China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

Duterte's suspension of pursuing the SCS arbitration results in 2016 had stunned everyone. You would think on the heel of the favorable arbitration any Philippine leader would build upon the momentum. This would be the conventional wisdom: Philippine being once US's colony, most of its elite indoctrinated by and embracing the US, and the arbitration being bank-rolled and strongly supported by the US. Even if pursuing it will lead to disaster for Philippine, no one would question the decision. It would take someone with Duterte's courage and out-of-box thinking to do what he did and stick to it despite all the ensuing criticism.

But Duterte's decision significantly lowered the tension between Philippine and China, to the disappointment of the US. And China and the US ended up both courting Philippine.

Don't know how the SCS problem will be resolved eventually, but I know 1) it won't be resolved if the US continues to stir up for its own purpose and 2) everyone has to compromise if a solution is to be found. Looking at China's the track records of settling border issues with the 14 countries it shares land borders, it has long since settled with 12 of them, mostly to their favor. The only one country that became aggressive got its ass kicked and is still nurturing its wounded pride today. The current resource development agreement between Philippine and China is a step in the right direction, and may set an example to future agreements among SCS claimants. Pragmatism beats dogmatism.

Hi weig2000,

That's what make him a great leader, and feared by the elites and the US. You know Trump save Duterte, There is a plan coup orchestrated by the former US Amb Goldberg, he even had a primer of how to do it. In the early stages of Duterte term there is a lot of negative news about him, calling him a despot, a murderer and a dictator by western MSM. But he didn't flinch and even had the gall to call Obama a SOB. That pressure ease when Trump meet Duterte in Manila for a summit. Here their friendship grew. That is why Trump popularity in the Philippine and among the Fil-AM is high. We were given a free hand by Trump to pursue Pres Duterte independent foreign policy, "A FRIEND TO ALL ENEMY TO NONE".

But Duterte's decision significantly lowered the tension between Philippine and China, to the disappointment of the US. And China and the US ended up both courting Philippine.

Which is to our national interest, past President align their foreign policy with the US and the American repay our loyalty with scorn and pittance. It's like we never achieved our independence from them.

1) it won't be resolved if the US continues to stir up for its own purpose

I smell trouble ahead, Biden administration is a carbon copy of Obama, Here the solution is to promote the Duterte Legacy as an option to past policy. People had awaken and had seen the benefit of an independent foreign policy, the respectability that we just earned.

2) everyone has to compromise if a solution is to be found.

Yup China had a big role to play, joint oil exploration , SCS COC, the Vaccine and lately RCEP. all of this will help to promote the Duterte legacy and it need to move fast, 2022 election is near. America is planning to intervene big time and not to repeat it's past mistake. Here's a nice tidbit for you Do you know that both Dominion system use in the US election and smartmatic in the Philippine had the same owner and provider . during the last election smartmatic was involved in a major controversy regarding our VP race, the same thing happen to Trump in this year election. coincidental?

 

[gelgoog]

Now that the US has mostly cleaned house in the Americas (Brazil, Equator, etc) I expect them to start doing coups in places like the Phillipines. Especially with a foreign policy team that comes from Obama.

 

[ansy1968]

Now that the US has mostly cleaned house in the Americas (Brazil, Equator, etc) I expect them to start doing coups in places like the Phillipines. Especially with a foreign policy team that comes from Obama.

Hi gelgoog,

Coup nahhh!!!, Duterte is so popular and had the loyalty of the ARMED FORCES, the opposition is unpopular as ever and even scorned. What the American is looking for is a politician that they can control, Presidential election is coming in 2022. The problem whom to choose, there is a lot of political butterflies, a term we frequently used for politician who flits and floats from party to party. So our politics is personality driven and regional in scope. Here corruption and influence peddling is prevalent, a playground for the rich and elites since you need a lot of financial resources to be elected. A lot like the US, a legacy gift that the American is so proud off. The situation now is everybody want to be in the good side of Duterte, there are some politician trying to distinguish himself apart from Duterte by criticizing his every action but was quickly put down by the masses. So Duterte hold the key and is holding his card close to his chest, the only recourse for the American is cheating for its prefer candidate thru the counting system, same thing they had done in the last election, they can't cheat Duterte lead , it's had a huge margin, but the VP race is close , so that's Smartmatic role in placing an illegitimate VP. And the American PLAN B is to remove Duterte and place her as his replacement thru a PEOPLE POWER type uprising. That is the master plan pen by the former AMB Goldberg, it's a eerie resemblance to what happen to Ukraine , HKG and lately in Belarus.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’

In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.

“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.

The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.

“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.

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[Hendrik_2000]

Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’

In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.

“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.

The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.

“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.

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That is assuming you can get close to island and disgorge marine But the change of doing that will be zero as tey first has to run the gauntlet of Chinese barage of missile and cruise missile . The fact that they are 3 large airfield with interlocking defense will even make it harder to defeat. They can rain missile from submarine but they can be repair and most of sensitive weapon are store underground. Any attack on SCS will be responded with barage of missile on US bases all across Japan, Korea, Guam and Deigo garcia pick your choice

 

[manqiangrexue]

Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’

In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.

“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.

The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.

“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.

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The thing about military bases of large powerful countries is that they don't stand alone and attacking them leads to war regardless of the outcome of any small battle. They were built to extend China's maritime military reach, NOT to serve as weapons for war against major adversaries. It's just like American bases all over the world; they can be overwhelmed and taken out in seconds to minutes by a missile barrage. But then what? You just started a war with the US. Standing alone, these islands just like US bases, can be seen as vulnerabilities but in fact, they are assets because they can serve many maritime missions and be off limits from attack simply due to their national affiliations.

 

[gelgoog]

The US is still thinking in WW2 terms. Space assets for reconaissance together with missile assets would preempt something like that.
The airforces in those bases are just there to prevent other regional powers, not the USA, from having control over the area.

 

[reservior dogs]

Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’

In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.

“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.

The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.

“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.

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Islands, especially small islands, lack strategic depth and is always subject to attack. However, you have to look at the entire chessboard. The U.S. have assets in our military bases in Japan, South Korea and islands ringing China. If a war were to break out (attacking the Chinese islands cannot occur except in war), these U.S. assets are all lacking in strategic depth and will be destroyed very quickly. Just think about how much fire power each side has and how many places to hide these fire power on each side and you get the picture. In such a war, it is not just the Chinese islands that will be destroyed, the U.S. bases will also. In the future, with the Chinese strategic bomber B-20 coming online, Guam and even Hawaii will be at risk. Once these assets are destroyed, help will have to come from Hawaii or Australia. CSGs are very quickly detected if they come close. We can imagine in a conflict like that, even after destroyed, the Chinese islands can quickly be fixed to be forward bases and observation posts. Of course the same could also be said of the U.S. bases, however, there are two big differences.

1. Once the fire power is destroyed in the U.S. base, it must be re-supplied by ship from a very far distance away. Ships that will be very vulnerable to attacks.

2. The bases that are on islands all the way up to Okinawa will be subject to Chinese invasion. Once the Chinese invaded and taken over these islands, they will extend their reach from the first island chain out and make places like Guam more vulnerable. For the U.S., to retake these islands will require boats, boats that are vulnerable to being attacked again.

In peace time, these man made islands are very useful in extending the reach of the PLAN as well as the Chinese Coastguard. It allowed them to control contested waters with countries like Vietnam.

 

[gadgetcool5]

US strategic depth of its bases isn't the US bases in Japan, South Korea, and other countries in themselves. It's the fact that an attack on a US base in Japan will bring Japan into the war. The same with South Korea. Lots more cannon fodder for the Americans.

 

[Nobonita Barua]

Beijing’s South China Sea military bases ‘are vulnerable to attack and will be of little use in a war’

In the latest edition of Naval and Merchant Ships, a Beijing-based monthly magazine, highlighted the artificial islands’ weaknesses in four areas: their distance from the mainland, small size, the limited capacity of their airstrips and the multiple routes by which they could be attacked.

“These artificial islands have unique advantages in safeguarding Chinese sovereignty and maintaining a military presence in the deep ocean, but they have natural disadvantages in self-defence,” said the article.

The magazine said the islands were deep in the South China Sea and far from the Chinese mainland. It also warned there was no coherent chain connecting them, so it would be difficult to provide support if one came under attack.

“Take the example of the Fiery Cross Reef. It has a runway now, but it’s 1,000km (600 miles) away from Sanya city in Hainan province.” The distance means that China’s fastest combat support ships would need more than 20 hours to reach the island.

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Yap.
So will be Guam & Hawaii