China's SCS Strategy Thread

[zyklon]

Prepare to get attacked by people who think China's weird foreign policy choices are some kind of a confucian wisdom. That Zyklon guy just wrote this was the cost of being a superpower. I guess superpower is when you decide to enforce territory by ramming ships and getting a DDG damaged while doing so. This stuff is exactly what the Phillipines wants because even they can continue doing this indefinitely. FWIW, China doesn't even have economic sanctions on the Phillippines.

Thanks for the shoutout!

If the Chinese are serious about the rise of Pax Sinica, hot blooded Chinese youth and naive Chinese nationalists can't have a meltdown every time something suboptimal occurs: while their emotionally charged responses are understandable, frustration and disappointment need to be "properly channeled" to be productive.

One of the first things most soldiers learn upon enlisting is the maxim known in English as Murphy's Law: what can go wrong will go wrong.

While the collision between PLAN Guilin (164) and CCG Nanyu (3104) is regrettable and embarrassing, it's in all fairness, nothing to be ashamed of or to be surprised by.

When militaries and paramilitaries conduct operations (and in some cases, training), the loss of lives (and hulls) is unfortunately to be expected: if you don't have the appetite for that, then the subject matter of this forum probably isn't really for you, especially if you ever wish to be more than a spectator.

If Beijing wants to treat the South China Sea as de facto — never mind de jure — territorial waters akin to the dominance and control Washington has exercised over

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as the Gulf of America, then the CMC is going to have to put the PLAN and CCG to work, and that inevitably carries risks.

The TTPs the PLAN and CCG have practiced and pursued in support of China's national security objectives in the South China Sea are obviously imperfect and in need of further refinement. However, at the end of the day, they're what the Celestial Empire got to work with for now should it wish to stand tall, and reach a height where it is eye to eye with, if not looking down upon Uncle Sam.

China's resurgence as a preeminent power among nation states has quite literally been paid for with the blood, sweat and tears of multiple generations of its people. There's been some smooth sailing in recent decades, but the essential inputs for civilizational greatness ain't going to change, even if the price paid in terms of lost lives and materials is more manageable than before.

 

[KFX]

Thanks for the shoutout!

If the Chinese are serious about the rise of Pax Sinica, hot blooded Chinese youth and naive Chinese nationalists can't have a meltdown every time something suboptimal occurs: while their emotionally charged responses are understandable, frustration and disappointment need to be "properly channeled" to be productive.

One of the first things most soldiers learn upon enlisting is the maxim known in English as Murphy's Law: what can go wrong will go wrong.

While the collision between PLAN Guilin (164) and CCG Nanyu (3104) is regrettable and embarrassing, it's in all fairness, nothing to be ashamed of or to be surprised by.

When militaries and paramilitaries conduct operations (and in some cases, training), the loss of lives (and hulls) is unfortunately to be expected: if you don't have the appetite for that, then the subject matter of this forum probably isn't really for you, especially if you ever wish to be more than a spectator.

If Beijing wants to treat the South China Sea as de facto — never mind de jure — territorial waters akin to the dominance and control Washington has exercised over

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

as the Gulf of America, then the CMC is going to have to put the PLAN and CCG to work, and that inevitably carries risks.

The TTPs the PLAN and CCG have practiced and pursued in support of China's national security objectives in the South China Sea are obviously imperfect and in need of further refinement. However, at the end of the day, they're what the Celestial Empire got to work with for now should it wish to stand tall, and reach a height where it is eye to eye with, if not looking down upon Uncle Sam.

China's resurgence as a preeminent power among nation states has quite literally been paid for with the blood, sweat and tears of multiple generations of its people. There's been some smooth sailing in recent decades, but the essential inputs for civilizational greatness ain't going to change, even if the price paid in terms of lost lives and materials is more manageable than before.

Nice essay, but the headline is still ‘PLAN ship hits CCG ship.’ Everything else is just wallpaper.

 

[MwRYum]

Any mishap on China's part will undoubtedly magnified by its enemies, that is to be expected.

Nevertheless, only through the use of 76mm deck gun then people would finally understand China does mean business.

 

[sndef888]

I've almost completely avoided talking about this because IMO it doesn't matter in the least

Like come on, it's a funny gaffe. Not of any serious consequence to the PLA or CCG. It doesn't reflect real wartime operations or competency at all (unlike when the USN collided with civilian tankers)

The ship will be buffed out and back in full working order in 6 days

It's only embarassing if you yourself give it attention. Though a part of me still hopes China uses this as an excuse to escalate against Philippines

 

[bsdnf]

Any mishap on China's part will undoubtedly magnified by its enemies, that is to be expected.

Nevertheless, only through the use of 76mm deck gun then people would finally understand China does mean business.

In fact, no, there is a procedure for escalating force within the framework of maritime law enforcement. Please don't let the idiotic hawkish habits of Weibo spread here, thank you.

 

[MortyandRick]

Right — and those were in open seas or training, not chasing unarmed fishing boats, blinding coast guard crews with lasers, or colliding with your own ships while trying to block someone. Context matters.

If they have those collisions during training and in those context, they'd fare event worse maneuvering with small ships, so yeah context matters, and in that context , USN would care even worse.

True — at least when a US ship collides, it’s usually with a massive tanker, not a friendly vessel in the same formation.

Just made my point. How do you collide with a slow moving tanker ?!?
At least in the chase, the ships are fast, maneuverable and small, in a tight space. But to hit a large slow moving tanker ? Lol yeah not spending to be proud of.

 

[sheen]

As mentioned by others, it doesn't change the balance of power here. Those ships will get repaired (call it job security for those in the shipyard I guess). Give it a few weeks and everyone will move on.

Pray for those that got injured or lost their lives, learn from it, and hope next time coastguards get some new toys to catch up to those Japanese made boats. (022 coast guard decal when?)

 

[Blitzo]

In the same world where a threat of taking away the home of a homeless person isn't considered as a real consequence. Every single mission undertake by that PCG crew is a "risk of collision" with ships bigger than they are, and if they were so risk adverse they would have stayed home. In other words, your "risk" wouldn't count as real consequence for the Filipinos if they treat it merely as occupational hazard.

If you are asking what efforts the PLAN could make to prevent the PCG from physically confronting them, there is no definitive method.
That is the whole purpose of these "I'm not touching you"/bumper boat style games, or so called grey zone is that neither side has the ability to deter the other, only to try and alter the other side's risk calculus.

If your claim of speed and mass advantages actually deterred the Filipinos from getting close (for fearing a collision), DDG164 wouldn't be in this situation. Yet, here we are.

You are missing the point.

It was not the responsibility of DDG164 to deter the PCG boats. It was the responsibility of the destroyer to prevent itself from finding itself in a situation where it would need to deter the PCG boats to begin with.
That is why operating naval ships in close frays like this is confusing, if not stupid -- because there is no situation where they are able to leverage lethal force in these type of grey zone confrontations.

The destroyer didn't need to actively engage the PCG; the destroyer merely needed to be in the vicinity. The PCG didn't need to entrap the destroyer; it only needed to exploit the fact that the destroyer is there. The only sure way for the destroyer to "extradite itself" completely would be to abandon post and such expectation is preposterous.

Not really. The destroyer could have remained well over the horizon beyond line of sight, with sufficient room to maintain an overwatch distance and to have enough space to out keep that distance if they wanted, or in a manner to remain still and dare the PCG boat to get into their face and risk a collision with a larger vessel.

At minimum, getting within physical contact range of a friendly CCG boat (where they were clearly manevuering in a manner in competition with the PCG boat) was obviously a poor decision.

The only way this could have made sense is if all PRC vessels in that instance were given the command to physically scare off the PCG boat, with other priorities considered secondary

 

[4Tran]

However, as the gap in national power between China and the U.S. rapidly narrows, the contest will grow ever more tense. In order to maintain its status as the world’s leading power and to prevent a shake in the dollar’s dominance—thereby averting shocks to the global financial system—the United States will continue to suppress China’s rise. Thus, if China were to escalate militarily in a way that led major geopolitical stakeholders to conclude that U.S. intervention was “necessary and imperative,” Washington would act, regardless of its initial inclination. Should China then be compelled to escalate in response, direct or indirect military confrontation between the two could spiral upward—until one side suffers internal destabilization, or the world slips into the outcome both most wish to avoid: utter silence.

This is the most important part. If current trends hold, China will win more and more handily. And as the status quo favors them so much, there's little reason for them to change their strategy. The American strategy hasn't been working, so the onus is on them to change things up. And so, small incidents like this (and this really is a very small incident) don't change anything strategically so there's nothing in it for China to escalate. Philippines is also walking on a razor's edge. While the overall calculus is for China to do nothing, there's always a chance for that stance to change, and while the US may benefit from this, the outcome for Pilippines can be much much worse.

 

[tankphobia]

If China wanted these games to end tomorrow they can simply sanction Phillipines economically. China is Philippines's largest trading partner and can easily cripple their economy. I don't know why China uses the kinetic option when they don't have to. There's already good example with the US using its economical heft to shake down even its allies, it's perfectly reasonabe to do it against belligerent states.