China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AndrewS]

Trump’s Turn Toward China Curtails Navy Patrols in Disputed Zones

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Its weird this article has not been mentioned. Basically US Pacific Command (Admiral Harry B. Harris who was born in Japan) wants to keep doing the freedom of navigation thing, but look like either Trump or US military rejected this because they don't want to upset China while they are helping US with the fat Kim situation.

This is very interesting, such thing would never fly under Obama or Hillary.

Whats most important is that the SCS issue has been pushed way behind on US's list of priorities. Also by doing this, US indirectly acknowledge China's strength in Asia. I cannot believe China's predicament has been changed so dramatically in just a few years.

I guess when Trump said you will get sick of winning... he was talking about winning for China.

I'm not surprised that the USA is gradually folding over the SCS, as the hand is heavily stacked against the USA.

I already outlined how China over-matches everyone else in almost every scenario, barring a full-scale conflict with the USA.

For example, civilian usage of the SCS with fishing boats, cargo ships, oil platforms, exploration vessels, archaeology/scientific expeditions etc.

Then there is the overmatch with the Chinese maritime fishing militia, backed up by the overmatch in Coast Guard ships.

Then we have the Chinese military, which overmatches everyone else in the SCS, barring full-scale war with the USA. And everyone agrees that the SCS islands are not worth a war.

Then there is the broader economic overmatch with China being at the centre of the Asia trading network and investment network. Note that China is already the world's largest trading nation and net overseas investor.

And as I mentioned previously, Hillary Clinton made a strategic mistake when she "refreshed her memory" and somehow became the Chinese government spokesperson who announced that China had made the SCS a core interest, and trapped the Chinese government into that policy.

See Geoff Dyer's comments in Contest of the Century

In summary, Hillary Clinton thought that China would have to fold and that the SCS nations would draw closer to the USA. However, she fundamentally underestimated China's resolve and also China's winning position in the SCS balance of power.

----
Recent FT Article on views in ASEAN

"Almost three-quarters of the respondents from government, business, academia, the media and civil society in the survey by Singapore’s Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute think-tank saw China as the most influential country or organisation in Southeast Asia now and during the next 10 years."

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[Hendrik_2000]

Another busy body peering at Yulin Naval base. What do you expect It is naval base after all and need to be defended

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Satellite images reveal Chinese expansion in South China Sea
By:

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May 8, 2017
TEL AVIV, Israel — Imagery captured Monday from an ImageSat International (ISI) Eros B satellite indicates Chinese preparations for new land-based missile installations on an increasingly strategic island base in the South China Sea.

The high-resolution imagery, shown here for the first time, reveals recent changes in the layout of the People’s Liberation Army’s Yulin Naval Base at the tip of Hainan Island in the disputed Scarborough Shoal. In less than two months, the PLA deployed multiple missile launchers on the western side of the base, deployments that ISI imagery analyst Amit Gur has concluded are anti-ship missiles.

“The direction in which the launchers are facing leads us to believe these are shore-to-ship missiles,” Gur told Defense News.

Photo Credit: ImageSat International

He said that similar systems had shown up in satellite data about two years ago, but had been removed in recent months to accommodate infrastructure upgrades at the site. ISI's imagery from March 15 shows an empty plateau, but by May 8 the firm’s Eros B captured a clear image of newly paved infrastructure and multiple launch sites.

“They must have concluded renovation work, as the systems are clearly visible,” Gur said. “We just don’t know if they are new systems, or a [redeployment] of the ones that were stored during the renovation.”

Perhaps even more interesting, according to ISI, is progress taking place on Yulin’s eastern side. “We’re seeing the building of infrastructure that wasn’t there before and what looks like preparations for shore-to-ship missiles, just like on the western side,” company spokesman Gil Or said.

Photo Credit: ImageSat International

Photo Credit: ImageSat International

Gur noted that expansion of the Yulin base fortifies Beijing’s strategic triangle of forward bases with which to quickly project its power well beyond neighboring Vietnam and the Philippines.

 

[Shaolian]

The high-resolution imagery, shown here for the first time, reveals recent changes in the layout of the People’s Liberation Army’s Yulin Naval Base at the tip of Hainan Island in the disputed Scarborough Shoal.

Whaaatt the Heck?!

Puts the North Korean propagandists to shame.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Whaaatt the Heck?!

Puts the North Korean propagandists to shame.

Good catch I don't even see it wow you are right !

 

[Equation]

I'm not surprised that the USA is gradually folding over the SCS, as the hand is heavily stacked against the USA.

I already outlined how China over-matches everyone else in almost every scenario, barring a full-scale conflict with the USA.

For example, civilian usage of the SCS with fishing boats, cargo ships, oil platforms, exploration vessels, archaeology/scientific expeditions etc.

Then there is the overmatch with the Chinese maritime fishing militia, backed up by the overmatch in Coast Guard ships.

Then we have the Chinese military, which overmatches everyone else in the SCS, barring full-scale war with the USA. And everyone agrees that the SCS islands are not worth a war.

Then there is the broader economic overmatch with China being at the centre of the Asia trading network and investment network. Note that China is already the world's largest trading nation and net overseas investor.

And as I mentioned previously, Hillary Clinton made a strategic mistake when she "refreshed her memory" and somehow became the Chinese government spokesperson who announced that China had made the SCS a core interest, and trapped the Chinese government into that policy.

See Geoff Dyer's comments in Contest of the Century

In summary, Hillary Clinton thought that China would have to fold and that the SCS nations would draw closer to the USA. However, she fundamentally underestimated China's resolve and also China's winning position in the SCS balance of power.

----
Recent FT Article on views in ASEAN

"Almost three-quarters of the respondents from government, business, academia, the media and civil society in the survey by Singapore’s Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute think-tank saw China as the most influential country or organisation in Southeast Asia now and during the next 10 years."

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And that is why Hillary is 0-2 when it comes to campaigning for the POTUS title.

 

[AndrewS]

And that is why Hillary is 0-2 when it comes to campaigning for the POTUS title.

The SCS didn't really factor in the US election.

At the end of the day, Hillary Clinton was seen as an unattractive ball-busting woman from an out-of-touch establishment who is crooked and a serial liar.

The Russians just helped this along.

 

[Richard Santos]

The SCS didn't really factor in the US election.

At the end of the day, Hillary Clinton was seen as an unattractive ball-busting woman from an out-of-touch establishment who is crooked and a serial liar.

The Russians just helped this along.

Would one want a gentle, kindly honest grandmother who is alway scrupulously honest as commander in chief?

 

[Blackstone]

Whaaatt the Heck?!

Puts the North Korean propagandists to shame.

I'm sure it's just a typo. No one, absolutely no one claims Hainan Dao is disputed territory, not even Western neocons and liberal internationalists. I could be persuaded they think it in their hearts, but so far none of them have utter the words in public.

 

[sanblvd]

I'm sure it's just a typo. No one, absolutely no one claims Hainan Dao is disputed territory, not even Western neocons and liberal internationalists. I could be persuaded they think it in their hearts, but so far none of them have utter the words in public.

They did confuse Spartly with Paracel, when China put HQ9 on Paracel it was headline news for the dispute with Philippine... and for their defense.... Hainan is not that far from Parcel lol.

 

[mr.bean]

The SCS didn't really factor in the US election.

At the end of the day, Hillary Clinton was seen as an unattractive ball-busting woman from an out-of-touch establishment who is crooked and a serial liar.

The Russians just helped this along.

Crooked Hillary will be back. She's too obsessed with power and losing at the final stretch to Donald Trump like this was devastating. She will run again. we haven't seen the last of Crooked Hillary yet.