China's SCS Strategy Thread

GulfLander

Captain
Registered Member
China will have zero interest in occupying the Philippines. That’s their wet dream to get a new Colonial Daddy to build their country for them.

China has the means to easily demilitarise and deindustrialise the Philippines with cheap drone and bombs as two ends of the spectrum in terms of how much of an example Beijing might seek to make.

But China will have zero appetite for occupation, since that opens them to accusations of being an expansionist power, which Beijing is unusually sensitive to. Additionally, an occupation will be far more costly in terms of lives and treasure, and also have no real clear endgame other than US style cut-and -run pullouts that will only tarnish China’s image and military deterrence.

If the Philippines is stupid enough to push China into a kinetic response, it will be a short and sharp series of strikes designed to degrade the Military and industrial capabilities of the Philippines to a sufficient degree to set an example and make a point. That’s as far as Chinese military options will go.
Allegedly accdg to this video below, that Batan Island in Batanes, PH.. seem some preparations being made? What u think?
 

GhostEars

New Member
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Should be related to these items from previous years:

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For those who are interested, it will be established as a listening post to track Chinese submarine transiting from SCS to East China sea or vice versa. Batanes can't handle any ship bigger than 4,000 ton. The Island is to small, rocky and barely support the population of 18,000, a logistical nightmare if you ask me cause I'm being there twice. Water is a big problem as it had to be imported from the Philippine mainland and also it is frequently crisscross by typhoon. Heck the Chinese didn't need to attack the island let mother nature do her thing for them. ;)
 

duskseeker

Junior Member
Registered Member
For those who are interested, it will be established as a listening post to track Chinese submarine transiting from SCS to East China sea or vice versa. Batanes can't handle any ship bigger than 4,000 ton. The Island is to small, rocky and barely support the population of 18,000, a logistical nightmare if you ask me cause I'm being there twice. Water is a big problem as it had to be imported from the Philippine mainland and also it is frequently crisscross by typhoon. Heck the Chinese didn't need to attack the island let mother nature do her thing for them. ;)
You've been wrong multiple times about the Marcos regime since 2022 that the USA has no power over the Philippines and deployment of American forces. I recall you even said, he fired cops that were "Pro USA". I suggest you read this, not as an insult but re-assessment.
 

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Wrought

Junior Member
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US wants to sell F16 to Ph?

"US approves sale of 20 US F-16 fighter jets to Philippines as Washington tightens key Asian alliance" cnn​

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The cost of this sale ($5.5 billion as noted in the article) is more than the entire
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of the Philippines.

Funding comes from the 2025 national budget that President Ferdinand Marcos signed into law Dec. 30, 2024. It included 271.9 billion pesos (US$4.65 billion) for the Department of National Defense (DND), a 12.3% hike compared to a year earlier.

Presumably they will need to pay it off over many years.
 

lcloo

Captain
Most likely US will offer to sell those retired F-16A/B from the desert Boneyard, refurbish them to flyable condition. As for the payment, I won't be surprise if Trump demand for rights to some island or airbase similar to to Guantanamo naval base in Cuba, or sale of Ireland, or the mining rights to minerals in Ukraine.

I believe the offer from US is a unilateral action to test water to see if Marcos is desperate to have solid US backing.

Trump like to make unilateral offers and threats as bargaining chip, leading to negotiations often in US favour.
 

GulfLander

Captain
Registered Member
"A cross-border bridge connecting Basa in Hekou County, southwest China's Yunnan Province and Bat Xat district in Lao Cai Province of Vietnam, began construction on Monday."
....

"The Tianpeng (China) port and Sam Pun (Vietnam) port began handling freight transportation on Monday, marking a leap of the ports' function in both personnel exchange and freight transportation."
....

"Two advanced Chinese dredgers are now operational at Malaysia's Westports, playing a key role in the port's capacity upgrade."
....

Cn FM comments on the f16 thing between US and Ph.
"We’ve made clear more than once our position on military and security cooperation between the Philippines and the U.S. Whatever defense or security cooperation between the Philippines and other countries should not target any third party or harm their interest, still less threaten regional peace and security or escalate tensions in the region. Who exactly is fueling the flames? Who exactly is instigating military confrontation? Who exactly is turning Asia into a “powder keg?” Regional countries are not blind. "
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
The cost of this sale ($5.5 billion as noted in the article) is more than the entire
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of the Philippines.



Presumably they will need to pay it off over many years.
To add on your post

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3 hours ago — The Philippines plans to seek a long-term loan from Washington to acquire 20 "brand-new" F-16 fighter jets and other defense equipment from the ...

Now the question is for that amount of money, how many kickbacks will the Marcos and Romualdez family get 40%? and with long term loan, it's an ideal way to launder those illegal money making it look legit. This trick had been perfected by the Elder Marcos, during the 70's, when we want to purchase F5E TIGER II fighter plane and in the midway after securing a loan we settled for a refurbished second hand surplus F8 via the US FMA(Foreign Military Assistance).


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·
In the discussion regarding the Northrop F-5A/B Freedom Fighter fleet of the Philippine Air Force, there was an interesting discussion that is better discussed separately.
So why did the Philippine government select the refurbished Vought F-8H Crusader over brand new Northrop F-5E Tiger II fighters?
Based on declassified documents from the US government, the US government sent a Letter of Offer/Acceptance (LOA) to the Philippine government in 1977 for 11 brand new Northrop F-5E Tiger II fighter aircraft.
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Based also on other declassified documents, the 11 fighters was just the first batch of a potential order, as PAf has a total requirement for 36 F-5E/F fighters based on a request made by then Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile covering the 5-year AFP Modernization from 1977 to 1981.
But ultimately, the Philippine government decided to purchase 25 refurbished F-8H Crusader fight aircraft plus 10 spare hulks. This was despite a warning from the US government on the supportability of the aircraft due to it already being retired by the US Navy.
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There is a possibility that the PAF was after numerical advantage of having 25 fighters instead of just 11. Another reason could be because the F-8H was said to be a better interceptor than the F-5E.
But many of those who lived during the Marcos years, especially those who were in the Marcos administration like my father, also point out to Saudi Arabian businessman and arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi, who helped Vought in selling aircraft, and was close to the Marcoses back in the 1970s for helping the Marcoses hide their loot into the global real estate market. Those who knew of Khashoggi's involvement may know that Marcos had their share on the sale of the F-8s to the PAF, which were said to have been sold to the Philippines at an overpriced amount.
Whatever the reasons are, was it a wise choice for the PAF to get the F-8H rather than the F-5E/F? Would the PAF be still flying F-5E/F Tiger II fighters if it was selected back then?
Photo credits to original sources.
 
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