China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blackstone]

US President-elect Donald Trump has posted a series of tweets criticising China for its monetary policy and its operations in the South China Sea.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Red Nobles in Beijing should take into account Trump is an amateur at foreign policy, and he's being pulled in different directions by China hawks on his team vs. his own instincts to make deals and not make troubles. My sense is Trump will at some point assert himself and Sino-American bilateral relations will end up closer to what Xi Jinping outlined as a 'new type of great power relations.'

The Chinese Civil War never ended, so people in Taiwan and on the Mainland are understandably intense; nationalism on both sides are very strong. Trump needs to educate himself quickly, so he could shape events instead of being dictated by them. He also need to realize the Sino-American relations is the most consequential bilateral relations in the world, and he could manage China as a competitor and not as an adversary. Not doing so isn't in long-term US interests.

 

[shen]

The Red Nobles in Beijing should take into account Trump is an amateur at foreign policy, and he's being pulled in different directions by China hawks on his team vs. his own instincts to make deals and not make troubles. My sense is Trump will at some point assert himself and Sino-American bilateral relations will end up closer to what Xi Jinping outlined as a 'new type of great power relations.'

The Chinese Civil War never ended, so people in Taiwan and on the Mainland are understandably intense; nationalism on both sides are very strong. Trump needs to educate himself quickly, so he could shape events instead of being dictated by them. He also need to realize the Sino-American relations is the most consequential bilateral relations in the world, and he could manage China as a competitor and not as an adversary. Not doing so isn't in long-term US interests.

Trump need to recognize that the "Red Nobles in Beijing" can't afford to even appear weak with regard to Taiwan due to domestic nationalist sentiment. Playing the Taiwan card will not lead to Chinese concession, only mutual suicide.

 

[Blackstone]

Trump need to recognize that the "Red Nobles in Beijing" can't afford to even appear weak with regard to Taiwan due to domestic nationalist sentiment. Playing the Taiwan card will not lead to Chinese concession, only mutual suicide.

That's why I said Trump is a foreign policy amateur, and he need to learn fast or be caught off guard by events not of his choosing or liking. He also need to be weary of the neocons and other China hawks in his Praetorian Guards, so they don't steer the ship of state in directions harmful to long-term US interests.

 

[joshuatree]

CCG rescued two Filipino fishermen in the vicinity of Scarborough. Good use of soft power.

BRP Tubbataha is one of the newly Japanese funded and built patrol boats. Not sure what tonnage but it appears smaller than CCG 3501.

 

[joshuatree]

 

[tidalwave]

The Red Nobles in Beijing should take into account Trump is an amateur at foreign policy, and he's being pulled in different directions by China hawks on his team vs. his own instincts to make deals and not make troubles. My sense is Trump will at some point assert himself and Sino-American bilateral relations will end up closer to what Xi Jinping outlined as a 'new type of great power relations.'

The Chinese Civil War never ended, so people in Taiwan and on the Mainland are understandably intense; nationalism on both sides are very strong. Trump needs to educate himself quickly, so he could shape events instead of being dictated by them. He also need to realize the Sino-American relations is the most consequential bilateral relations in the world, and he could manage China as a competitor and not as an adversary. Not doing so isn't in long-term US interests.

I don't think so, man. Someone advises Trump to act like that,
The phone call was planned ahead.
His advisor Peter Navarro, I read his pieces before and he wants to use the Taiwan Card to go against China. It's a blackmail card. Ultimately, they want to get concessions out of China.

It may appear like Trump fumbling on this but it's intentional.

 

[abc123]

Trump need to recognize that the "Red Nobles in Beijing" can't afford to even appear weak with regard to Taiwan due to domestic nationalist sentiment. Playing the Taiwan card will not lead to Chinese concession, only mutual suicide.

Fully agreed.

 

[abc123]

It is likely that Trump is laying the foundation for future provocations towards China. The Chinese response to this first provocation was sensible, and should be a model for future responses.

It is the interests of the American government and the governments of America's allies to force a confrontation with China whilst they are still in a position to prevail in such a confrontation. Conversely, it is in China's interest to avoid any such confrontation until such time as it can prevail, which is certainly not within the next decade. This may require accepting various humiliations in the interim. At the most extreme, a repeat of 1996 cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, Beijing should not lose sight of the bigger picture. Make no mistake, there are many within the American foreign policy and military establishments who are spoiling for a fight with China. Do not under any circumstances give it to them.

Agreed. From the Chinese POV, it seems as reasonable course of action.

 

[tidalwave]

It is likely that Trump is laying the foundation for future provocations towards China. The Chinese response to this first provocation was sensible, and should be a model for future responses.

It is the interests of the American government and the governments of America's allies to force a confrontation with China whilst they are still in a position to prevail in such a confrontation. Conversely, it is in China's interest to avoid any such confrontation until such time as it can prevail, which is certainly not within the next decade. This may require accepting various humiliations in the interim. At the most extreme, a repeat of 1996 cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, Beijing should not lose sight of the bigger picture. Make no mistake, there are many within the American foreign policy and military establishments who are spoiling for a fight with China. Do not under any circumstances give it to them.

no way, man. accepting humiliation? that's crazy talk.
China has an ace card.
That's North Korea. If US goes over the line, China can help NK to perfect its missile and nuke.
It doen't have to do much. All it needs to do to supply all the equipments NK needs.

Trump and advisors planning to cut China economically in size. You think they will give more time to China to develope?

This is Not the 1996!

 

[PanAsian]

This kind of calls are almost always prearranged, it does not mean much. The call itself lasted about only 10 minutes. The U.S. government also reiterated after the phone call that there was no change in the one-China policy. If Tsai attempted to drive a wedge into the China-U.S. relationship using this phone call, she probably failed.

Note that Trump also said something to the president of Pakistan that would surely make India unhappy on the surface. But it does not mean that there will be drastic changes in America's policies toward Pakistan and India.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Kissinger is merely prescribing what China is already doing. He also noted that such facilitating of flexibility only applies when Trump does not insist on acting according to his rhetoric, well duh.

Trump's style is to pump out egocentric-preach-to-his-audience cum blame-someone-else-flamebait usually incorporating misinformation with ulterior motives. This should be treated as both propaganda at face value and clues to figure out the real motives, and reacted to accordingly both while he is awaiting and after he actually assumes office.

He is a career advertiser used to the corresponding low expectation of truth in advertising, now that he won public office it is time to hold him to the higher expectation of truth to which even the most crooked career politician is held.