China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Overbom]

My impression from looking at some of these polls pew research and others have done is that US is still quite a bit more popular than China in Philippines

Yes. CIA is doing some work there

my question is what can Chinese government do to improve its relation with Philippines?

Steady BRI cooperation-development. It will take a long time to fix. Of course, its very important that the the South China Sea dispute between China and Philippines (+ rest of ASEAN) is resolved

How can they make in road with the military and general public during this time.

I think their military will remain hard pro-US until maybe the SCS dispute is resolved. The general public is part economics, part propaganda. Hopefully the new president will tale care of the CIA funded media and then work with China on economics.

How can China reward Philippines for picking a more pro-China candidate for 2 and possibly 3 elections in a row.

It depends on Philippines. China has many times wanted to closely cooperate with Philippines, but more often than not its internal politics that stall these efforts.

On its part, China only needs to encourage its companies to set up shop in Philippines to create economic growth and jobs.

This is going be a very slow process. Don't expect any quick results, and as usual the US can always provoke a SCS confrontation which would eliminate this relationship

 

[ansy1968]

If we can move the discussion away from internal Philippines politics to China's SCS strategy a little bit. My impression from looking at some of these polls pew research and others have done is that US is still quite a bit more popular than China in Philippines. Even if that's not the case, my question is what can Chinese government do to improve its relation with Philippines? Now that they have the fortune of a more Chinese friendly head of state for close to 2 decades. How can they make in road with the military and general public during this time. How can China reward Philippines for picking a more pro-China candidate for 2 and possibly 3 elections in a row. Being a former US colony, it's understandable that America would have tremendous influence in the elite circles and military. This won't go away over night.

@tphuang Sir may I ask what is the purpose of the polls? how do they frame it? and who are their audiences? EDSA Revolution is the high point of US influence, it was eroded by successive Neo liberal policy implemented by Cory Aquino. The last straw is her son Noynoy Aquino misrule, so everything local had hidden American interference. An example when signing a treaty or formulating foreign relation and economic policy we need the American approval first which lead to bureaucratic paralysations . Every president From the Mother up to her son had to travel to Washington DC to pay tribute. Only Duterte break the mold when he visited China first and what can China do , simple offer an alternative and give us a choice. Offer something with dignity, equality and respect. It's easy to break the American influence cause China haven't invaded us, she hasn't have any political baggage, the SCS issue? we acknowledge it was part of geopolitical struggle between the 2 superpower and don't want to get involved. The Ukraine War highlighted it to us. And being a former colony doesn't erase the brutality and crime committed, that scars are still very visible, only the hopelessness of our situation restrain us. As the American power weakened especially the US dollar, we can be easily assuage to follow the Chinese, cause for us the need to survive is the upmost important.

 

[ansy1968]

Yes. CIA is doing some work there



Steady BRI cooperation-development. It will take a long time to fix. Of course, its very important that the the South China Sea dispute between China and Philippines (+ rest of ASEAN) is resolved


I think their military will remain hard pro-US until maybe the SCS dispute is resolved. The general public is part economics, part propaganda. Hopefully the new president will tale care of the CIA funded media and then work with China on economics.



It depends on Philippines. China has many times wanted to closely cooperate with Philippines, but more often than not its internal politics that stall these efforts.

On its part, China only needs to encourage its companies to set up shop in Philippines to create economic growth and jobs.

This is going be a very slow process. Don't expect any quick results, and as usual the US can always provoke a SCS confrontation which would eliminate this relationship

@Overbom nicely done bro especially the time factor, like I said China development is like a tide that lift a lot of countries to progress. It's the economy stupid and IF they intertwine with RCEP at its Core everybody benefits. And a quick fix like coopting the Oligarch is a Pyrrhic victory, the Chinese knew it coming from a peasant revolutionary background that the Capitalist have no moral background and will sell their soul for profit.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

If we can move the discussion away from internal Philippines politics to China's SCS strategy a little bit. My impression from looking at some of these polls pew research and others have done is that US is still quite a bit more popular than China in Philippines. Even if that's not the case, my question is what can Chinese government do to improve its relation with Philippines? Now that they have the fortune of a more Chinese friendly head of state for close to 2 decades. How can they make in road with the military and general public during this time. How can China reward Philippines for picking a more pro-China candidate for 2 and possibly 3 elections in a row. Being a former US colony, it's understandable that America would have tremendous influence in the elite circles and military. This won't go away over night.

Spratlys issue has to be handled carefully and pragmatically. That's the key issue that China must be mindful because it's the key issue that regardless of politics Filipinos of all stripes and backgrounds can rally around. They become fervent Nationalist when it comes to what they perceive as their territorial integrity and China being portrayed as a menacing threat by almost all international media along with very pro-American local media in the Philippines that's the key issue in my opinion that will make or break the potential Sino-Philippine relationship.

Interestingly enough if China and Chinese investment continues to grow and make in roads in that country especially with all the infrastructure developments continuing on apace, employing local folks which directly and indirectly benefitting the regions respective economies then it'll be a tremendous boost of confidence for China's image and ascendant power showing real tangible results.

Filipino folks are some of the most friendliest, hospitable people in the world and some of the weakness I find with some Chinese is their inability to mingle, socialize, ingratiate with local folks which are some of the key advantages white western folks have and do with spectacular results.

 

[tphuang]

@tphuang Sir may I ask what is the purpose of the polls? how do they frame it? and who are their audiences? EDSA Revolution is the high point of US influence, it was eroded by successive Neo liberal policy implemented by Cory Aquino. The last straw is her son Noynoy Aquino misrule, so everything local had hidden American interference. An example when signing a treaty or formulating foreign relation and economic policy we need the American approval first which lead to bureaucratic paralysations . Every president From the Mother up to her son had to travel to Washington DC to pay tribute. Only Duterte break the mold when he visited China first and what can China do , simple offer an alternative and give us a choice. Offer something with dignity, equality and respect. It's easy to break the American influence cause China haven't invaded us, she hasn't have any political baggage, the SCS issue? we acknowledge it was part of geopolitical struggle between the 2 superpower and don't want to get involved. The Ukraine War highlighted it to us. And being a former colony doesn't erase the brutality and crime committed, that scars are still very visible, only the hopelessness of our situation restrain us. As the American power weakened especially the US dollar, we can be easily assuage to follow the Chinese, cause for us the need to survive is the upmost important.

Here is the thing. I see SCS islands as something that maybe Filipino military and elites care about, but the regular people don't. Why would they when it doesn't have anything to do with your daily life. And I think that American natsec types now believe in their own bs that everyone in ASEAN hates China because of they expanded a few islands that nobody cares about and cannot understand why Filipino government won't sign EDCA.

I don't want Chinese government of the same issue of having an overly optimistic view of its influence in Philippines and that not actually being the reality on the ground. I see ASEAN as a hugely important region for China going forward. Going forward, how can China support Philippines in a way that will draw it closer?

If it offers a lot of second hand J-10As, 056s and armored vehicles for really cheap, would that bring military closer to China?

How can China get Philippines to rely on it for military support rather than US?

Are their local markets that China can open up that would help Philippines?

What kind of industries/JVs can Chinese companies invest in Philippines to help local economy?

Spratlys issue has to be handled carefully and pragmatically. That's the key issue that China must be mindful because it's the key issue that regardless of politics Filipinos of all stripes and backgrounds can rally around. They become fervent Nationalist when it comes to what they perceive as their territorial integrity and China being portrayed as a menacing threat by almost all international media along with very pro-American local media in the Philippines that's the key issue in my opinion that will make or break the potential Sino-Philippine relationship.

Interestingly enough if China and Chinese investment continues to grow and make in roads in that country especially with all the infrastructure developments continuing on apace, employing local folks which directly and indirectly benefitting the regions respective economies then it'll be a tremendous boost of confidence for China's image and ascendant power showing real tangible results.

Filipino folks are some of the most friendliest, hospitable people in the world and some of the weakness I find with some Chinese is their inability to mingle, socialize, ingratiate with local folks which are some of the key advantages white western folks have and do with spectacular results.

That's also what I want to get to. What would be acceptable solution to Filipinos in terms of Spratlys?

 

[ansy1968]

Here is the thing. I see SCS islands as something that maybe Filipino military and elites care about, but the regular people don't. Why would they when it doesn't have anything to do with your daily life. And I think that American natsec types now believe in their own bs that everyone in ASEAN hates China because of they expanded a few islands that nobody cares about and cannot understand why Filipino government won't sign EDCA.

I don't want Chinese government of the same issue of having an overly optimistic view of its influence in Philippines and that not actually being the reality on the ground. I see ASEAN as a hugely important region for China going forward. Going forward, how can China support Philippines in a way that will draw it closer?

If it offers a lot of second hand J-10As, 056s and armored vehicles for really cheap, would that bring military closer to China?

How can China get Philippines to rely on it for military support rather than US?

Are their local markets that China can open up that would help Philippines?

What kind of industries/JVs can Chinese companies invest in Philippines to help local economy?


That's also what I want to get to. What would be acceptable solution to Filipinos in terms of Spratlys?

@tphuang Oil Sir Oil, We need a replacement for Malampaya by 2027, a JV is acceptable especially on Reed bank or Recto bank. Like an oil pipeline , this deal will tie both nation together. We need NO arm , we need development.

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May 19, 2021 — THE remaining reserves in the Malampaya gas field will be completely depleted by the first quarter of 2027, a senator said Tuesday, ...

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Mar 8, 2022 — The Philippines in 2018 inked a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in oil and gas development with China, as Beijing claims Recto Bank ...

 

[ansy1968]

@tphuang Sir see how the Collective West treat us, they want us to follow their diktat without question with a measly $150million for the whole of ASEAN ($15 million per country), while Ukraine get $44 billions with a B plus $3billions more from EU per month....lol we're not White so it's expected....lol the Chinese had just finished the 2 bridges under China Aid grant worth more than $190million, more than what the US offer and they're wondering why we support the Russian. Like I always said "Either you Put up or Shut up" and IF you prefer to talk the talk then just leave and never bother us cause we Asians can rely on ourselves and really prosper without your interference.

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WASHINGTON: United States President Joe Biden opened a gathering of Southeast Asian leaders with a promise to spend $150 million on their infrastructure, security, pandemic preparedness and other efforts aimed at countering the influence of rival China.

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Jul 28, 2021 — The four-lane bridge project has 50.5 meters approach road on Estrella Street, 66 meters Makati approach bridge, 146 meters main bridge and ...

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Apr 4, 2022 — The steel arch bridge has a total length of 680 meters and four lanes and is 70-meter long and 21-meter wide. It links Intramuros at Solana ...

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[Coalescence]

@tphuang Sir see how the Collective West treat us, they want us to follow their diktat without question with a measly $150million for the whole of ASEAN ($15 million per country), while Ukraine get $44 billions with a B plus $3billions more from EU per month....lol we're not White so it's expected....lol the Chinese had just finished the 2 bridges under China Aid grant worth more than $190million, more than what the US offer and they're wondering why we support the Russian. Like I always said "Either you Put up or Shut up" and IF you prefer to talk the talk then just leave and never bother us cause we Asians can rely on ourselves and really prosper without your interference.

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WASHINGTON: United States President Joe Biden opened a gathering of Southeast Asian leaders with a promise to spend $150 million on their infrastructure, security, pandemic preparedness and other efforts aimed at countering the influence of rival China.

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Jul 28, 2021 — The four-lane bridge project has 50.5 meters approach road on Estrella Street, 66 meters Makati approach bridge, 146 meters main bridge and ...

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Apr 4, 2022 — The steel arch bridge has a total length of 680 meters and four lanes and is 70-meter long and 21-meter wide. It links Intramuros at Solana ...

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Bro, this might be off-topic, but I want to ask. Any news on high speed railways that will be connected from Luzon to Mindanao that is planned to be built? I want to visit my friend over at Zamboanga one day, but I don't want to pay a lot for flights.

 

[B.I.B.]

@tphuang Sir see how the Collective West treat us, they want us to follow their diktat without question with a measly $150million for the whole of ASEAN ($15 million per country), while Ukraine get $44 billions with a B plus $3billions more from EU per month....lol we're not White so it's expected....lol the Chinese had just finished the 2 bridges under China Aid grant worth more than $190million, more than what the US offer and they're wondering why we support the Russian. Like I always said "Either you Put up or Shut up" and IF you prefer to talk the talk then just leave and never bother us cause we Asians can rely on ourselves and really prosper without your interference.

​

Much of those billions will be siphoned off and left Ukraine within 24hrs of arrival.

 

[ansy1968]

Bro, this might be off-topic, but I want to ask. Any news on high speed railways that will be connected from Luzon to Mindanao that is planned to be built? I want to visit my friend over at Zamboanga one day, but I don't want to pay a lot for flights.

@Coalescence bro in Luzon there will be a linkage starting from Clark airport to Legaspi City, in between Subic to Clark and in the South Batangas port connecting to South Luzon Railway. Sorry the Mindanao railway connecting Zamboanga City from Davao may take a decade to finished. Below are the current Railway project under construction and finance by China and Japan.

1) North South Commuter Railway project from Clark to Calamba (Japan ODA)

2) Subic to Clark railway (China ODA)

3) Batangas port to Calamba railway part of North South Rail (China funded ODA)

4)PNR Bicol Express from Calamba all the way to Legaspi City, the biggest rail project and the most expensive up to present (China funded ODA)

5) Mindanao railway First phase Tagum-Davao-Digos line (China funded ODA) if complete the whole Mindanao Railway will circle the Whole Island and will be the largest and the most expensive.

IF all this project are finished especially the Mindanao Railway (which the Japanese never want to participate cause for them it's not a viable business venture) It will bring prosperity and more purchasing power to the countryside as this railway will bring logistic cost down. And you can see where China aid is focus in the countryside (why China had favorable view but never been surveyed), while Japan prefer the urban area were sure and quick return of ROI. And from the info project above you can see China aid dwarf that of Japan 2 to 1. $20 billion to $10 billion. This competition between the 2 superpower is a blessing for us. Before we need to beg and accept onerous loan provision from the Collective West, now we can choose and pick what is favorable to us, Japan was force to offer low concession loan just to keep pace and unable to compete dollar to dollar against the Chinese