China's SCS Strategy Thread

[james smith esq]

How likely is it that China would take Pratas Island (Tung-sha Tao) as an initial move against Taiwanese claims of sovereignty?

There isn’t much (anything) Taiwan (or any other country) could do about it, and Pratas would be an excellent airbase/AShM base to control access to the SCS from the east.

 

[tphuang]

They lost an island including its EEZ and territorial waters only for Vietnam to be one of the most anti-China countries a generation later. My point is that there are no permanent friendships however, territory is mostly permanent so you should never give up territory.

I asked you how losing that 1 small island mattered and you can't give me an explanation

Not really on your last point as far as location. They share a border with India and Japan blocks more of China's access to the open Pacific than the Philippines or Indonesia does.

As far as importance, Japan and India are much more important than the Philippines and Indonesia.

China can contain India through Pakistan. India also cannot do damage to China in a westpac conflict that USN itself would not be able to do.

As for Japan, I've explained thoughts on Japan here Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

It is very important for China to keep Japan on the sidelines as much as possible. The available forces between US and Japan in the region at any given time could be 50% more than US by itself. As such, China needs to figure out which early on if Japan will fully help US. The ways to keep Japan out of the conflict is through carrot and sticks. Sticks is by enforcing blockade of oil/mineral imports into Japan by blocking any good headed to Japan through SCS + blocking minerals headed to Japan from East of Philippines. Note how Philippines neutrality is important here? Carrot is through diplomacy and assuring Japan of no change in any territorial claims. Although, I think in this case, sticks I more important. If it's deemed that Japan will join any American effort, then they must launch massive attacks against all Japanese military bases from Senkaku Islands all the way through Ryuku island chain + ASBMs/hypersonic AShM against all major Japanese surface combatants, especially the LHDs that will carry F-35Bs. In short, China needs to crush Japan before USN CSG can join in significant numbers. The difficulty of having to overcome both US & Japan is significantly higher than just US.

Different countries have to be dealt differently. Japan sees the rise of China as an existential threat. There is no soft pedaling that can keep them out of an anti-China alliance. Philippines on the other hand could become a very good ally through negotiation, cooperation and trade. And it is in a great geographical location to allow China to control Japan.

Today, there is no possibility of a direct U.S. attack even in the backyard of China(SCS, Taiwan, etc.). There are certainly a high risk of a proxy war, especially further away from China like in Africa. The Chinese are not yet strong enough to have a military proxy war with the U.S. away from its own backyard. That is why their dealing with countries away from its own backyard has always been a bit transactional. Even for a country like Burma, so close to China, they have chosen coercion rather than direct military intervention. A few selected countries like Tanzania are drawing closer to Chinese orbits. The Chinese approach has been to strengthen the fighting capability of the government that it is dealing with, making it difficult to topple the government, at least without an invasion from the U.S. itself. If push comes to shove, and the U.S. decided to invade a country far away from China that is friendly to China, the Chinese will help all the way except sending its own troops as PLA. The Chinese can make it very costly for the U.S. to make such a move. Even a country like Venezuela, so close to the U.S., we are not able to topple as to date. With Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and now Ukraine fresh on our minds, and our economy wobbly, I think invading another country is a low probability event for the next few years. Even if the U.S. were to make such a move, it would be a short term loss to China, but would not alter the trajectory of the rise of China. In the longer term, it would be a disaster for the U.S. I don't share the view that the next ten years puts China in high danger. The Chinese have the flexibility to wait until they have already risen before engaging in a direct military confrontation with the U.S. Even for Taiwan, they can simply find an excuse to ignore them if Taiwan were to declare independence. Wait until the time is right for them to make a move.

What the heck are you talking about? The US foreign policy establishment has been beating the anti-China/contain China for 5 years now. China is viewed as public enemy #1 for the US military. Fear inside China of a unilateral US invasion was so high in 2020 that Gen Milley had to call his counterpart in PLA to assure that US will not attack China secretively. Even then, China was no assured.

Why do you think there is a nuclear buildup right now in China? It is deemed by some (not sure how many) in the US foreign policy establishment that even a peaceful rise of China to dominate Asia is intolerable and unacceptable. China has accelerated purchase of 052D/054A recently because it's getting itself ready for a possible conflict in the middle 2020s in the event that America decides that it can no longer tolerate China growing into a hegemon in East Asia. Keep in mind that an American attack could be 1 of 2 things:
1) outright declaration of war (unlikely, since it will not be appealing to the American public)
2) publicly declare that they will come to Taiwan's defense and actively encourage Taiwan to declare independence (this is the danger point)
That's why China is so explicitly clear in public about the result of 2). It is telling Taiwan to not play the games of certain China Hawks in America and get destroyed in the process.

 

[tphuang]

How likely is it that China would take Pratas Island (Tung-sha Tao) as an initial move against Taiwanese claims of sovereignty?

There isn’t much (anything) Taiwan (or any other country) could do about it, and Pratas would be an excellent airbase/AShM base to control access to the SCS from the east.

As soon as China takes any of the small island, you can bet the sanctions will start and the anti-China sentiment will go through the roof. Currently, China can continue to expand/fortify its existing controlled islands in SCS. It can continue to build more sensors and the US military can't do anything other than complain, because no regular Joe cares. That changes the moment you actually fight someone and take land from them, because people will have flashback to Crimea.

The only island that makes sense for China to take before an actual invasion of Taiwan is Penghu. I still think it's a terrible idea. You only want to pay the price of invasion once. You will also encourage Taiwan to declare independence. That is not something you want, since China is not ready yet for a war.

 

[Bob Smith]

I asked you how losing that 1 small island mattered and you can't give me an explanation

I'm glad the rest of the world agrees with me then seeing as how giving up any land for peace is so unimaginably unpopular. The Ukrainians and Palestinians are getting grind down to paste and they still declare that every square inch of territory is non negotiable.

 

[james smith esq]

That is not something you want, since China is not ready yet for a war.

Well, as China won’t be ready for war for 20 years, at least, I guess we needn’t speculate as to Chinese military strategies ’til ‘bout 2037, huh?

 

[tphuang]

Well, as China won’t be ready for war for 20 years, at least, I guess we needn’t speculate as to Chinese military strategies ’til ‘bout 2037, huh?

As I said, very difficult 10 years ahead. When we get to the point where they have a capable 095 and H20 in service + attained MAD (maybe by 2030), things will be a lot easier.

The Russia/Ukraine war could not have come at a better time for China. Western countries weary/exhausted from fallout of this conflict will not want another one for a few years. I don't advise Xi, but if I did, I would tell him to keep things on the low for a few years and do everything silently.

I'm glad the rest of the world agrees with me then seeing as how giving up any land for peace is so unimaginably unpopular. The Ukrainians and Palestinians are getting grind down to paste and they still declare that every square inch of territory is non negotiable.

Yet China give up certain claims in settling its borders with Russia and now Russia sees China as its ally. This is despite all the Westerners telling Russia that China will come and take Russia's Far East. Could you imagine a war scenario where China has to fight America/Japan while also dealing with a hostile Russia?

 

[Aniah]

Yet China give up certain claims in settling its borders with Russia and now Russia sees China as its ally. This is despite all the Westerners telling Russia that China will come and take Russia's Far East. Could you imagine a war scenario where China has to fight America/Japan while also dealing with a hostile Russia?

And when did that happen? Times have changed. It's 2022 now and China doesn't need to secede any of its lands. Not now, not ever.

 

[james smith esq]

As I said, very difficult 10 years ahead. When we get to the point where they have a capable 095 and H20 in service + attained MAD (maybe by 2030), things will be a lot easier.

I know this is the topic of a different thread, but MAD will require 275 ICBMs, at least, and 64 SLBMs, at least, with 96, preferably!

You expect that by 2030?

sorry for the ever-changing estimates!

 

[reservior dogs]

2) publicly declare that they will come to Taiwan's defense and actively encourage Taiwan to declare independence (this is the danger point)

Given the total power of the PLA, I just don't see how the U.S. will be able to defend Taiwan if the Chinese do decide to invade. The carriers simply cannot reach anywhere close to Taiwan with its planes. Planes or missiles launched from bases will result in that based being bombarded. Even the subs, without the protection of the surface fleet, will be in grave danger unless it just fires missiles from a long standoff distance. China controls the timing of the invasion, if the timing is not right, China can simply wait days or months to invade.

Don't forget that China can always find some pretext to ignore the declaration of independence. As long as the Chinese population understand that this is done strategically to wait for a better time to invade, the CPC will not be in danger of losing power. They also can blockade the island which will also have a devastating impact on Taiwan.

Now the U.S can use this pretext to apply sanctions or pick a fight elsewhere in the world where it is militarily more advantageous to the Chinese military, but if we wanted to do that, we really don't need to use Taiwan as a pretext, we just go and do it. We see that Xinjian becoming an important part of the Belts and Roads link and fabricated the whole Xinjian slave camp and Xinjian genocide out of thin air and imposed sanctions on Xinjian products. Notice there is no cost for fabricating these, just some reporting by the mainstream media who knows to toe the line. We don't need to provoke a war that we are destined to lose, which is a huge cost to the U.S., then use it as pretext for something else.

Regarding the containment of China, it did not start five years ago. Bush Jr. was looking at this and was sidetracked by the War On Terror. Obama had his pivot to Asia. I guess it got more heated over the last five years, but at his anti-China moments, Trump will not push for military actions. There are limits to the power of a nation, even one as militarily strong as the U.S.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

I know this is the topic of a different thread, but MAD will require 275 ICBMs, at least, and 64 SLBMs, at least, with 96, preferably!

You expect that by 2030?

sorry for the ever-changing estimates!

Not a nuclear armament expert and this may be OT here.

But if I remember correctly, China conducted 40 individual rocket launches (satellites and space crafts) in 2021 and probably will exceed that by 2022. So is there any reason why China cannot produce 40 ICBMs a year without straining her capacity ?

The most conservative Western estimate is that China possesses 300+ warheads now. Assuming China can add 40 warheads a year, I cannot see how China cannot have at least 275 ICBMs with MIRV warheads by 2030.

SLBM may be more of a challenge as it involves building submarines too.

But with a combination of H-6 launched, silo based, mobile launchers, and a limited numbers of SLBM missiles, I do not see how China cannot achieve credible MAD deterrence by 2030. And I am not even talking about HGV equipped ICBMs.