China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
It's US' orders. PH is irrelevant.
You are either prepared for a showdown with the US or not. The rest is just white noise
Nah man, US is not ready for a showdown over China for dragging a boat. That is delusional.
Pretty sure this is not a grounding. Cabra and Teresa Magbanua are both active service vessels and new ones at that. They were delivered in 2018 and 2022, respectively. It makes no sense at all to ground a ship which is still quite useful as, well, a ship.
You ground old hulks that would otherwise be retired, not brand new ships. Remember that Sierra Madre is literally from WWII.
Do you know who is behind SCS_PI? I think we are not far from a ship dragging event.
Nope, and if he believes that grounding new ships is in any way plausible then I don't particularly care to know. I think this is a whole lot of nothing, as usual. The number of false positives is way higher than the number of actual developments in this space.
SCS_PI is not some random OSINT bro, it is China's SCS thinktank mouthpiece. China doesn't care whether you think some random ship is grounded or not, this news is announced now so in the soon future the PLAN and CCG have an excuse to remove the ship.
I am extremely skeptical that PLAN or CCG is announcing their intentions in advance on twitter. Creating space, floating possibilities, sure, but there is a very big difference between possible action and real action. This is one of many possibilities which may or may not happen, and what actually does happen is only obvious in hindsight. Your mistake is in thinking too deterministically. Nothing is guaranteed to happen here.
And that's not even getting to my original point about how stupid it would be to ground a new ship. Doesn't matter what authority it's coming from, it's just dumb. Dumb in such an obvious way, with such an obvious alternative, that it's not really worth entertaining.