China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Aside from Ream news this week, I think something the Sri Lankan PM said is really interesting.

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I don't want to judge whether or not China is less committed to Pakistan and Sri Lanka, but it seems to me that ASEAN countries around SCS are going to be more strategically important to China at this point. As China becomes less dependent on Middle East oil imports in the future due to higher EV ownership and Russia oil imports, it's not as important to ensure that they can keep the Middle East route going. China's trades with ASEAN region is more important than ever. It's only going to grow in the future.

Honestly, I'm not sure what to think of this.

What about Bangladesh in this equation? China-Bangladesh relations has been pretty cordial as far as I know. Bangladesh, just like Pakistan, could become a viable Chinese ally in the Indian Ocean theater, although Bangladesh isn't really on animousity terms with a certain South Asian country, unlike Pakistan.

Certainly China is boosting her investment and buildup of green energy and nuclear energy sources, but fossil fuels would still be the main source of energy for China for at least the next decade.

Although it is true that China can reduce reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East, the scale of which China is currently dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas meant that the key transition from dependence on Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to Russia might not happen in a whip.

Plus, how fast can China do, in terms of building oil and gas pipelines? Seeing how the geopolitical situation in the Arctic and Western Pacific is becoming increasingly tense, oil and gas-carrying tankers would have a very hard time travelling between Russian and Chinese oil and gas terminals, especially in times of war as passing through the Bering Strait, Sea of Japan, Strait of Tsushima and the East China Sea risks direct interdiction by the warships of the US-led Lackeys Inc.

Hence I think China would have to secure her extra lifeline over land though pipelines, because attacking over Chinese and Russian territorties by the US-led Lackeys Inc. could very well mean nuclear exchange with China and Russia, something I think even most of the hawks in Washington D.C. would understand.

Another factor to consider is China's Belt and Road Initiative across Africa and West Asia - the trade routes between these regions and China needs to be protected as well, alongside if China wants to maintain her influence in these regions. I don't need to stress enough that those trade routes passes through the Indian Ocean, Andaman Sea and the Malacca Strait, which brings about my point on the vulnerabilities of the shippings being interdicted by warships of those US-led Lackeys. The direct participation of a certain South Asian country would certainly makes things worse.

Don't forget that some hawks in Washington D.C are advocating the deployment of private military security company (PMSC) fighters to harrass shipping vessels between China and Africa plus West Asia - Something like pirates, but more modern and better equiped than those AK-47 armed wooden speedboats.

Therefore, China would require a solid presence of her own warships in the Indian Ocean as well. Bangladesh and/or Pakistan are good options for that, alongside Djbouti.

 

[tphuang]

Honestly, I'm not sure what to think of this.

What about Bangladesh in this equation? China-Bangladesh relations has been pretty cordial as far as I know. Bangladesh, just like Pakistan, could become a viable Chinese ally in the Indian Ocean theater, although Bangladesh isn't really on animousity terms with a certain South Asian country, unlike Pakistan.

China has different designs with Bangladesh than Pakistan. Although, they are both built over many years of relationship. I saw an article where china has to tell Bangladesh to not get close to the quad. Which tells me china is still battling for influence there against India. I think the next step with Bangladesh is to sell them j10s and maybe some yuan submarines. That would be quite logical. In terms of location, Pakistan is better located for a naval base than Bangladesh or Sri Lanka since it would be under paf protection and is next to Persian gulf.

Certainly China is boosting her investment and buildup of green energy and nuclear energy sources, but fossil fuels would still be the main source of energy for China for at least the next decade.

Although it is true that China can reduce reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East, the scale of which China is currently dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas meant that the key transition from dependence on Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to Russia might not happen in a whip.

Plus, how fast can China do, in terms of building oil and gas pipelines? Seeing how the geopolitical situation in the Arctic and Western Pacific is becoming increasingly tense, oil and gas-carrying tankers would have a very hard time travelling between Russian and Chinese oil and gas terminals, especially in times of war as passing through the Bering Strait, Sea of Japan, Strait of Tsushima and the East China Sea risks direct interdiction by the warships of the US-led Lackeys Inc.

Hence I think China would have to secure her extra lifeline over land though pipelines, because attacking over Chinese and Russian territorties by the US-led Lackeys Inc. could very well mean nuclear exchange with China and Russia, something I think even most of the hawks in Washington D.C. would understand.

Another factor to consider is China's Belt and Road Initiative across Africa and West Asia - the trade routes between these regions and China needs to be protected as well, alongside if China wants to maintain her influence in these regions. I don't need to stress enough that those trade routes passes through the Indian Ocean, Andaman Sea and the Malacca Strait, which brings about my point on the vulnerabilities of the shippings being interdicted by warships of those US-led Lackeys. The direct participation of a certain South Asian country would certainly makes things worse.

Don't forget that some hawks in Washington D.C are advocating the deployment of private military security company (PMSC) fighters to harrass shipping vessels between China and Africa plus West Asia - Something like pirates, but more modern and better equiped than those AK-47 armed wooden speedboats.

Therefore, China would require a solid presence of her own warships in the Indian Ocean as well. Bangladesh and/or Pakistan are good options for that, alongside Djbouti.

There is clear importance in relationship with south Asian countries. Pakistan will always be one of china's top 2 or 3 allies. And china will continue to provide assistance to Pakistan and Bangladesh as needed, whether economic or military. I think in this case, they are giving Sri Lanka a bit of a cold shoulder because it was favoring India a couple of times. Bangladesh will probably take note of that. But a lot of the future competition between china and America will be in the asean region. That's why you see so much effort devoted in this sphere.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Enough with warning and platitude I like this new aggressive confrontation with peeping tom. Yup dump those metal strip in front of the peeping tom engine intake see if they can take it
Mike Yeo
Wed, June 8, 2022, 10:08 AM

The intercept subsequently led to a “dangerous manoeuvre,” according a news release from the Australian Defence Department. Defence Minister Richard Marles later said the Chinese jet release chaff while flying just ahead of the Australian aircraft, leading to the chaff’s aluminum strips, which are designed to confuse radars, to enter the P-8′s engine.
Data from flight-tracking website Plane Finder showed the P-8A was most likely one of two operating from Clark Air Base in the Philippines, with the aircraft returning three hours after taking off and circling the airfield for an hour before landing.
The incident came to light days after Canadian news portal Global News reported Chinese jets are regularly flying as close as 20-100 feet from a Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora while monitoring activity around North Korea.

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Global News, citing anonymous sources, reported there have been about 60 intercepts of the CP-140, which is the Canadian designation of the P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft, over international waters by Chinese fighter jets since December 2021.
More than two dozen of these were deemed dangerous by Canada, with the CP-140 crews reporting the Chinese jets sometimes get close enough that crew members can “make eye contact with the Chinese pilots, and sometimes see them raising their middle fingers,” according to the news report.

A Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora arrives at 5 Wing Goose Bay in Newfoundland and Labrador on its way to Thule Air Base, Greenland, in 2021. (Master Cpl. Krista Blizzard/Canadian NORAD Region)

A Canadian Armed Forces statement released after the report confirmed that People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft did not adhere to international air safety norms.
The military added that the interactions were “unprofessional and/or put the safety of our RCAF personnel at risk,” and that in some instances, crew members “felt sufficiently at risk that they had to quickly modify their own flight path in order to increase separation and avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft.”
The statement said that “the occurrences have also been addressed through diplomatic channels.”

China has hit out at both the Australian and Canadian accusations, with Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Col. Tan Kefei accusing the Australian P-8 of entering airspace “near China’s Xisha Islands for close-in reconnaissance and continuously approached China’s territorial airspace over the Xisha Islands in disregard of repeated warnings from the Chinese side”
Xisha is China’s name for the Paracel group of islands, several of which are occupied by China, with one, Woody Island, featuring Chinese military infrastructure including a harbor and air base.
Kefei added that the People’s Liberation Army dispatched naval and air forces in response, whose actions were “professional, safe, reasonable and legitimate.”
Another spokesman, Senior Col. Wu Qian, accused Canadian military aircraft of increasing “close-up reconnaissance and provocations against China under the pretext of implementing the United Nations Security Council Resolutions,” adding that China’s responses were “reasonable, effective, safe and professional.”

 

[Overbom]

Aside from Ream news this week, I think something the Sri Lankan PM said is really interesting.

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I don't want to judge whether or not China is less committed to Pakistan and Sri Lanka, but it seems to me that ASEAN countries around SCS are going to be more strategically important to China at this point. As China becomes less dependent on Middle East oil imports in the future due to higher EV ownership and Russia oil imports, it's not as important to ensure that they can keep the Middle East route going. China's trades with ASEAN region is more important than ever. It's only going to grow in the future.

As everyone else, China has limited resources which it has to invest wisely. If Sri Lanka/Pakistan/Bangladesh dont like this, they need to show that they offer something more than they offered so far.

China has given/wasted enough money already in that region with very limited economic returns so far. Imagine if all that money had gone to ASEAN (Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia etc)

If you don't get enough ROI from your current investment, its time to invest somewhere else. In this case, ASEAN is very important. SCS is critical to China's national security and ASEAN is front and central on this aspect

 

[tphuang]

Enough with warning and platitude I like this new aggressive confrontation with peeping tom. Yup dump those metal strip in front of the peeping tom engine intake see if they can take it
Mike Yeo
Wed, June 8, 2022, 10:08 AM

The intercept subsequently led to a “dangerous manoeuvre,” according a news release from the Australian Defence Department. Defence Minister Richard Marles later said the Chinese jet release chaff while flying just ahead of the Australian aircraft, leading to the chaff’s aluminum strips, which are designed to confuse radars, to enter the P-8′s engine.
Data from flight-tracking website Plane Finder showed the P-8A was most likely one of two operating from Clark Air Base in the Philippines, with the aircraft returning three hours after taking off and circling the airfield for an hour before landing.
The incident came to light days after Canadian news portal Global News reported Chinese jets are regularly flying as close as 20-100 feet from a Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora while monitoring activity around North Korea.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Global News, citing anonymous sources, reported there have been about 60 intercepts of the CP-140, which is the Canadian designation of the P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft, over international waters by Chinese fighter jets since December 2021.
More than two dozen of these were deemed dangerous by Canada, with the CP-140 crews reporting the Chinese jets sometimes get close enough that crew members can “make eye contact with the Chinese pilots, and sometimes see them raising their middle fingers,” according to the news report.

A Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora arrives at 5 Wing Goose Bay in Newfoundland and Labrador on its way to Thule Air Base, Greenland, in 2021. (Master Cpl. Krista Blizzard/Canadian NORAD Region)

A Canadian Armed Forces statement released after the report confirmed that People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft did not adhere to international air safety norms.
The military added that the interactions were “unprofessional and/or put the safety of our RCAF personnel at risk,” and that in some instances, crew members “felt sufficiently at risk that they had to quickly modify their own flight path in order to increase separation and avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft.”
The statement said that “the occurrences have also been addressed through diplomatic channels.”

China has hit out at both the Australian and Canadian accusations, with Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Col. Tan Kefei accusing the Australian P-8 of entering airspace “near China’s Xisha Islands for close-in reconnaissance and continuously approached China’s territorial airspace over the Xisha Islands in disregard of repeated warnings from the Chinese side”
Xisha is China’s name for the Paracel group of islands, several of which are occupied by China, with one, Woody Island, featuring Chinese military infrastructure including a harbor and air base.
Kefei added that the People’s Liberation Army dispatched naval and air forces in response, whose actions were “professional, safe, reasonable and legitimate.”
Another spokesman, Senior Col. Wu Qian, accused Canadian military aircraft of increasing “close-up reconnaissance and provocations against China under the pretext of implementing the United Nations Security Council Resolutions,” adding that China’s responses were “reasonable, effective, safe and professional.”

There is a difference between Canada and Australia here. What Canada did is legal by any definition. Whether you accept their explanation of surveying North Korea is different story. What Australia did here would be illegal and violating Chinese sovereignty if you accept china's border claims. Which Australia clearly does not. In this case, Australia was clearly just trying to provoke pla. Australia does not need to fly into Chinese claimed areas to do all their spying. So, this is a very hostile action. china needs to do a better job of pointing out how unacceptable Australia's actions were.

Australia will take every opportunity to demonize china. China has to get in front of this type of news or it's side of the story will never get heard.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

It looks more and more that the US is using assets from allies to spy on or provoke China. But this approach can cut both way. China is more likely to confront them versus the US. Without any physical backing from the US, there is nothing Australia and Canada can do other that jump up and down screaming their head off.

Not optimistic that we will not see the confrontation with these tier two or three military powers further escalates if they do not back off.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

There is a difference between Canada and Australia here. What Canada did is legal by any definition. Whether you accept their explanation of surveying North Korea is different story. What Australia did here would be illegal and violating Chinese sovereignty if you accept china's border claims. Which Australia clearly does not. In this case, Australia was clearly just trying to provoke pla. Australia does not need to fly into Chinese claimed areas to do all their spying. So, this is a very hostile action. china needs to do a better job of pointing out how unacceptable Australia's actions were.

Australia will take every opportunity to demonize china. China has to get in front of this type of news or it's side of the story will never get heard.

Time for talking is over like they say nice guy does not get the girl. Who care about western world opinion! Now it is bare knuckle treatment. They can try to provoke again but they might pay it with down spy plane. No need to win brownie point from the western press what for?

 

[tphuang]

It looks more and more that the US is using assets from allies to spy on or provoke China. But this approach can cut both way. China is more likely to confront them versus the US. Without any physical backing from the US, there is nothing Australia and Canada can do other that jump up and down screaming their head off.

Not optimistic that we will not see the confrontation with these tier two or three military powers further escalates if they do not back off.

Against, this seems like an Australian decision. Let's not blame everything on America. The Australians have shown plenty of willingness to antagonize china for no good reason. If anything, it's been the Aussies that have been leading the effort to contain china and complain about Chinese growth.

 

[davidau]

Enough with warning and platitude I like this new aggressive confrontation with peeping tom. Yup dump those metal strip in front of the peeping tom engine intake see if they can take it
Mike Yeo
Wed, June 8, 2022, 10:08 AM

The intercept subsequently led to a “dangerous manoeuvre,” according a news release from the Australian Defence Department. Defence Minister Richard Marles later said the Chinese jet release chaff while flying just ahead of the Australian aircraft, leading to the chaff’s aluminum strips, which are designed to confuse radars, to enter the P-8′s engine.
Data from flight-tracking website Plane Finder showed the P-8A was most likely one of two operating from Clark Air Base in the Philippines, with the aircraft returning three hours after taking off and circling the airfield for an hour before landing.
The incident came to light days after Canadian news portal Global News reported Chinese jets are regularly flying as close as 20-100 feet from a Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora while monitoring activity around North Korea.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Global News, citing anonymous sources, reported there have been about 60 intercepts of the CP-140, which is the Canadian designation of the P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft, over international waters by Chinese fighter jets since December 2021.
More than two dozen of these were deemed dangerous by Canada, with the CP-140 crews reporting the Chinese jets sometimes get close enough that crew members can “make eye contact with the Chinese pilots, and sometimes see them raising their middle fingers,” according to the news report.

A Royal Canadian Air Force CP-140 Aurora arrives at 5 Wing Goose Bay in Newfoundland and Labrador on its way to Thule Air Base, Greenland, in 2021. (Master Cpl. Krista Blizzard/Canadian NORAD Region)

A Canadian Armed Forces statement released after the report confirmed that People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft did not adhere to international air safety norms.
The military added that the interactions were “unprofessional and/or put the safety of our RCAF personnel at risk,” and that in some instances, crew members “felt sufficiently at risk that they had to quickly modify their own flight path in order to increase separation and avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft.”
The statement said that “the occurrences have also been addressed through diplomatic channels.”

China has hit out at both the Australian and Canadian accusations, with Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Col. Tan Kefei accusing the Australian P-8 of entering airspace “near China’s Xisha Islands for close-in reconnaissance and continuously approached China’s territorial airspace over the Xisha Islands in disregard of repeated warnings from the Chinese side”
Xisha is China’s name for the Paracel group of islands, several of which are occupied by China, with one, Woody Island, featuring Chinese military infrastructure including a harbor and air base.
Kefei added that the People’s Liberation Army dispatched naval and air forces in response, whose actions were “professional, safe, reasonable and legitimate.”
Another spokesman, Senior Col. Wu Qian, accused Canadian military aircraft of increasing “close-up reconnaissance and provocations against China under the pretext of implementing the United Nations Security Council Resolutions,” adding that China’s responses were “reasonable, effective, safe and professional.”

Canada, and Australia are lapdogs of you know which country, trying to stir up troubles in SCS. What, if China does the same in Canada or Australia territorial sea and airspace???? There is a saying in China's military doctrine: We don't cause troubles, but we are not afraid of troubles.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

Against, this seems like an Australian decision. Let's not blame everything on America. The Australians have shown plenty of willingness to antagonize china for no good reason. If anything, it's been the Aussies that have been leading the effort to contain china and complain about Chinese growth.

Australia might, in the safety of her own island thousands of km away, scream and shout at China. But to fly all the way to S China Sea to provoke China, even with forward bases in Singapore or the Philippines, without US urging and backing ? I seriously doubt it.

Australia is not the smartest of the lot, but they ain't totally stupid and reckless.

And the same goes for Canada.