China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ougoah]

Guys that stuff above is getting personal. FON is US' way to show defiance against China's claims. I think China's just tired of US double standards. US gets to go wherever and invade whoever with any reasons it wants to invent and people are only allowed to question them but no one can possibly act against them (like US is acting against China re SCS). US disregards international law all the time and tries to enforce it on China. The difference between the two and any other nation with the US is mostly military power, through which political power is derived (if economic might is worth anywhere near as much, Japan and Germany would be political superpowers but they are both smaller players). Therefore China considers meeting and eventually exceeding US military might as one of the main priorities.

China's claims in SCS is not an invasion of anyone's sovereignty. This is objective fact. It is however considered an invasion of international waters. But China is claiming never been officially claimed before (pre 19th and 20th century disputes!) islands. Those islands come with the seas surrounding them according to international laws and agreements. Therefore whoever gets those disputed islands gets the waters. So far China's got the best claim just from some historical records. It is not great but definitely stronger claim than the other pathetic excuses for claims. Therefore all this resistance is purely based from the unwillingness of the US to cede such a massive valuable chunk of water to China. The neighbours obviously agree with the US because they only have more to gain from that. Add in the fear and hatred for "communists" and the fear and hatred for Chinese (purely racism... yellow peril, fumanchu,.... decades of hate and organised racism against Chinese) and one begins to understand what China is up against. You can't reason with irrational fear and hatred. Therefore the best course of action for China is to meet that threat with force. It's learnt the lesson from colonialists a long time ago. It's had centuries to understand the nature of humanity and decades to prepare. Like Manqian said, it understands the only way to deal with western politics and methods is to strengthen its own military so that it can hit back. Despite the bullshit talk about diplomacy and being equitable etc... western nations have proved in every single instance that they are only interested in making gains through hook or crook. Any few instances of goodwill through the centuries have been done out of consideration for reputation and making less obvious gains. So we arrive at today where China presents somewhat more of a challenge for the US to bully around and continue treating with this double standard. It is surely not happy about China finding the ability to defend itself when it wants all subjects to be rolled over whenever it wishes. The sentiment around the western world is one of bitterness at this fact. Is it any wonder? It's really just too obvious to "us". There are westerners who are conscious of these real inequities and problems with how the world is running but they are far and few between.

The US is left with FON with their western buddies today. Whether or not they decide to shoot will depend on their assessment of China's resolve in defending those islands and what they will do in reaction to being shot at. If the political talk of China should leave because that's international waters continues, then China should raise the issue of US involvement in Syria today. Should also mention their bases around the world, installed not with the welcome of locals despite what the western censorship media wants the world to believe. If China backs away from the island claims, should the US not leave their military installments around the world in the spirit of fairness? Oh if the US were invited officially and bought off the local leaders, should the US then stop interfering with foreign issues that have little to do with them? Why does it feel compelled to weigh in and exercise its will in every instance? It has as much right to weigh in on Syria as China does. Similarly with every single US foreign excursion. They created all the mess in east Asia and carry responsibility for most of the mess in the Arab world. If China backs off and only stays within the mainland, so should the US but one side is FAR more active in messing around. There's little stopping China from assisting Iran with weapons development and giving them access to every piece of military technology they want to if the US were to act. They could create another block of power that is more of a nightmare to the US if they wanted to.

TL;DR Basically the US having any say in this matter is the pot calling the kettle black and it is in no way an impartial or fair participant in the discussion. The threat of force was started by the US both verbally and through the actions they've taken since the 90s perhaps even earlier. So basically they should shut up, go home, and look into the mirror for a while. Of course this will never happen and they wish for a "regime change" in China. Time will tell who's got the tools. Might is not right.

 

[ougoah]

"In America, we still have dreams" with the implication that certain other countries do not afford its citizens the same privileges. If one person's "American dream" is to convert the republic into a Sharia state, it contradicts everyone else's! Who's dream deserves realisation?... the universe proceeds to break down. Only fools believe in this sort of garbage. Maybe in their life of privilege they know no better. The millions of corpses their "dreams" have created will haunt them for an eternity. But most are just too dumb/ willingly ignorant to accept truth and reality. War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength... The closest Orwellian state is not PRC, not by the longest stretch of the imagination if facts and truth are considered.

 

[plawolf]

Actually it wouldn't be hard for the USN alone to take or destroy those islands. They may not need to "sink" them but unless China wants to pay the price of keeping those islands operational in an actual war, US can achieve what they claim.

The devil is always in the details, pray tell just exactly how it won’t be hard for the US to take those islands from China? And I must question how you think China won’t be willing to pay to defend those islands and America will be willing to pay to take them?

It's simply the reaction from China they will have to deal with. Their bases are also destroyable unless they want to send everything in to defend them. Respective ranges are scaled according to each military's overall abilities so such an exchange will be quite even.

The whole point of the SCS scenario is to be mostly self contained and not easily spill across to other regions.

Besides with enough tankers, USAF can get involved as well.

Not effectively, since it will tie up vast tanker resources, and the USAF pilots are either going to be dog tired by the time they get into the AO, or they are going to be jacked up to the eyeballs on combat stims. Not a good combo either way.

Throw in J20s going after tankers, AWACS and fighters in transit and their contributions would be highly ineffective.

China claims sovereignty over those man made islands so an attack on them could be used to justify an attack on US bases and her carrier groups.

Attack on US bases not so much, but mainly to limit escalation so this skirmish doesn’t turn into WWIII, but all US ships and aircraft in the SCS will be fair game in the event of any overt US miliary action against Chinese bases in the SCS.

This won’t be like Syria where the US can drop bombs and fire missiles and expect zero consequence.

Those islands are big and well defended enough that China can afford to let the US throw the first punch. But as soon as they do, the gloves will come of.

If a CSG is close enough to launch weapons at those islands, then assets based on those islands and PLAN warships in support will also be within range to strike right back at those carriers.

In a war of attrition between islands and carriers, the islands win by default.

It doesn’t matter that the carriers are mobile. For them to come within range to hit those islands would mean they also bring themselves within range of assets that could be deployed to those islands first.

J11/16s and JH7s far outrange the superbug, not to mention Chinese AShBMs that could also be forward deployed to those islands are fairly short notice.

The only ‘safe’ strike option would be massed cruise missile attacks by SSGNs. But cruise missiles are not magical. With Chinese air and AA defences intact, getting early warning and targeting data from airborne fighters and AWACS, and with those missiles coming over open water with no terrain to hide behind.

That’s as perfect a scenario as you could get to counter and shoot down incoming cruise missiles.

With naval assets ready and able to also lend their firepower, and the success rate of the cruise missile attacks are going to be minimal.

Any damage caused by the few that slip through would also be minimal and quickly repaired/replaced.

The same could not be said of the other side, as no warship, not even a supercarrier, can easily take hits form full blooded AShMs and just shrug those off.

If they genuinely are convinced that those assets are protected from any Chinese efforts at destroying them, they will up the ante and direct far more serious threats and follow through. At this point, they've been treading lightly. Contrast this with the insane rhetoric against north korea with "fire and fury" statements and direct threats of war despite NK's ability to totally take out South Korea and a chunk of Japan. US caution re SCS should maybe indicate they are not anywhere near confident in taking on China using its military. At least the price to pay is just not worth some waters and islands they have zero claim in anyway.

Exactly, there are no viable military options for the US in the SCS.

Sure, if the US brought all 10 of its operational carriers and all their warships and the entire marine corps, they could probably take those islands eventually. But there won’t be much of an USN or marine corps left afterwards.

There won’t be much of a PLAN left either at that point, but that would be a good trade for China.

And for the US to try to occupy those islands would be to invite disaster as logistics burden would almost certainly be too great for the much reduced USN. So even if they could take them, they won’t be able to keep them. Which makes the costs all the more unjustifiable.

 

[Jura The idiot]

.

Deino

I think you need to look here as soon as you can; saw 'millions of corpses' seconds ago

 

[advill]

Wise words to consider by all Military Strategists are by Chinese Sage Tao Te Ching "Do not conquer the world with force, for force only causes resistance"...... happened in WW II in Europe & Asia. Do we want a repeat in this day and age?

 

[kwaigonegin]

Did your dad teach you how to bullshit off topic too? Insult people while pretending to respect them? LOL

Respect is earned and your constant pretending to know things that you don't has not earned mine nor that of many people on this forum. Honor? I doubt that a person who proclaims himself to be the Air Force Brat without ever serving in the Air Force even knows the definition of honor.

As as FYI: the nomenclature of AF brat or Army brat etc by definition means he is the child of an AF personnel. It doesn't mean they themselves are necessarily in the service. There's nothing wrong with his handle and to question or equate that to honor is just silly.

 

[ougoah]

The devil is always in the details, pray tell just exactly how it won’t be hard for the US to take those islands from China? And I must question how you think China won’t be willing to pay to defend those islands and America will be willing to pay to take them?



The whole point of the SCS scenario is to be mostly self contained and not easily spill across to other regions.



Not effectively, since it will tie up vast tanker resources, and the USAF pilots are either going to be dog tired by the time they get into the AO, or they are going to be jacked up to the eyeballs on combat stims. Not a good combo either way.

Throw in J20s going after tankers, AWACS and fighters in transit and their contributions would be highly ineffective.



Attack on US bases not so much, but mainly to limit escalation so this skirmish doesn’t turn into WWIII, but all US ships and aircraft in the SCS will be fair game in the event of any overt US miliary action against Chinese bases in the SCS.

This won’t be like Syria where the US can drop bombs and fire missiles and expect zero consequence.

Those islands are big and well defended enough that China can afford to let the US throw the first punch. But as soon as they do, the gloves will come of.

If a CSG is close enough to launch weapons at those islands, then assets based on those islands and PLAN warships in support will also be within range to strike right back at those carriers.

In a war of attrition between islands and carriers, the islands win by default.

It doesn’t matter that the carriers are mobile. For them to come within range to hit those islands would mean they also bring themselves within range of assets that could be deployed to those islands first.

J11/16s and JH7s far outrange the superbug, not to mention Chinese AShBMs that could also be forward deployed to those islands are fairly short notice.

The only ‘safe’ strike option would be massed cruise missile attacks by SSGNs. But cruise missiles are not magical. With Chinese air and AA defences intact, getting early warning and targeting data from airborne fighters and AWACS, and with those missiles coming over open water with no terrain to hide behind.

That’s as perfect a scenario as you could get to counter and shoot down incoming cruise missiles.

With naval assets ready and able to also lend their firepower, and the success rate of the cruise missile attacks are going to be minimal.

Any damage caused by the few that slip through would also be minimal and quickly repaired/replaced.

The same could not be said of the other side, as no warship, not even a supercarrier, can easily take hits form full blooded AShMs and just shrug those off.



Exactly, there are no viable military options for the US in the SCS.

Sure, if the US brought all 10 of its operational carriers and all their warships and the entire marine corps, they could probably take those islands eventually. But there won’t be much of an USN or marine corps left afterwards.

There won’t be much of a PLAN left either at that point, but that would be a good trade for China.

And for the US to try to occupy those islands would be to invite disaster as logistics burden would almost certainly be too great for the much reduced USN. So even if they could take them, they won’t be able to keep them. Which makes the costs all the more unjustifiable.

Well perhaps in a simple scenario where they launch hundreds of cruise missiles and support that strike with B-2s. I doubt HQ-9s and whatever interceptors are available on the islands would suffice if the attack were to come without warning. If China has enough time to prepare, PLAN will have to meet USN and there would still be enough cruise missiles coming from the US side to guarantee their objective while both navies are engaged with each other? Then again I literally have no idea how it would be done and how China would respond. My comment was just in objection to what I thought was a claim that US could not actually destroy those islands. The real issue isn't whether or not they can, rather whether or not both sides will allow it to escalate.

 

[ougoah]

Wise words to consider by all Military Strategists are by Chinese Sage Tao Te Ching "Do not conquer the world with force, for force only causes resistance"...... happened in WW II in Europe & Asia. Do we want a repeat in this day and age?

That's from 老子? The literature is Dao Te Ching or path and virtues I think based off my limited Mandarin. In any case the person was not a military strategist as far as i'm aware and China is not using force to conquer the world nor is it conquering the world at the moment. Not by way of invading nations using the PLA at least. So not applicable to this thread. Good advice for others though. They'll end up like the Nazis and the Japanese after WW2.

 

[solarz]

That's from 老子? The literature is Dao Te Ching or path and virtues I think based off my limited Mandarin. In any case the person was not a military strategist as far as i'm aware and China is not using force to conquer the world nor is it conquering the world at the moment. Not by way of invading nations using the PLA at least. So not applicable to this thread. Good advice for others though. They'll end up like the Nazis and the Japanese after WW2.

Sun Tzu said something similar: "the greatest victory is one achieved without battle".

 

[plawolf]

Well perhaps in a simple scenario where they launch hundreds of cruise missiles and support that strike with B-2s. I doubt HQ-9s and whatever interceptors are available on the islands would suffice if the attack were to come without warning. If China has enough time to prepare, PLAN will have to meet USN and there would still be enough cruise missiles coming from the US side to guarantee their objective while both navies are engaged with each other? Then again I literally have no idea how it would be done and how China would respond. My comment was just in objection to what I thought was a claim that US could not actually destroy those islands. The real issue isn't whether or not they can, rather whether or not both sides will allow it to escalate.

Well if the US wanted to do a modern re-enactment of pearl harbour, and launched a massive cruise missile attack out of the blue, it might overwhelm the forward deployed defences with hundreds of cruise missiles per island.

Then what?

With modern battlefield repair techniques and the amount of construction equipment and material they have on those islands already, the airfields could be put back into operational use within a matter of hours.

With CAP coming in initially from Hainan, and then supplemented by carrier fighters, more HQ9s and other air defence and anti ship missiles could be air lifted in, again within hours, to bring the island defences up to a far higher level than before.

Once the PLAN fleet arrives en mass, with more land based defensive and offensive missile systems on ships, and PLAAF fighter and bomber regiments also forward deploy, those islands will become impenetrable no matter how many cruise missiles you fire at them.

So what would such a dastardly sneak attack actually achieve for America?

Short of launching an invasion of those islands (a non starter not even worth discussing because of how stupid an idea that would be for the Americans), any damage they cause will be rapidly repaired and even more defences added to those islands in their place.

As for the PLAN fleet, there is zero need for them to sally forth to try and fight the USN out in the SCS or Pacific.

The bulk of their number will stay close to the islands so that both can mutually support each other’s defences, with the rest acting as convoy protection to keep the supply lines open.

China is happy with the status quo. It is the USN that needs to come to them if they want to hit those islands.

With CAP, AWACS, long, medium and short ranged land based SAMs, AAA and CIWS as well as all the missile defences of the PLAN fleet, even hundreds of cruise missiles would not see many get through.

The USN will run out of cruise missiles long before the Chinese, who have a much shorter supply line and could rearm much quicker.

Let’s not forget that the Chinese are not going to just sit back and play defence. They have cruise and ballistic missiles of their own that they can shoot right back to the USN fleet.

The Chinese islands can take hundreds or even thousands of missile strikes. Could the USN?

That’s what makes them such a game changer.

They are the ultimate in attritional warfare, even if the USN can get 10 missiles through to hit those islands for every one the PLA managers to get through the USN defences, the USN will be entirely sunk while those islands would still be there, and the damage could be repaired within pretty short order.

With those islands to hide behind, the PLAN would be near on untouchable, and would certainly take far fewer losses than the USN.

This is the very definition of an unwinnable scenario for the USN, which is why they are getting so distressed about the existence of those islands.

The only way the US could ‘destroy’ those islands is with strategic megaton yield nukes. Now let’s not even get started on how insane that would be.