China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Shaolian]

By the way, the 2019 Phillipines elections are their mid-terms. Duterte is only half-way into his full 6-year presidential term.

 

[PhSt]

Alternatively, he can try to pull a Xi Jingping and abolish term limits or at least extend them.

I dont think this will be a good idea though, such actions can be used against Duterte by the opposition and will give the US an excuse to wage another Venezuela style regime change operation in the country. A dozen NGOs operating in the country with links to CIA are already working overtime to undermine the Duterte government. The best thing China can do is set up their own NGOs in the country to support politicians that are China friendly and continue to build on the foundations Duterte created to foster greater economic and cultural ties between the two countries.

 

[antiterror13]

and for those of you who are not to familiar with Philippines politics, Du30 cannot run for a 2nd term. But good news is Du30's daughter is going to run for President her name is Sarah Duterte. Du30's approval ratings is still above 80 percent. So if Sarah Du30 becomes President Philippines-China relations will still be good.

Thats true ... but his term will end in 2022 ... still far away. The term in the Philippine is 6 years ... like 2 terms in NZ (2 x 3 years)

 

[PhSt]

Flood China with lawsuits, analyst urges Philippines
MANILA

-- The Philippine government should lodge complaints in all available platforms against China to divert international attention on its incursions in contested waters, a political risk analyst said Sunday.

Filipino fishermen and former officials last week filed a complaint before the International Criminal Court, accusing Chinese President Xi Jinping of crimes against humanity in connection with Beijing's "systematic plan to control the South China Sea."


The move is a "good first phase to defend the Philippines from China's siege of the West Philippine Sea," said Anders Corr, whose analytics firm publishes the Journal of Political Risk.

The complaint, he said, increases public awareness of the problem and focuses international attention on China's "theft of natural resources."

"We need more such cases in every venue possible. We should be litigating against China and what it's trying to do," Corr told ANC.

"Bringing these lawsuits have more than legal impact. It has a public relations impact. It brings the attention of the Philippine community and also the world community to bear on China. It takes China to the court of public opinion," he added.

Among legal venues where the Philippines can take China are the United Nations General Assembly and the body's Human Rights Commission, he said.


Manila and its longtime ally Washington should also increase naval forces in the West Philippine Sea to support a UN-backed arbitral tribunal's decision to invalidate Beijing's sweeping claims over the strategic waterway.

"You can have international law in your favor but if you don't have the force to back it up then the Chinese will just ignore it," he said.

The Philippines and China have long sparred over the South China Sea, but relations improved considerably under President Rodrigo Duterte, who set aside the 2016 landmark legal victory for enhanced ties.

Corr, however, warned that the Philippine is "very likely" to lose natural resources if it fails to pay back China for loans.

Deals between the 2 states, he said, should be examined by the Philippine Congress.

"They shouldn't just be taken lightly. These will be putting the children of the Philippines for generations into a debt trap that they will probably not be able to get out of... Beijing will have them in virtual debt servitude for decades or even a century," he warned.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Allow me to introduce the CIA agitator in chief, Anders Corr, he claims to own some sort of analytics firm but really its nothing more but a propaganda mill for Washington to help propagate their anti-Chinese information drive in east and south east Asian countries. Anders Corr it seems is assigned primarily in the Philippines, he is active in movements critical of the current Duterte administration for its pro China policies. It is a shame how so many Filipinos are falling for his lies. He even operates his own Facebook account.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What is China going to do to counteract this brazen hostility by America with the aim to harm chinese interests in its neighboring countries? Sitting down and doing nothing will be a huge mistake in my opinion and will only encourage USA to sabotage chinese interests even more. Something needs to be done to push against American machinations in the south China sea.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Allow me to introduce the CIA agitator in chief, ...

you КГБ
?

 

[Jura The idiot]

wow,
Duterte threatens 'suicide mission' if Beijing oversteps in South China Sea

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has threatened to send his troops on a "suicide mission" if Beijing doesn't "lay off" a Manila-occupied island in the South China Sea.
Duterte's speech at a rally in the city of Puerto Princesa in Palawan came days after the Philippine government claimed

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

had been spotted in recent months around Manila's Thitu Island in the Spratly Island chain.
"Let us be friends, but do not touch Pagasa Island and the rest," Duterte said, according to CNN Philippines, using the Philippine word Pagasa for Thitu.
"If you make moves there, that's a different story. I will tell my soldiers, 'Prepare for suicide mission'."
Duterte said his words were not a warning, but rather "advice to my friends."
"I will not plead or beg, but I'm just telling you that lay off the Pag-asa because I have soldiers there," he said,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.
CNN has reached out to the Philippines government for further comment.
A small Philippine military garrison as well as about 100 civilians are based on Thitu, which lies about 500 kilometers (310 miles) from Palawan, one of the islands that make up the Philippines.
Tensions have risen since the start of 2019 in the South China Sea, one of the world's most disputed regions and an important shipping lane.
The Philippines and China each claim overlapping areas of the vast sea, along with multiple other countries including Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. The area where Thitu is located is also claimed by China as part of its territory.
The latest arrival of Chinese vessels around Thitu Island has provoked a stern response from Manila.
The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs in a statement Thursday said their presence was "illegal" and a "clear violation of Philippine sovereignty."
"It has been observed that Chinese vessels have been present in large numbers and for sustained and recurring periods — what is commonly referred to as 'swarming' tactics — raising questions about their intent as well as concerns over their role in support of coercive objectives," the Philippine statement said.
Independent analysis by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the hundreds of vessels which have appeared around Thitu Island since January has determined they are composed of dozens of fishing vessels, as well as China Coast Guard ships and

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

When asked about the disputed island on Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang pointed to a meeting between Philippine and Chinese representatives to discuss a bilateral consultation mechanism to avoid South China Sea conflicts.
"I believe that the consensus reached by the two sides through discussion in this meeting is the best answer to your question," he said.
Diplomacy and intimidation
To reinforce its claims to the South China Sea, China has built and militarized artificial islands and has attempted to undermine other countries' positions through a combination of diplomacy and intimidation.
Its aggressive moves in the region had antagonized previous Philippine administrations, which took Beijing to court to prove its claims over the sea.
But relations between China and the Philippines have warmed considerably since the 2016 inauguration of Duterte, who has pushed for a closer economic relationship with Beijing.
"I need China. More than anybody else at this point, I need China," Duterte said before flying to China in April 2018.
Compared with his predecessors, Duterte has viewed the dispute in the South China Sea as

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

than a matter of principle.
But China has been strengthening its hold over the region. In May 2018, Beijing announced it had

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

on islands under its control for the first time, a big step in the militarization of the region.
The United States has also ramped up its freedom of navigation exercises in the region under US President Donald Trump, in an apparent attempt to hold back Chinese influence.
In a defiant statement to then-US Secretary of Defense James Mattis during a Beijing meeting in June 2018, President Xi Jinping said China wouldn't give up

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Fishing vessels and naval ships
Philippines armed forces spokesperson Edgard Arevalo cautioned on Monday that it was difficult to quantify how many ships are around the island at any one time, as Chinese vessels "come and go" from the area.
In an article published in February, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative said the sudden increase in the number of ships between December and January appeared to be a response to reclamation and construction by the Philippines government.
"The fishing boats have mostly been anchored between 2 and 5.5 nautical miles west of Thitu, while the naval and coast guard ships operate slightly farther away to the south and west," the AMTI said in an article.
"The fishing vessels display all the hallmarks of belonging to China's maritime militia, including having no gear in the water that would indicate fishing activity and disabling their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transceivers to hide their activities."
AMTI noted that Thitu is only about 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) from Subi Reef, one of the main places China has fortified in its recent buildup in the South China Sea.
The Philippines Foreign Ministry said on Thursday if the Chinese government didn't repudiate the actions of the fishing vessels in the vicinity of Thitu, it would be assumed to have directed them.
"The presence of Chinese vessels within the (island group), whether military, fishing or other vessels, will thus continue to be the subject of appropriate action by the Philippines," the statement said.
Duterte's administration has made threats of military action against Chinese troops in the South China Sea before which have come to nothing. In May 2018, his foreign minister

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

if Beijing attempted to access the oil and gas reportedly buried beneath the sea.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Beijing tried to block Philippine military facilities on disputed island ‘over fears US could use them’

• Concern that new and upgraded facilities on Thitu could be shared with the US, undermining China’s military advantage in the South China Sea
• Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte demanded Beijing ‘lay off the island’ after it sent about 275 boats there as an apparent warning

Updated: 2:46pm, 13 Apr, 2019

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China’s deployment of a large fleet of vessels to the Philippines-held Thitu Island in the South China Sea is aimed at blocking the country’s construction of military facilities on the disputed island in the Spratly chain because it is concerned that the United States will be able to use such facilities, diplomatic observers said.

The two countries have been involved in a diplomatic stand-off over an increased presence of

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

near Thitu island from January to March.
The flare-up coincided with the two-week US-Philippines annual Balikatan exercise, which is taking place until Friday.

The US sent an amphibious assault ship – the USS Wasp, capable of carrying fighter jets such as the F-35B – to join the drills for the first time. They were held near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, seized by China from the Philippines in 2012.

In December, the Philippine government announced that a new beaching ramp on Thitu was under construction and that it had plans for military barracks and runway repairs.

Xu Liping, a director for Southeast Asia studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, agreed with the suggestion that the US military could use those facilities after the repairs and upgrades.

“US warships could sail near the island and fighter jets could land or take off from the runway, directly threatening the safety of China’s island reef outposts in the Spratly Islands,” Xu said.

He said that China’s decision to send vessels near the island was a “mild warning” that the Philippines’ heavy construction of infrastructure is a challenge to Beijing’s wish to maintain the island’s status quo.

Thitu – or Pagasa, as it is called in the Philippines – is the largest of the nine features occupied by the Philippines and is home to about 100 civilians along with a small military garrison. It also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.

Zhang Mingliang, an associate professor specialising in South China Sea studies at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said the Philippines was “changing the status quo” of the island” by pushing new military construction.

He said Chinese vessels’ presence was “a posture of warning over the new construction” despite not actually blocking access for the Philippines to bring in construction equipment.

But Zhang said Beijing would be concerned that “Manila could share those military facilities currently under repairs and upgrades on Thitu with the US for the purpose of surveillance on China, undermining China’s military advantage in the South China Sea through the building of man-made islands”.

The Philippines has been vocal about the presence of Chinese vessels, with President Rodrigo Duterte demanding Beijing

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

and threatening to order his military to take suicide missions to defend his nation’s claim over it. China’s foreign ministry hit back, with spokesman Lu Kang saying that Spratlys were within China’s territory.
Washington-based think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) stated that the boats had the characteristics of China’s maritime militia.

The approximately 275 Chinese vessels sent to Thitu area included vessels from the navy and coastguard along with dozens of fishing boats, according to the CSIS. Richard Heydarian, a Manila-based academic and military analyst, said “a significant number of them belong to Chinese People’s Liberation Army [PLA] maritime militia forces”.

The increased presence was to “prevent the Philippines from building structures on the sandy cay, a low-tide elevation in Thitu’s territorial sea”, Heydarian said.

These deployments began in mid-December, with their number reaching a high of 95 that month before dropping in January, according to the think tank’s analysis of satellite images.

“This is not really helpful to President Duterte because he is trying very hard to sell his rapprochement to China to the Philippines people, including to the Philippines military, which remains very sceptical of China,” Heydarian said.

Relations between China and the Philippines have deteriorated, with Duterte’s predecessor Benigno Aquino taking the South China Sea disputes to an international tribunal that in 2016 ruled in favour of the Philippines. Beijing said it would ignore the ruling.

A Chinese think tank, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggested that China and the Philippines could discuss a fishing agreement for Thitu to ease tensions between the countries.

Zhu Feng, a professor specialising in US studies at Nanjing University, said one of the causes of recent tensions over Thitu was that Beijing had not yet allowed Philippine fishing boats access to Scarborough Shoal.

“The massive presence of about 275 Chinese vessels also makes Manila worry about a recurrence of the Scarborough Shoal stand-off,” Zhu said. “It shows that disputes over territorial claims and economic rights in the South China Sea still have no solution.”

But Heydarian said such an offer was unlikely to be accepted by the Philippines, with China still demanding the right to regulate fishing activities – which would be unacceptable to the Philippines because it claims Scarborough Shoal as its territory.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations professor, said recent defiant gestures by the Philippines indicated that it was returning to the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that had been favoured by Aquino.
But Shen said the two sides could manage the tensions themselves through non-confrontational consultation. “No conflict between China and the Philippines leaves the US no room to [get involved],” he said.

 

[Jura The idiot]

recalled I'd heard ...
Oct 12, 2016

what the heck is this supposed to mean (SCS mentioned inside; dated Oct 11, 2016)?
Over 1,000 Protest in Front of Chinese Defense Ministry

source is Military.com

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

then Oct 13, 2016

oh I would've thought the organizers would've been caught and sent to some tough prison in ... the Gobi Desert (if there is such a thing as a tough prison in the Gobi Desert

;

now (unrelated?)
China Sentences Military Veterans for Protesting

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Chinese courts announced multiple-year prison sentences Friday for more than three dozen military veterans who protested over the lack of benefits, saying the former soldiers had disrupted social order in a bid to further their own interests.

The announcements from the courts in the eastern provinces of Shandong and Jiangsu follow repeated demonstrations by veterans of various ages who say they haven't been adequately compensated for their service.

Veterans have long been organizing quietly, but in recent years have staged attention-getting protests outside government offices and the defense ministry's headquarters in Beijing that prompted the government to establish a Ministry of Veterans Affairs last year.

The 47 sentenced to up to six years had been involved in protests last year that involved hundreds of former soldiers.

China's ruling Communist Party tightly restricts all public demonstrations and while it relies on the armed forces to maintain its hold on power, many veterans say they have been left to fend for themselves on meager pensions and little support.

Such complaints came to a head last year when more than 1,000 retired soldiers, including locals and many others who rushed in from around the country, descended on government offices in the eastern city of Zhenjiang, in Jiangsu province. For four days, they occupied a public plaza and a street, singing and chanting as they demanded answers over the alleged beating of a fellow veteran by government-hired thugs after he petitioned for better benefits, supporters said.

Scenes of paramilitary police and armored vehicles lining Zhenjiang's streets further exacerbated the fraught relationship between the government and disgruntled veterans.

 

[Dolcevita]

Remember Aquino Administration's claim that the United States brokered an agreement between Philippines and China to pull out their respective vessels during the standoff at the Scarborough Shoal in 2012. Now exposed as fake and lies as current presidential spokesperson officially confirmed no evidence of such agreement exist.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

No US-brokered talks to end Panatag Shoal standoff
By Azer Parrocha April 18, 2019, 12:19 pm

MANILA -- Malacañang on Thursday rejected the statement of former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario that the United States brokered an agreement with the Philippines and China to pull out their respective vessels during the standoff at the Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal in 2012.

“There is no proof that the United States has brokered an agreement for the Philippines and China to withdraw their respective vessels during the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012,” Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo said in a statement.

Panelo, however, said that even if such brokering took place, del Rosario’s decision to agree to the US proposal and trust that China would keep its word showed his “inexperience” as foreign affairs chief.

“Even if there was such brokering, Mr. del Rosario’s ordering the withdrawal of Philippine vessel or vessels without the knowledge and consent of former President Aquino demonstrated his inexperience and naïveté in the art of psychological warfare,” he added.

Del Rosario earlier claimed that the US brokered talks to end the standoff by asking the two countries to pull out their vessels from the area.

On June 15, 2012, Philippines withdrew its two vessels, but China did not.

Panelo further blamed del Rosario for the Philippines losing possession of the shoal, saying the Duterte administration was only trying to “fix his mess.”

Del Rosario earlier criticized Panelo’s statement that the current administration never shelved the arbitral ruling won by the Philippines against China at The Hague.

The former Cabinet member described Panelo’s remark as “mindless”, noting that the presidential spokesperson “appears to be in surrender without lifting a finger to peacefully defend what is ours.”

“By such horrendous mistake, we lost Scarborough Shoal to the Chinese under Mr. del Rosario’s watch,” Panelo said.

“We are now trying to fix his mess, and no amount of justification from him could justify his monumental blunder,” he added.

Panelo also dismissed del Rosario’s statement as “pretended patriotism,” stressing that reacting to reports on the increased presence of Chinese vessels suspected to be maritime militia without verifying reports could lead to conflict between the two countries.

“What is mindless is when one makes reckless statements under the guise of pretended patriotism on unverified reports of intrusion or harassment, or performs actions that could provoke an armed retaliation,” Panelo said.

Citing the President, Panelo said the “best way” to solve the sea row between the Philippines and China is through negotiations.

“The President believes, and rightly so, that the best way to resolve this maritime dispute is through peaceful and diplomatic negotiations with China, a mode that avoids a violent confrontation to resolve international disputes,” Panelo said.

He said opting to negotiate with China did not mean that the Duterte administration was setting aside the arbitral ruling.

“Adopting such universally accepted dispute resolution relative to the present conflict is not an act of weakness nor is it deemed to be abandonment or shelving of the arbitration ruling in our favor,” he added.

Panelo earlier said the Philippines has already filed a "salvo of diplomatic notes" against China for the continued activity of Chinese vessels and is currently waiting for its response.

He emphasized the importance of maintaining “equilibrium” between the Philippines and China amid the ongoing sea row. (PNA)

 

[Rachmaninov]

New satellite imagery of the Subi Reef from Dec 2018

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!