Hi localizer,Exactly my assessment. They know any US presence would be permanent if China loses. Key is to play both sides while building up self defense capabilities. However the move favors China.
Duterte presidential victory, means there is an alternative option, that we can finally determine our own fate, and not be dictated by establish elites and the US. The past administration failures is a major contributor and we see the unseen hand of the US maneuvering behind the scene. The SCS arbitration is one of them and cost us our traditional fishing ground in scarborough shoal and also the political interference by the US ambassador (cia) goldberg during the last election.
However the move favors China.
We filipinos had no quarrel with China, even if there is discrimination against the Chinese we see them as good neighbors cause they didnt invade us. What Duterte had done is implement an independent foreign policy, friends to all enemy to none, which is enshrine in our constitution. And China will always be there while the US is far away, we know that America can instantly change its policy and left you alone holding the baggage.
Now the latest news about the pardon on US serviceman PEMBERTON is an example of playing both side, its a surprise action coming out of the blue. Its is done to help Trump in his reelection campaign. He is going against the grain of public opinion for a strategic purposes, If Biden wins there will be trouble in the Phillippines, The neo liberal side of the DNC will punish Duterte for offending their majesty Obama for calling him a SOB. and there are forces now moving and sowing the seed for a possible coup with the help of the oligarch and the elites.