China's SCS Strategy Thread

bebops

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This is what supercomputers are used for-- it will display all possible war scenario and outcomes.. I would run this every single day.. Everyday is more accurate than every few months.

Space satellites is mainly to show what weapons are deployed on an enemies base. then you input the data onto a supercomputer, the supercomputer will give you all different outcomes and war scenarios. it will also let China knows if there's any deficiency and what weapons would be needed to address the problem.

The supercomputer can also tell you how to deploy your forces and how to defeat your enemy.
 

PhSt

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Not sure how legit this guy is, but he is claiming June 15th is some sort of deadline to sign SCS code of conduct. Clearly Philippine is dragging their feet on signing this, he claims Vietnam already signed it. He thinks China is using the threat of forceful removal of Philippine garbage to pressure Philippine to sign it quickly, which I think is a valid point. He also points out 83 戚继光舰 (Qi Jiguang) will dock in Manila on June 14th, this ship serves as a training and diplomatic purpose.

After some digging, it seems there were already several demands from China in the past to have the Philippines remove the ship from the area.

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It would be an opportune moment for the PLAN to tow this ship on June 15 while the US is currently preoccupied in the Ukraine. The worst that could happen would be to hear a flurry of condemnations and declaration of "support" for the current Philippine regime and perhaps a couple of visits by US officials to the PH to make a show of solidarity with the Philippines.

With the BRP Sierra Madre taken care of, the PLAN can proceed with consolidating its control of the area and construct another island to solidify China's presence.
 

coolgod

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The map for both is dated June 12.
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A weibo poster suggest USS Nimitz most likely already entered the South China Sea. I think China's new strategy of escalation and playing Chicken with US is very suitable in the SCS. Otherwise Phillippine and Vietnam start having second thoughts about China's determination.
 
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tphuang

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A weibo poster suggest USS Nimitz most likely already entered the South China Sea. I think China's new strategy of escalation and playing Chicken with US is very suitable in the SCS. Otherwise Phillippine and Vietnam start having second thoughts about China's determination.

Unfortunately, Philippines caused this with their move to invite US military to those 4 bases. Now if China backs off in this scenario, it will look weak and ASEAN countries will be encouraged to go against China's interests.

I don't know what China will ultimately do but they need to find a good place between punishing Philippines and not crossing line of breaking international laws or look too unreasonable to other ASEAN countries. So, having diplomats going around ASEAN countries all agreeing to code of conducts will be pretty good move if they actually got it done.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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It would be an opportune moment for the PLAN to tow this ship on June 15 while the US is currently preoccupied in the Ukraine. The worst that could happen would be to hear a flurry of condemnations and declaration of "support" for the current Philippine regime and perhaps a couple of visits by US officials to the PH to make a show of solidarity with the Philippines.
The PLA better be on high alert right now. Those 2 CSGs and 1 ESG grouped in the vicinity of one another in the Philippine Sea and SCS regions could be very well up to something.

Any idea on the current activity status of the PLA? Especially for the STC and ETC?
 

tphuang

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The PLA better be on high alert right now. Those 2 CSGs and 1 ESG grouped in the vicinity of one another in the Philippine Sea and SCS regions could be very well up to something.

Any idea on the current activity status of the PLA? Especially for the STC and ETC?
sure, but LHD really aren't that useful. They have <10% of the ammo that a carrier would hold. Anytime you have US naval group nearby, PLAN probably has enough anti-ship missiles lined up to take them out in case things get ugly
 

antiterror13

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sure, but LHD really aren't that useful. They have <10% of the ammo that a carrier would hold. Anytime you have US naval group nearby, PLAN probably has enough anti-ship missiles lined up to take them out in case things get ugly

The biggest worry is not CBG but the subs and nuke. CBG is just a show force and only effective against 2nd or 3rd rated countries, it won't work against near peer country like China
 
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