China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
According to the director of SCSPI, there are more than 10 daily encounters between PLAAF and USAF over the East and South China Sea.
Also this channel is recommended, but it's in Chinese.
Also this channel is recommended, but it's in Chinese.
It's a spy plane.
Allegedly PH ship and plane carrying Filipino media near shoal [email protected]
that is possible but risky given the PLAN, possibly the PLAAF and how it’s difficult to selectively choose a blockade.
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
Not without collapsing global shipping.
The number of ships that pass through there are massive. Good luck checking all their paperwork without adding weeks to transit times, if not months. And thats ruling out fake papers and Chinese active countermeasures and retaliation.
With how dependent the world is on Chinese manufacturing output, that’s basically industrial, economic and social suicide.
A sea based blockade is two decades too late and only geographically possible in the SCS. Which was why Obama and Hillary were so desperate to stir up shit in the SCS to manufacture a pretext for America to militarise the region and lay the foundations for such a blockade.
China overmatched and killed that move with its SCS island bases.
Everything else has just been idiots refusing to accept that this is a dead-end no-hope strategy now and are just making ever more delusional fairytale ideas about how to salvage it. This plan is long fucked, move on already.
lcloo
Major
The USN ships enforcing the blockade would likely face the danger of being sunk by long range missiles fired from Yunan province in Southern China, as well as from ships and aircraft from South China Sea.
It is like if PLAN ships trying to blockade Panama cannal. Not going to be favourable to the ones doing the blockade.
Blockades worked against Germany in both world wars. Convoys were especially useful then. Could the USN go and say, "all ships passing through the Malacca Straits except for the ones we escort in convoys will be considered in violation of our blockade and sunk"?
Such a blockade would only be attempted if China is already actively at war, most likely against Taiwan. They would need every resource they can spare, and the Straits are far away.
We're within years of China's navy being able to take on the entire USN directly and coming out completely on top. A blockade would just be smashed. American proclamations of 2027 being a key inflection point are actually very indicative of what their own internal projections show about their own ability to resist Chinese military force. The theory is that this is when the US military will be at its relative weakest point vis a vis China, and that they'll massively recover military strength from early 2030s onward. My own theory is that this is nonsense and their decline will in fact accelerate starting from 2027, led in large part by further fiscal deterioration. In fact, we're already seeing the early signs of that this year. The input cost increases and rare earth magnet scarcity for their military industrial complex will have a net effect of throttling their military production, even if they manage to pull off large and consistent war budget increases. Instead, that extra funding (if they manage to do so) will just be wasted and corrupted away to an even greater extent than they do now. In short, even if they grow their budget bigly every year, it'll have massively diminishing returns in output. Their problem is not and has never been an inadequate budget. The real problem is inefficiency and corruption. And I'm just not seeing any real effort to address that. To fix it, they'd have to start by permanently closing the revolving door between senior military leadership and military corporations, ban military corporations from the right to lobby congress, undo the privatization in that sector that has occurred in the post-WW2 era, and reverse the big mergers that have happened in their military industrial complex in the post-WW2 era.
In other words, absolutely impossible and not even worth considering. Better to just get in on the financial action, which is what everyone is doing anyways.
In other words, absolutely impossible and not even worth considering. Better to just get in on the financial action, which is what everyone is doing anyways.
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