, volumes, etc. The least you can do is quantify the parameters involved.

However, in the interests of getting you to think a little, take a look at a map of the countries located around said strait. What do you see? Land, of course. Overland routes to China from Thailand, and Malaysia, and Indonesia, and Vietnam and so forth. Road and rail links which continue to be built out and expanded as regional integration continues year after year. Even if you can magically identify and destroy every single ship heading to China, what exactly stops them from unloading at Hai Phong, the second-largest port in Vietnam? It's only 200km from there to the Chinese border. Is the Vietnamese government going to cut off all trade with China? Is the US going to occupy Vietnam and patrol the border?

And what trade are you trying to stop anyway? What is China importing? Well, mostly commodities. Grain, ore, oil, those sort of things. The kind of things that Vietnam also needs, that everyone also needs. Even if nobody does anything to stop you, how exactly do you track every shipment to ensure that this particular boatload of wheat is being consumed in Hanoi instead of Hangzhou? Or maybe the wheat truly is consumed in Hanoi, because Hanoi already sold all of its rice to Hangzhou and is simply backfilling its own needs. Is that off-limits too? If so, how do you track it? The paperwork alone is a nightmare.

 

[CMP]

This is a very lazy question for which you should do your own research on trade throughput, volumes, etc. The least you can do is quantify the parameters involved.

However, in the interests of getting you to think a little, take a look at a map of the countries located around said strait. What do you see? Land, of course. Overland routes to China from Thailand, and Malaysia, and Indonesia, and Vietnam and so forth. Road and rail links which continue to be built out and expanded as regional integration continues year after year. Even if you can magically identify and destroy every single ship heading to China, what exactly stops them from unloading at Hai Phong, the second-largest port in Vietnam? It's only 200km from there to the Chinese border. Is the Vietnamese government going to cut off all trade with China? Is the US going to occupy Vietnam and patrol the border?

And what trade are you trying to stop anyway? What is China importing? Well, mostly commodities. Grain, ore, oil, those sort of things. The kind of things that Vietnam also needs, that everyone also needs. Even if nobody does anything to stop you, how exactly do you track every shipment to ensure that this particular boatload of wheat is being consumed in Hanoi instead of Hangzhou? Or maybe the wheat truly is consumed in Hanoi, because Hanoi already sold all of its rice to Hangzhou and is simply backfilling its own needs. Is that off-limits too? If so, how do you track it? The paperwork alone is a nightmare.

His questions always carry with them a hint of megalomania on top of also being too lazy to do any research on his own. Pretty sure he's just another troll.

 

[henrik]

Malacca just 2000KM from Yunnan and Hainan, plenty of Chinese missiles can hit that range including DF-21D, DF-26, DF-100, DF-1000. DF-26 can even hit most of northern and central australia from Hainan using its 5k KM range.

J-20, J-16 and H-6 can easily do combar petrols from Yunnan and Hainan and assert Chinese dominance over the strait using both anti-ship missiles and achieve air superiority.

Once J-36 and J-50 comes online with their much bigger ranges, China will easily dominate the skies of Malacca.

So, you don't need the PLAN to achieve dominance over those places at all.

Do Chinese planes need to fly over some SE Asian countries before reaching Malacca Straits?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Do Chinese planes need to fly over some SE Asian countries before reaching Malacca Straits?

Mostly yes. The most direct route (i.e. using the least number of sovereign airspaces and utilizing the shortest possible distance) would be flying over Myanmar from Yunnan.

And if I'm not mistaken, even if PLAAF aircrafts choose to only fly above the sea (i.e. avoiding any overland flights), the narrow straits around Singapore and Indonesia's Batam Islands should still require interacting with the sovereign airspaces of Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia to a certain degree at least.

 

[GulfLander]

US congressional panel: Taiwan could fund EDCA upgrades in Philippines

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