China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 9:27 PM

Today at 5:05 PM
now
China lodges representations with U.S. over destroyer's trespass on territorial waters
Xinhua| 2017-10-11 19:07:57

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and USNI News
China Chides U.S. Over Latest South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Operation

Beijing officials issued a public complaint on Wednesday over a U.S. freedom of navigation operation in which a U.S. destroyer challenged excessive Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The transit of USS Chafee (DDG-90) violated Chinese territorial sovereignty by entering a claimed territorial sea without prior notification, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Hua Chunying said during a press briefing.

“On Oct. 10, the missile destroyer USS Chafee entered China’s territorial sea off the Xisha [Paracel] Islands to carry out a so-called ‘freedom of navigation’ operation without China’s approval. The Chinese side immediately sent naval ships and fighter planes to identify and verify the U.S. warship according to law and warn and expel it,” she said.
“The relevant behavior of the U.S. warship has violated the Chinese law and relevant international law, severely undermined China’s sovereignty and security interests, put in jeopardy the life safety of the frontline personnel from both sides. China is firmly opposed to this and has lodged serious representation with the U.S. side.”

Two U.S. officials confirmed the basic details of the operation and said the interaction between the People’s Liberation Army forces during the operation were “safe and professional.” The destroyer did not come within internationally recognized 12 nautical mile territorial sea of any islands in the Paracel chain but did cross a disputed Chinese territorial line around the entire island chain. The strait baseline around the island chain has been claimed by China since the 1990s and Beijing requires warships to ask permission before operating in the chain, a stance that doesn’t line up with international maritime law.

The freedom of navigation operation

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and is the latest under a new schedule the Office of the Secretary of Defense and U.S. Pacific Command gave to the Trump White House earlier this year.

A Pentagon spokesman told USNI News on Wednesday that the Department of Defense would not discuss freedom of navigation operations ahead of the release of an annual report of the all of the operations around the world.

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with pressure from the Senate – specifically from Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

source:

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[Hendrik_2000]

In contrast to their maritime border the land border between Vietnam and China has been delineated long time ago. Allowing for peaceful interaction between people at the border. More and more Vietnamese are working in China due to shortage of worker It is win win arrangement and spread the prosperity and understanding between 2 close people
More work need to be done to improve the visa validity as s now they need to renew every month

Vietnamese workers ease labor shortage in Guangxi
By Shan Jie Source:Global Times Published: 2017/10/12 21:03:39

Carts carrying imported good from Vietnam enter Lihuokou Port of Fangchenggang, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on September 28. Photo: IC

The border areas in South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region have become more open as growing numbers of Vietnamese cross the border to work and trade.

The Vietnamese workers are welcomed by local Chinese residents as they have made up the shortage of laborers and work for lower salaries.

"The exchange in laborers not only strengthens the communication between border residents in China and Vietnam, but can also enhances the friendship between the two countries," Gu Xiaosong, an expert on Southeast Asian Studies at the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Daily exodus

Every morning in Dongxing, a border city in southern Guangxi, Vietnamese laborers pour into China through the border gate to begin their daily work.

According to the immigration inspection station at Dongxing, 25,000 people cross the Sino-Vietnamese border through the Dongxing port daily, including around 10,000 migrant workers from Vietnam, The Beijing News reported.

China's Dongxing and Vietnam's Mong Cai are a pair of small cities separated by a border river, so it is very convenient for the residents to cross the border for work and trade, Gu said, noting that the similar language and lifestyle of people in the two cities have made the exchange much easier.

Nowadays, it takes a person just five to 10 seconds to cross the border using self-service clearance by scanning the barcode on the certificate for nearby residents, said The Beijing News.

Thanks to the openness of the border, Vietnamese products including seafood, fruit and medicine can be bought in Dongxing.

Xiaofeng, a Vietnamese salesgirl in Dongxing, told The Beijing Times that Chinese bosses prefer Vietnamese employees, and Chinese tourists love to chat with them.

Now, Xiaofeng can earn even more than a university graduate student in Vietnam. "I can speak fluent Chinese, but other people who cannot could only do hard labor," she said.

At 9 pm, the Vietnamese workers, carrying bags filled with Chinese products, go back to their country.

In Pingxiang, another small border city in Guangxi, 270 kilometers away from Dongxing, more than 1,000 Vietnamese work and live in local furniture factories and fruit markets.

"The Vietnamese workers are very welcome in the China side, as we lack laborers - hardly any Chinese workers come to work in the border areas, as they prefer economically advanced regions such as Guangdong Province," a Pingxiang resident, surnamed Peng who trades red sandalwood furniture between China and Vietnam, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Most of them can communicate in simple Chinese, and there is always a worker who can speak Chinese to lead the others, Peng said.

According to Peng, an experienced carpenter can earn as much as 9,000 yuan a month, and a beginner around 2,000 yuan, which is still much better than what they can get in Vietnam.

"However, most Vietnamese workers are not as educated, skilled or hardworking as the Chinese, so the salaries are slightly lower than for Chinese carpenters," Peng said.

Everybody wins

"Vietnamese coming across the border to work in China is a win-win," Gu said.

"The Vietnamese workers earn more in China, which can improve their living standards," Gu said, adding that these people make up the vacancies left by Chinese border residents who have gone to seek their fortune in more advanced areas such as the Pearl River Delta.

Moreover, local people from China and Vietnam, and even the two countries, can enhance communication and friendship from rising exchanges, he noted.

"Guangxi people are not against foreigners, so they will not discriminate against the Vietnamese workers," Zhong Jing, a Guangxi resident in the capital city Nanning, told the Global Times.

However, the visas issued to Vietnamese workers only lasts one month, so they have to go back to reapply every month and pay the agencies around 600 yuan each time, according to Peng. "We hope the visa policy can be eased for Vietnamese workers so that they can work in the factories more regularly," Peng said.

Meanwhile, police in Dongxing also vowed to crack down on s=muggling at the port to better safeguard cross-border trade, the local procuratorate reported in September.
Newspaper headline: Friends at the border

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The recent island reclamation look more and more like setting up the bastion strategy for Submarine to roam and protected by fighter unit from the island
China’s South Sea Fleet gets new unit as military looks to boost its presence in disputed waters

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Submarine rescue unit established to support broader range of operations as Beijing seeks to enhance its fighting capabilities

PUBLISHED : Saturday, 21 October, 2017, 9:03pm
UPDATED : Sunday, 22 October, 2017, 9:10am

The Chinese South Sea Fleet has set up a new marine rescue squadron as part of moves by the People’s Liberation Army to step up its battle readiness and deploy more submarines to the region.

The new unit will enhance the navy’s capacity to conduct missions further afield, military observers said.

The unit was set up during the “latest round of military reform”, which was announced by the unit political commissar during a session devoted to studying the political report delivered by President Xi Jinping at the Communist Party congress on Wednesday.

“The army has to be prepared for battle,” Ke Hehai was quoted as saying by the PLA Daily on Thursday.

In his speech Xi had pledged to transform the PLA into a world-class fighting force by 2050.

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The North Sea Fleet established a marine rescue squadron in 2011, which is designed to minimise losses in the event of submarine accidents.

Having a similar unit in the South China Sea is a signal of the fleet’s enhanced status.

The South Sea Fleet’s area of responsibilities include the northern regions of the Taiwan Strait and southern areas from James Shoal, including the Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank and the disputed Spratly Islands.

Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military affairs commentator, said the fleet had an increasing need for a rescue unit as it was carrying out more missions.

“It is a sign that the fleet is getting itself more ready for battle,” Ni said. “When the army is stressing more on combat readiness, how can a navy fleet not be equipped with a rescue unit? Rescue squadrons are crucial in war.”

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The South Sea Fleet plays a key role in asserting China’s territorial claim over the disputed waters, where a number of Southeast Asian nations and Taiwan also claim sovereignty.

China has deployed most of its advanced nuclear submarines in the South China Sea, according to satellite images from overseas think tanks.

But the increasing number of submarines in the area raises the risk of accidents or of being overwhelmed by powerful underwater eddies.

In 2014, a new diesel-powered submarine referred to as “No 372” suffered a near-fatal malfunction

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.

A sudden fall in water density and a subsequent change in water pressure caused a number of equipment failures including the bursting of a key pipe.

This led to flooding that threatened to put the engine room out of action.

After three minutes of desperate effort, which included the sealing of all flooded chambers, the submarine was able to make it back to the surface.

“When accidents happen, [submarines] cannot rely on the rescue unit of the North Sea Fleet,” Collin Koh, a maritime security expert at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said.

“Many submarines in the region are coming into service for regional navies. It triggers the risk of sea traffic and accidents.”

Koh also said that in future the Chinese navy would expand its range of operations and would need to enhance its rescue capabilities accordingly.

 

[Totoro]

A continuation of discussion from J20 thread.

Isn't China inducting about 100 new aircraft every year anyway?

The last time I looked, that was the total comprised of J-10, J-11/J-16/J-15, JH-7, H-6

That was some years ago, as JH7 hasn't been in production for some 5 years now. J11, as well, either ended production completely or had a 3 year long pause, with possible one regiment worth of new planes recently (but not confirmed). J16 has had a slow start and is ramping up to one regiment per year only now (perhaps that's why the lone additional J11 regiment worth of planes was added? if it WAS added) and J15 has been produced at a slow pace, as there aren't enough carriers to go around yet.

Right now, we're looking at 80 something planes per year.

The amount of F-35 deployed near East Asia can't be more than 500. That is all China need to counter. The limitation is the size of the military base.

If a real war starts, US (as any country, really) would do ANYTHING in its power to try and overwhelm the enemy. That means it would try and get as many allies on its side and have their soil used for basing US forces. At very least, we're looking at whole of Japan being completely on US' side. Japanese forces are a certain addition, but much more important to US is ability to use Japanese bases AND commercial/civilian airports to base their forces. Since we're talking about 6-12 month long preparations for an offensive, even building additional bases is quite likely.

And fighting in such a war, against such opponent, US is not going to hold its punches nor keep half of its forces abroad without a good reason. It will be placing as many planes as it can in vicinity of China so it can strike at it. It may not be 90%, but it may be close. It is only if another war someplace else in the world broke out - only then we could talk about US splitting its forces or keeping half of its forces away. And if we're talking about some major crisis such as Russia occupying its neighbours - then we're already talking about a world war where the entire West needs to be fought, not just US.

There are more than enough bases/potential bases in Japan for that. And that's just with Japan. What if US manages to get more countries to ally against China?

(Taiwan and S. Korea are actually not guaranteed to ally with US but may remain neutral, depending on the situation. As both potentially have far more to lose than gain by joining such a war.)

 

[Hendrik_2000]

And most of those bases are unhardened and there are too few of those bases . Easy target for the many short range rocket and follow on air attack. On the other hand Chinese regiment are spread over larger number of bases and typical 1 airfield only housed 1 regiment and 44 out of 60 bases are hardened.

Another thing China want follow the script in Iraq where Sadam didn't do anything while the west build up forces. So the idea that the west can built their forces unhindered and unmolested is not logical. In the meantime China is preparing for such contingency.Here is Henri K take on preparation for SCs contingency

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The command of the Southern theater of operations, of the Chinese army, gathered a few days ago its air and naval forces in a confrontational exercise, which took place in an undisclosed area in the South China Sea.

If it is not news that Chinese troops are training in the face of specialized OPFOR ( Opposing Force ) units, which simulate the tactics of armed forces of potential enemies, one of the points to highlight of this joint exercise aero -Naval is the sudden presence of "third party forces", a role played by the latest generation of Chinese fighters.

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The H-6U refueller to refuel the J-10C

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The J-10C multi-role fighter playing the forces of others in the exercise

Few details have been revealed about this exercise, but we do know that the Chinese army has mobilized many types of aircraft, ground-based air defense units and surface ships, and that maneuvers lasted several days.

The press release discusses the deployment of the electronic warfare planes that created an "electromagnetic security corridor" before fighter bombers, escorted by fighter planes, took off under the coordination of the AWACS to confront the OPFOR units.

The warships and radar stations on the islets in the South China Sea also shared data, via the trans-armored data link, with the air forces on both sides, between the "Red Army" representing Chinese army and OPFOR units for "enemies".

Several J-10Cs , the latest-generation multi-role variant of the J-10 family, then entered the airspace as "third-party forces" and attempted to confuse the "Red Army" aircraft and interfere with it. the maneuvers of the latter.

Faced with this sudden intervention of external forces, the command of the "Red Army" triggered the "pre-defined" plan to contain and expel these "disrupters", according to the text.

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If the continuation of the exercise has only few surprises and resulted in a general assault against a "major target" surface OPFOR side, the introduction of "third" units in this major exercise, which seems to simulate a conflict between the Chinese army and the forces of a neighboring country in the South China Sea, is quite revealing.

On the one hand, it shows that the Chinese army has no illusions about the non-intervention of the foreign armed forces during a military conflict in the region, whatever the country or countries in front and despite the means Anti-Access / Area-Denial (A2 / AD) developed and deployed progressively for two decades.

But on the other hand, the scenario played here in particular by the Chinese army seems to indicate that, according to their estimation, the intervention of the forces of third will nevertheless be of weak intensity, to see simply "of posture".

Does this represent the real estimate of the Chinese army, or is it also preparing for the scenario of a more muscular escalation, which could engage it on a war of two fronts simultaneously?

If the answer to this question may seem obvious, we can also ask the question about when this "worst scenario" will be on stage. And if Scarborough's Reef "programmed" backfilling (黄岩 岛) will be the triggering event?

Henri K

 

[solarz]

If the continuation of the exercise has only few surprises and resulted in a general assault against a "major target" surface OPFOR side, the introduction of "third" units in this major exercise, which seems to simulate a conflict between the Chinese army and the forces of a neighboring country in the South China Sea, is quite revealing.

On the one hand, it shows that the Chinese army has no illusions about the non-intervention of the foreign armed forces during a military conflict in the region, whatever the country or countries in front and despite the means Anti-Access / Area-Denial (A2 / AD) developed and deployed progressively for two decades.

But on the other hand, the scenario played here in particular by the Chinese army seems to indicate that, according to their estimation, the intervention of the forces of third will nevertheless be of weak intensity, to see simply "of posture".

Does this represent the real estimate of the Chinese army, or is it also preparing for the scenario of a more muscular escalation, which could engage it on a war of two fronts simultaneously?

If the answer to this question may seem obvious, we can also ask the question about when this "worst scenario" will be on stage. And if Scarborough's Reef "programmed" backfilling (黄岩 岛) will be the triggering event?

Henri K

The SCS islands are China's trip wires. They serve multiple strategic purposes, from resource control to safeguarding sea lanes. One of those purposes is to serve as a forward operating base when the need arises.

The islands cannot withstand sustained attacks from a peer adversary, but that is part of the calculation. China's actual naval base is in Hainan, and forcing an enemy to attack the SCS islands first gives time for the mainland forces to ready a response. If China is facing a peer adversary, those islands will be acceptable sacrifices.

 

[AndrewS]

The SCS islands are China's trip wires. They serve multiple strategic purposes, from resource control to safeguarding sea lanes. One of those purposes is to serve as a forward operating base when the need arises.

The islands cannot withstand sustained attacks from a peer adversary, but that is part of the calculation. China's actual naval base is in Hainan, and forcing an enemy to attack the SCS islands first gives time for the mainland forces to ready a response. If China is facing a peer adversary, those islands will be acceptable sacrifices.

And don't forget that the SCS bases will be trying to keep the sea lanes open versus a peer competitor trying to shut down those sea lanes. And note that the littoral nations in the SCS are really dependent on seaborne trade, and also count China as their largest trading partner.

So they presumably will lean towards China in a hypothetical US-China conflict.

Before the creation of the islands, they probably would have leaned towards the USA which would presumably have controlled the waters there.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Military spokesperson: Construction in South China Sea is legitimate
2017-10-26 19:27 GMT+8

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China's construction in the South China Sea is reasonable and legitimate, a military spokesperson said Thursday at a press conference.

Answering a reporter's question on the Chinese army’s military deployment in the South China Sea, Ren Guoqiang, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense stated: "For the so-called military deployment in the South China Sea, I would like to clarify that the construction on the South China Sea reefs is not the so-called expansion of military deployment. The current situation of the South China Sea is going well, and the parties should continue to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea."

This was the first press conference of Chinese Ministry of National Defense after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The whole army is fully implementing Xi Jinping's thought of building a strong military and transforming people’s armed forces into a world-class force.

"We will make it our mission to see that by 2035, the modernization of our national defense and our forces is basically completed; and that by the mid-21st century our people’s armed forces have been fully transformed into world-class forces," Xi said in the report delivered at the 19th CPC National Congress on October 18.

When it came to the question about the People's Liberation Army's (PLA)'s flight around Taiwan, the spokesperson responded, "Taiwan is part of China. We have the confidence, ability, method to maintain cross-strait reunification and the integrity of sovereignty, security and territory."

 

[plawolf]

The SCS islands are China's trip wires. They serve multiple strategic purposes, from resource control to safeguarding sea lanes. One of those purposes is to serve as a forward operating base when the need arises.

The islands cannot withstand sustained attacks from a peer adversary, but that is part of the calculation. China's actual naval base is in Hainan, and forcing an enemy to attack the SCS islands first gives time for the mainland forces to ready a response. If China is facing a peer adversary, those islands will be acceptable sacrifices.

Short of a Pearl Harbour like surprise attack, no one will be able to easily overwhelm those islands, because the PLA are not going to just sit back and do nothing while a hostile power builds up forces to attack them.

As with almost all wars, logistics is key, and here the Chinese enjoy overwhelming advantage because of geographic realities as the mainland is close enough to allow rapid resupply and can offer direct combat support with assets based on the mainland.

Even US FONOPs ships gets PLAN escorts in the SCS.

Any significant foreign military deployements into the region will see a mirror counter deployment by the PLA.

Anyone wanting to attack those islands will have a PLAN task force of similar size and capability to their expeditionary force deployed against them, not to mention PLAAF air components and PLA missile and rocket forces that would have also forward deployed to those island bases if tensions have really escalated that far.

Those islands have the scale to both easily accommodate significant quantities of layered defensive and offensive assets, as well as to be able to withstand massive saturation attacks and remain operationally relevant.

Each of those main islands can pretty much accommodate a superior air wing to the Liaoning in terms of both quantity and size of aircraft that can be deployed, and together with missile forces, would pretty much be on par to a Liaoning sized carrier strike group in terms of defensive and offensive capabilities.

Sure, they cannot move, but they cannot be sunk by a lucky missile or torpedo hit either, so it pretty much balance out. And they will have range superiority to attackers meaning anyone wanting to mount attacks against those islands would also bring their own ships to within air and missile range of forces based on those islands.

Backed up with 1-2 PLAN carriers and just the South Sea Fleet, and you have a fighting force that will pretty much require at least half the USN to be able to even consider attacking without inviting a total massacre.

In war, those islands are not throw away first day of war assets, but unsinkable carriers and missile pads that no enemy can realistically afford to ignore, and yet which will require massive amounts of planes, ships, missiles and troops at take out.

Even if a hostile force could eventually take them, it will incur them massive costs in terms of arms and lives expended.

Simply put, in war time, those islands would be meat grinders that the PLA will defend tooth and nail; and which will deplete hostile forces so much as to make a further attack on the mainland a near impossibility.

 

[solarz]

Simply put, in war time, those islands would be meat grinders that the PLA will defend tooth and nail; and which will deplete hostile forces so much as to make a further attack on the mainland a near impossibility.

Realistically speaking, the USN still enjoys overwhelming advantage against the Chinese Navy. Logistics wise, the US also enjoys the advantage of numerous bases in the region.

I believe the PLA understands this calculus, and the build up for the SCS islands is much like a pawn thrust in a game of chess. The pawn is easily taken, but the price of such a move may be quite steep.