China's SCS Strategy Thread

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Personally, I have imagined scenarios in which China takes the Second Thomas Shoal - during military exercises - in response to the next USA provocation in Taiwan.

However, I think the shoal isn't actually that valuable in military terms. It's more symbolic. Correct me if wrong.

Instead, the purpose of the water cannons is to put low-intensity pressure on the Philippines. This is as a response to BBM creating a bunch of USA military bases for the USA to bomb and blockade China.
Bro those missile launch from those bases will be intercepted and then what? time out need to replenished from the US....lol In the bigger scheme of things those bases are irrelevant, can easily be counter and for me a liability for the Americans. Militarily they're overstretch, the US want its allies and vassal to take the initial blow while they mobilized just like in WW2 their ideal war. BUT they don't have the capacity and in the extent that there is a hot war in the pacific it will be fought at the second island chain not in the Chinese backyard as the American envision, That's the theater the Chinese will fight.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
China needs to think and act more strategically on this. What does China want to do and accomplish with all these show and actions? Philippines obviously knows how China will react in these encounters and that's why they have reporters with them. China's watercannoning of these ships will not stop them from doing it again. Therefore China needs to react and do something permanent to stop these temporary charades. As I have said before, China needs to warn Macros and his military leaders that any further instigation from Philippine's side will force China to react and build more islands to protect its rights and interests. And when Philippine refuses to heed the warning and continues with these acts then China should make the Second Thomas Shoal a big island, with the grounded BRP Sierra Madre in its lagoon.

Because China's PR suck donkeys and this issue are being used by others to attack and damage China's global image and create problem between China and other ASEAN countries.

China needs to resolve this permanently, even if it needs to apply some economy, military and political forces.

However painful it might be, this wound will only heal when it is cauterized.
To butress what @ansy1968 explained very well on this issue on why most ASEAN members will do diddly squat for the PH and against China here's another claimant VIETNAM in the SCS patrolling with CHINA together on their maritime demarcation line. It shows that the issue can be worked on respectfully and with great care but it's the PHILIPPINES who's choosing to be the next Ukraine.

 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
To butress what @ansy1968 explained very well on this issue on why most ASEAN members will do diddly squat for the PH and against China here's another claimant VIETNAM in the SCS patrolling with CHINA together on their maritime demarcation line. It shows that the issue can be worked on respectfully and with great care but it's the PHILIPPINES who's choosing to be the next Ukraine.

This is actually a pretty big deal and causing butthurt in western social media. There's a much better picture from this event too:
eubvqmacqoxc1.jpeg
Just today someone at work asked me what's the situation between China and Vietnam and I sent him that photo.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is actually a pretty big deal and causing butthurt in western social media. There's a much better picture from this event too:
View attachment 129002
Just today someone at work asked me what's the situation between China and Vietnam and I sent him that photo.
There will be a COC agreement with Vietnam and a Joint Oil exploration soon. Again Vietnam had stole a march on us again, China had been dangling the carrot under the Duterte administration and is very close on an agreement until Covid hit. There is a consensus that Marcos will seal the deal during his official visit to China BUT the American offer him a deal he can't refuse and the rest is history to the detriment of the Filipinos.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
@plawolf Sir here it is we have to shell out PHP3 million for repairs.

MANILA – Damage to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel that was hit by China’s water cannon could reach an estimated P2 to P3 million, with the Philippine government expected to shoulder the repairs, a PCG official said on Thursday.

Speaking to the media during BRP Bagacay’s arrival at Cunanan Wharf, Commodore Arnaldo Lim, the acting commander of PCG Manila at Central Luzon Districts, said the LED panel took a direct hit during the incident and was completely damaged.
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The canopy and the railings on the ship’s bridge were also destroyed. Some navigational equipment, like a satellite compass, have also been damaged.
“Hindi 'yan nagagalaw. Sa sobrang tigas ng bakal na ito kasi ginagawa natin ito – kapag… battle, kapag umaakyat ang mga US Armed Forces, especially US Coast Guard, hindi 'yan nagagalaw,” Lim said.
(The railings cannot be moved and these are very sturdy. These are also used for practice combats by the US Armed Forces and the US Coast Guard so it was constructed to be sturdy.)
“Ngayon sa sobrang lakas ng tubig, nabuwal at nasira ang LED screen display natin. Ito ang nagwe-welcome at nagbibigay ng babala ‘hindi puwede mangisda dito,’ ito yung LED screen na puwede mag-broadcast 'yung mga gusto nating sabihin,” he added.
(Because of the impact, the LED screen display was destroyed. This shows the messages we want to broadcast such as ‘you cannot fish in this area.’)
Repairs will start as soon as possible by the Coast Guard Commander Fleet, he said.
Asked if China will shoulder the cost for the repairs, the PCG official said, “I don’t think ‘yung kabilang kapitbahay natin ang magbabayad nito. The government will.”
(I don’t think our neighbor will pay for this.)


They will cannibalized some spare parts BUT from where? Will the Philippines continue this action and afford this kind of losses? And will they also arm water cannon to counter the CCG? From the reports BRP BAGACAY is sandwich by two CCG firing their water cannon simultaneously and the Chinese didn't use maximum force as seen from the video, there is some restrain and hopefully the Philippines will learn and act rationally from here on.



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... China's water cannon could reach an estimated P2 to P3 million, with the Philippine government expected to shoulder the repairs, a PCG official said on Thursday ...

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4 hours ago — PH to shoulder repairs for PCG ship damaged by China water cannon; damage at P2-3 million · Philippines summons China envoy over water cannon ...
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
@plawolf Sir here it is we have to shell out PHP3 million for repairs.

MANILA – Damage to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel that was hit by China’s water cannon could reach an estimated P2 to P3 million, with the Philippine government expected to shoulder the repairs, a PCG official said on Thursday.

Speaking to the media during BRP Bagacay’s arrival at Cunanan Wharf, Commodore Arnaldo Lim, the acting commander of PCG Manila at Central Luzon Districts, said the LED panel took a direct hit during the incident and was completely damaged.
ADVERTISEMENT
The canopy and the railings on the ship’s bridge were also destroyed. Some navigational equipment, like a satellite compass, have also been damaged.
“Hindi 'yan nagagalaw. Sa sobrang tigas ng bakal na ito kasi ginagawa natin ito – kapag… battle, kapag umaakyat ang mga US Armed Forces, especially US Coast Guard, hindi 'yan nagagalaw,” Lim said.
(The railings cannot be moved and these are very sturdy. These are also used for practice combats by the US Armed Forces and the US Coast Guard so it was constructed to be sturdy.)
“Ngayon sa sobrang lakas ng tubig, nabuwal at nasira ang LED screen display natin. Ito ang nagwe-welcome at nagbibigay ng babala ‘hindi puwede mangisda dito,’ ito yung LED screen na puwede mag-broadcast 'yung mga gusto nating sabihin,” he added.
(Because of the impact, the LED screen display was destroyed. This shows the messages we want to broadcast such as ‘you cannot fish in this area.’)
Repairs will start as soon as possible by the Coast Guard Commander Fleet, he said.
Asked if China will shoulder the cost for the repairs, the PCG official said, “I don’t think ‘yung kabilang kapitbahay natin ang magbabayad nito. The government will.”
(I don’t think our neighbor will pay for this.)


They will cannibalized some spare parts BUT from where? Will the Philippines continue this action and afford this kind of losses? And will they also arm water cannon to counter the CCG? From the reports BRP BAGACAY is sandwich by two CCG firing their water cannon simultaneously and the Chinese didn't use maximum force as seen from the video, there is some restrain and hopefully the Philippines will learn and act rationally from here on.



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... China's water cannon could reach an estimated P2 to P3 million, with the Philippine government expected to shoulder the repairs, a PCG official said on Thursday ...

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4 hours ago — PH to shoulder repairs for PCG ship damaged by China water cannon; damage at P2-3 million · Philippines summons China envoy over water cannon ...
@ansy1968 you have been living in the Philippines for most, if not all of your life, including your parents. The average Filipino are very nationalistic and pro-American which is contradictory in itself. While China has certainly risen in all areas of tech and military the average Filipinos especially those of baby boomer generation and even generation x sees China as some sort of inferior quality country, political system and therefore people. This latest incident have not at all dampen their enthusiasm of wishing and wanting to escalate against the CCG/PLAN. As a matter of anecdotal proof one has to simply read all the commentaries from the PHILIPPINE media and social media sites like X (Twitter), Facebook, TIKTOK, and YouTube.

On a more personal anecdote, my colleague who's Filipino but a sane and rational one keeps having to debate his father who's residing in the Philippines by informing his father that China has escalatory dominance, military superiority that dwarfs over the PH. That if it wasn't for the U.S. meddling and prodding the PH government wouldn't be acting this aggressive since the disparity of power is just very lopsided. His father on the other hand would have none of these reasonings. He asserted that China is very arrogant and must be taught a lesson since it's trying to claim a piece of the PH (natural resources). This person was a Duterte supporter but has been persuaded to go anti-China since the flare ups started to occur with more frequency.

The misinformation, information campaign are not directed against China exclusively, but more directly to the emotional beings and psychology of the average Filipinos. It's not directed to people like you who's not simply of Chinese stock but of higher educational background, well-read, and well-travelled. The number of people in your socio-economic strata in the PH is not large enough to dispel and dissuade the lare masses in the PH that still cling to old stereotypes about CHINA. That's why in my opinion the situation in the PH may have to get worse in order for it to get better. Meaning, in my view, the country must be taught a lesson that your country's power is not at all in the same hairband and that the illusion of American might can't and will not solve this unfortunate issue without the PH being dunked on metaphorically and figuratively.
 
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