China's SCS Strategy Thread

[00CuriousObserver]

Allegedly WL-10 east of Scarborough Shoal

 

[Inque]

We're within years of China's navy being able to take on the entire USN directly and coming out completely on top. A blockade would just be smashed.

How?

 

[Nevermore]

The rise of the Chinese Navy and the decline of the U.S. Navy continue, and perhaps one day the option of “blocking the Strait of Malacca” will vanish entirely from the U.S. military's playbook.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Blockades worked against Germany in both world wars. Convoys were especially useful then. Could the USN go and say, "all ships passing through the Malacca Straits except for the ones we escort in convoys will be considered in violation of our blockade and sunk"?

Such a blockade would only be attempted if China is already actively at war, most likely against Taiwan. They would need every resource they can spare, and the Straits are far away.

Anything within 5K radius of Chinese border is completely under Chinese control. This includes all of First island chain, malacca and so on. China's parade showed the missile arsenal that can reach these places and destroy any ship they want, so naval blockade is not possible.

US can attempt to impose blockade through air power but they will need to base this airpower somewhere. Whoever hosts US air power to fight is going to eat Chinese missiles as well. I don't see Malaysia,Indonesia or even India allowing US to operate from their bases. Moreover, China's long range fighters and Bombers will be able to get an airfield in Myanmar and fly from there to prevent any kind of air power based control on ships.

 

[lcloo]

Blockades worked against Germany in both world wars. Convoys were especially useful then. Could the USN go and say, "all ships passing through the Malacca Straits except for the ones we escort in convoys will be considered in violation of our blockade and sunk"?

Such a blockade would only be attempted if China is already actively at war, most likely against Taiwan. They would need every resource they can spare, and the Straits are far away.

Actually the Malacca straits is just next to the South China Sea, if you look carefully at the map. And if China move their forces to Cambodia and into the Gulf of Siam, they can easily intercept and attack any US blockade ships in the straits as well as in Eastern part of Indian ocean. Moreover, PLA's "Guam Express" has the range to cover the area.

 

[Tomboy]

We're within years of China's navy being able to take on the entire USN directly and coming out completely on top.

It's still going to take over a decade or more for this to happen, PLAN is still in the transition period from a weak brown water navy to blue water navy. Though I'm reasonably confident in this 5YP we are going to see the next generation DDG and FFG getting into the serial phase, from there is just numbers.

 

[kafkahibino]

It's still going to take over a decade or more for this to happen, PLAN is still in the transition period from a weak brown water navy to blue water navy. Though I'm reasonably confident in this 5YP we are going to see the next generation DDG and FFG getting into the serial phase, from there is just numbers.

SSN too

 

[CMP]

How?

Ask Grok.

 

[Inque]

Anything within 5K radius of Chinese border is completely under Chinese control. This includes all of First island chain, malacca and so on. China's parade showed the missile arsenal that can reach these places and destroy any ship they want, so naval blockade is not possible.

US can attempt to impose blockade through air power but they will need to base this airpower somewhere. Whoever hosts US air power to fight is going to eat Chinese missiles as well. I don't see Malaysia,Indonesia or even India allowing US to operate from their bases. Moreover, China's long range fighters and Bombers will be able to get an airfield in Myanmar and fly from there to prevent any kind of air power based control on ships.

Which Chinese missiles are capable of striking warships in the Strait?

Ask Grok.

This is a forum where people discuss things. AI has no place here.

 

[CMP]

It's still going to take over a decade or more for this to happen, PLAN is still in the transition period from a weak brown water navy to blue water navy. Though I'm reasonably confident in this 5YP we are going to see the next generation DDG and FFG getting into the serial phase, from there is just numbers.

About 10 years to go from the current balance of forces to outright supremacy sounds about right to me as well.

Which Chinese missiles are capable of striking warships in the Strait?

This is a forum where people discuss things. AI has no place here.

You have yet to convince me in the least that you are not AI. And definitely not a very advanced one either. Your one word response to my short novel about seals that deal. Want some effort out of someone? Start by putting in a roughly equivalent amount yourself. In fact, your one word response was lucky it even received a two word response from me. Next time you pull some stupid shit like that, you should expect an equal word count back.

Also, you have this strange habit of asking a lot of questions that can be easily answered via Google or by Grok. Go do your own homework you lazy bum.