China's SCS Strategy Thread

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Whatever goals that the US wants to achieve with these FON operations -- I suppose the purposes are to impress and intimidate, the results are the opposite and counterproductive.

The targets to impress, primarily Philippines and Vietnam and other countries in the region, apparently are not convinced. Australia and Japan paid some lip services, but would not want to join the patrols.

The target to intimidate, obviously China, is far from being deterred. Instead, with every FON operation and passing day, China just seems to enhance her presence and tighten her grips in SCS. It used to be that if the USN did not announce it had made some FON operation in SCS, China wouldn't even know it - it didn't have the means or the need to know it. Now China has the means, and due to the US's high-profiled FON operations, it also has the need to follow and monitor the US ships as soon as they enter SCS. The latest FON operation, conducted by the USS Decatur, was closely followed and monitored by a 052B Destroyer (Guangzhou) and a 053III Frigate (Luoyang). The PLANAF have also recently deployed a regiment on the Yongxing Island in Parcel Islands.

The US can bring more ships to do FON, like a CVG occasionally, but then again, China appears to
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(the latter if true would likely to be put on hold now due to the recent Philippines' pivot to China policy). China has already built a carrier base in Hainan Island. So the question is how sustainable these FON operations would be for the US.

The key was Philippines. It appeared that the US was gradually getting back to have more permanent military bases in Philippines after the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed in 2014, which would make SCS patrols and FON operations much more regular and cost-effective.

I think the US will have to regroup and reexamine their pivot to Asia policy after the election. At a minimum, just relying on military means and shifting more and better weapons to the Asia Pacific would not likely to be very effective.
You make me curious... but not suprising :D

Yet for FON it is completely legal* and in more USA or Western are not sentenced by a court decision, La Haye july 2016 and for 2 things territoriality and fisheries law... no comments...!

Necessary answer to your comments about Western countries damage but necessary...and impress mainly in your dreams...

So they pass they pass it is but seems really much annoy you and some others...

*France my country i don' t have secret... and UK let's pass recently Kuznetsov in English channel RN monitor ofc as always but no scandal completely normal :cool:

Yongxing Island is Woody island for International readers.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
Attracting immigrants cannot possibly replace grooming talent at home, it's a stop gap measure that'll become increasingly ineffective as the two biggest reservoirs of scientific talent in the world, China and India, become wealthier themselves by the day.
It's better to have more options to choose from than less, and the US has more options. Immigration has been a key for US growth since Mayflower, and America is second to none in attracting and assimilating immigrants from all over the world. Therefore, more talent development and attraction options than any other rivals.

We agree that China and India have the largest reservoirs of science, technology, engineering, art... and on and on. The reason is both of them have about four times more people than the US.

Attracting immigrants can, however, continue to be effective at addressing demographic issues, though that carries problems on their own. Trump is just the start of it, and Europe is having its own taste. It'll worsen especially quickly if the immigrants become increasingly lower skilled as China and India get better at retaining top tier talent.
China and India might someday attract more talent than they lose, but that day is a long ways off.

The Trump blacks wan is an outlier and deserves its own thread.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
I read a few days ago that Philippines and China could not reach an agreement about allowing Philippine fishermen to return to Scarborough Shoal to fish. The biggest bone of contention was language used in the joint statement. Philippines side does not agree with the use of words "allow" or "permit" lest they have any implication of sovereignty by China; the Chinese side does not agree with any mention of the rulings from PCA. I was wondering how they would break the deadlock.

Well, it appears that Chinese pragmatism and vagueness are again at play now, from the news below. China effectively allows the Philippine fishermen to return, without either side having to make any official statements, at least for now. The implication I suppose is that this will stand as long as the two sides are on good terms and nobody tries to make a bigger deal out of it.
The calm wouldn't last, because China's so-called "pragmatism" does little to address the underlying problem in the SCS: Monroe Doctrine with Chinese characteristics. Until Beijing and Washington agree to some kind of leadership-sharing scheme, tensions will continue to build. As for Duterte, he may be happy to shelf the Arbitration Debate Club's opinion paper today, but that may change tomorrow. There's also the possibility Filipinos will elect another Aquino III in the next election. The bottom line is stability in the SCS is an illusion until the Beltway mandarins and the Zhongnanhai mandarins come to terms.
 

weig2000

Captain
The calm wouldn't last, because China's so-called "pragmatism" does little to address the underlying problem in the SCS: Monroe Doctrine with Chinese characteristics. Until Beijing and Washington agree to some kind of leadership-sharing scheme, tensions will continue to build. As for Duterte, he may be happy to shelf the Arbitration Debate Club's opinion paper today, but that may change tomorrow. There's also the possibility Filipinos will elect another Aquino III in the next election. The bottom line is stability in the SCS is an illusion until the Beltway mandarins and the Zhongnanhai mandarins come to terms.

I don't think China is counting that as a long-term solution, more like an interim one to stabilize and calm down the situation. More broadly, I don't think China expects Philippines will follow the current policy forever, after all it has been through this before.

The future of SCS depends on the rise of Chinese power, the power balance between China and the US, and how wisely China and the US play their diplomatic, political, economic, and security cards. Philippines's latest pivot, while Duterte's personal and political leaning definitely play a role, is fundamentally driven by the power dynamics in the region. The same can be said about some of the more recent developments in Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia when it comes to their respective interactions and relationship with China.

But yes, this is just another round in the battle for influence and primacy in SCS (and Asia Pacific to a larger extent). It's never going to be a straight line even if the trend line is unmistaken. In fact, the US has made some grounds in Korean Peninsula when South Korea agreed to the deployment of THAAD, thanks to the "cooperation" from little Kim.

I'm cautiously optimistic that China and the US will eventually settle on some agreement, explicit or implicit, based on their balance of power and interest, taking into account the cost-and-benefit calculation of co-existence vs conflict. China and the US are both fundamentally pragmatic people. It's a process and will take some time to get there. Meanwhile, it's very important to manage the process to avoid any serious conflicts.
 

weig2000

Captain
It appears that the US and certain sectors within the Philippines establishment are trying to take advantage of China's allowing Philippine fishermen to return to Scarborough Shoal for fishing, interpreting this as "China's withdrawal from the Scarborough Shoal," and "that would be in accordance with the July 12 arbitral decision." Indeed, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told The Associated Press that the Philippine air force plans to conduct aerial surveillance of the shoal off the northwestern Philippines as early as Saturday to check the situation.

Would be interesting to see how China would respond to these.

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October 29, 2016

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — The Philippines and the U.S. are verifying if Chinese coast guard ships left a disputed shoal after President Rodrigo Duterte reached out to Beijing, allowing Filipino fishermen back to the rich fishing area that China seized in 2012 as tensions spiked in the South China Sea.

Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the Philippine coast guard reported that Chinese ships have not been sighted at Scarborough Shoal in the last three days, but he added the report has to be validated. Lorenzana told The Associated Press that the Philippine air force plans to conduct aerial surveillance of the shoal off the northwestern Philippines as early as Saturday to check the situation.

China took effective control of the tiny, uninhabited shoal in 2012, after a tense standoff with Philippine vessels. Since then, Chinese coast guard ships have been driving Filipino fishermen away from the area, while farther south in the Spratly Islands, China went on to construct seven man-made islands despite protests from other claimants.

Deputy U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Beijing on Saturday that China's withdrawal from Scarborough Shoal, even if it were a product of bilateral talks with Duterte, "would be a positive development" welcomed by Washington.

He said it would be consistent with an international arbitration ruling in July that invalidated Beijing's sweeping territorial claims in the South China Sea. The ruling said that both Filipinos and Chinese can fish at the shoal, but China ignored it and its coast guard continued to block Filipino fishermen.

Blinken said that the U.S. would continue to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea that challenge Beijing's territorial claims at a time when countries in the region— including those that are not directly involved in the China-Philippine dispute — have signaled "increased demand" for American presence.

Duterte has attempted to repair relations with China, but he has also ruffled feathers with the Philippines' longtime ally by threatening to scale down military ties with the U.S. and hurling insults at President Barack Obama.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. was still assessing reports that Chinese boats have left Scarborough Shoal and Filipinos have resumed fishing there.

"We hope it is certainly not a temporary measure. We would like it to be a sign that China and the Philippines are moving toward an agreement on fishing access at Scarborough that would be in accordance with the July 12 arbitral decision," Toner told reporters in Washington.

After visiting Beijing last week, Duterte said without elaborating that Filipino fishermen "may" be able to return to Scarborough after he discussed the territorial rift with Chinese leaders.

He said he insisted in his talks with Chinese leaders that the shoal belonged to the Philippines, but that the Chinese also asserted their claim of ownership.

"If the Chinese ships have left, then it means our fishermen can resume fishing in the area. We welcome this development," Lorenzana said. "Our fishermen have not been fishing there since 2012. This will return to them their traditional source of livelihood."

____

Shih reported from Beijing. Associated Press writer Matthew Pennington in Washington contributed to this report.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
It's better to have more options to choose from than less, and the US has more options. Immigration has been a key for US growth since Mayflower, and America is second to none in attracting and assimilating immigrants from all over the world. Therefore, more talent development and attraction options than any other rivals.

We agree that China and India have the largest reservoirs of science, technology, engineering, art... and on and on. The reason is both of them have about four times more people than the US.


China and India might someday attract more talent than they lose, but that day is a long ways off.

The Trump blacks wan is an outlier and deserves its own thread.

Yeah but those stubborn and stupid Good Ole Boy institutions will never yield their power and prestige that they felt entitled to any other immigrant groups. That's why the US is becoming the gold standard for many established Chinese researchers and scientists leaving and coming back to the PRC because of the opportunities for advancements are more available to them, as well as Indians going back to India. With the Trump voters and crowds yelling and screaming racism this and that I doubt any immigrant group will feel welcome enough to stay in the USA to keep the economic ship upright.
 

advill

Junior Member
Interesting to observe the news unfolding on the US Elections. Shocking to observe what is happening with damaging accusations & counter-accusations. This unfortunately is DEMOCRAZY (democracy gone crazy). With all the serious distractions in the US that are expected to continue, the South China Sea issues could possibly be on the US back burner. China has the time to show it is peaceful & friendly, especially to most countries in the region. "What succeeded yesterday, may go wrong today. What went wrong today, will perhaps go well tomorrow. Success comes from acting at the right moment, but there are no rules that allow one to determine that moment". Lieh Tzu.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Interesting to observe the news unfolding on the US Elections. Shocking to observe what is happening with damaging accusations & counter-accusations. This unfortunately is DEMOCRAZY (democracy gone crazy). With all the serious distractions in the US that are expected to continue, the South China Sea issues could possibly be on the US back burner. China has the time to show it is peaceful & friendly, especially to most countries in the region. "What succeeded yesterday, may go wrong today. What went wrong today, will perhaps go well tomorrow. Success comes from acting at the right moment, but there are no rules that allow one to determine that moment". Lieh Tzu.

That is regrettable in this day of globalization, Instead of looking forward, some people just can't help themselves to appeal to the worst human instinct of fear, primordial instinct and xenophobic.

Weird thing is I can understand if it happened in developed world like Africa or Some Moslem country like Indonesia . But US is the most technologically advance country in world

While in the other side of the world China that used to be synonym with insular thinking is now unabashedly embraced the globalization seen in this excellent video"One belt one road common prosperity"
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Equation

Lieutenant General
That is regrettable in this day of globalization, Instead of looking forward, some people just can't help themselves to appeal to the worst human instinct of fear, primordial instinct and xenophobic.

Weird thing is I can understand if it happened in developed world like Africa or Some Moslem country like Indonesia . But US is the most technologically advance country in world

While in the other side of the world China that used to be synonym with insular thinking is now unabashedly embraced the globalization seen in this excellent video"One belt one road common prosperity"
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The US ONLY became technologically advanced due to immigrants coming here to do the grunt work of all the major scientific fields, engineers, medicine, and high tech, while the 'native born' became more insular within their religious institutions OR being dumb down by social media and reality t.v.,therefore NOT adding anything to the country prosperity. Plus with the continuing xenophobic feelings spreading across the minds of the 'native birthers' that will likely to turned off many loyalist immigrants away from the US and its technologic status will go down. NO way are these 'native birthers' are capable enough to replace the one's that had already left.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Western pundits often cite the irregularity of many Asian countries depending on China for their economy while America for defence as some evidence of Western superiority and/or China-threat proof.

But the reality is simply that Chinese wealth and power is only a recent development. It wasn't that long ago when America and the EU were the biggest trading partners for all of Asia.

It takes time for balance of power to shift, and for that shift to become so large as to be undeniable.

What we are seeing now is the start of the natural rebalancing of loyalties and alligencies by the small Asian powers to re-align with the world pecking order as if is now; rather than what it was.

In the years and decades ahead, as the balance of power between China and the US shift more drastically and undeniably in China's favour, expect more and more Asian countries to ditch American 'protection' in favour of Chinese favour.
 
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