We can say it with certainty that China would use the true and tried doctrine of Peoples' War in any conflict in SCS, with regular military units mixed with closer to a million fishing boats and her formidable merchant marine. Instead of fish and commercial cargo, they can carry something else. South China Sea's 3.7 KM*2 expense is her another strategic depth where she can duck and weave and play the game to her advantage. The concepts of land warfare can play out their part when it fits. Of course China still is short legged and short armed but she knows the addresses of all staging points of others as the others know the addresses of those small islands. So we can clearly foresee the red lines for each side if conflicts of any significant proportions shape up.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
We can say it with certainty that China would use the true and tried doctrine of Peoples' War in any conflict in SCS, with regular military units mixed with closer to a million fishing boats and her formidable merchant marine. Instead of fish and commercial cargo, they can carry something else. South China Sea's 3.7 KM*2 expense is her another strategic depth where she can duck and weave and play the game to her advantage. The concepts of land warfare can play out their part when it fits. Of course China still is short legged and short armed but she knows the addresses of all staging points of others as the others know the addresses of those small islands. So we can clearly foresee the red lines for each side if conflicts of any significant proportions shape up.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
China should fish farm on a massive scale as planned. Have them go out 12 miles in all directions and they can act as prop foulers if anyone dares to cross it.
Well I was just going to comment on it.
This makes it an even more opportune time for China to reclaim Scarborough Shoal IMO. They should start today, in fact. Scarborough Shoal is about as early-warning as it gets for any US military assets in the Philippines. Any radar station on a reclaimed Scarborough Shoal facility would have to be destroyed before the US uses anything out of the Philippines; this would be a sure sign of an impending attack on the SCS or on China itself. In peacetime Scarborough Shoal would be used to monitor US military activity in the region non-stop, not just radar but also SIGINT, given that it sits just about 120 miles off the coast of Subic Bay. This advantage alone would be enough to justify reclamation of this shoal. This is also why politicians and military officials in the US are calling for Obama to draw a "pink line" on Scarborough Shoal reclamation, a sure sign of just how important the US military sees this shoal.
It is different since this particular action is already in the spotlight prior to it taking place whereas other Chinese reclamations weren't before they were underway. Chinese action on Scarborough will probably be in response to Philippines', US', or others' actions that threaten Chinese claims or security in the SCS such as another military FON op, bomber deployments, or their own reclamation or construction.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Well I was just going to comment on it.
This makes it an even more opportune time for China to reclaim Scarborough Shoal IMO. They should start today, in fact. Scarborough Shoal is about as early-warning as it gets for any US military assets in the Philippines. Any radar station on a reclaimed Scarborough Shoal facility would have to be destroyed before the US uses anything out of the Philippines; this would be a sure sign of an impending attack on the SCS or on China itself. In peacetime Scarborough Shoal would be used to monitor US military activity in the region non-stop, not just radar but also SIGINT, given that it sits just about 120 miles off the coast of Subic Bay. This advantage alone would be enough to justify reclamation of this shoal. This is also why politicians and military officials in the US are calling for Obama to draw a "pink line" on Scarborough Shoal reclamation, a sure sign of just how important the US military sees this shoal.
Yes, because a common enemy has always been the best way to drive a wedge between squabbling allies.
Scarborough Shoal isn't going anyway, and China currently has full control of it.
Building an island isn't like deploying a carrier. Once you built an island, it's pretty much there for the foreseeable future. That means once his move has been made, it cannot be easily unmade. That means China would gain the tactical advantage of having a base so close, at the expense of loosing a huge potential bargining chip.
The extreme proximity of Scaborough to the Philipines means that if a base is built there, it would be like a dagger posed at the throat of the Philipines. Which would more likely than not force them to embrace America harder.
It would also effectively end any meaningful prospect of China reaching a peaceful, mutually beneficial agreement to the dispute.
Simply put, a base at Scarborough Shoal would in its own way be an end game of sorts. It would signal China giving up all hope of reaching any sort of true diplomatic solution to the dispute with the Philipines, and decided to play for all the marbles instead.
In many ways, Scarborough is the nuclear option. It's a last resort, not a first response; Once done, it cannot be undone; and once you go there, you effectively free the opposition to use their own not-literally-nuclear, nuclear options in response.
That would be the worst win for China.
At the moment, the threat of building an island base on it is probably a much more potent deterrence than the actual tactical and strategic value that could be hard from any base built there when balanced against the risks and costs of both building it, and then defending it in times of open conflict.
I believe a huge part of the very public falling out between the US and the Philipines is a growing realisation on the part of the Philipines that they are first in line for the consequences and fallout from the American pivot moves, while the US is neither willing or able to cut the kinds of giant blank cheques needed to underwrite the Philipines for those risks.
The far better win for China is to use the threat of building on Scarborough to pressure the Philipines to stop playing cats paw to the US.
Basically, all they need to do is use a commitment not to build on Scarborough as the collateral for its bargaining offer as a means to drive a wedge between the US and the Philippines, and at effectively zero costar risk to the Chinese.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It seem that US effort to rope in SEA country in grand coalition to contain China fail miserably . What are they thinking .There are 35 million Chinese in South East Asia and they occupy prominent position in all facet of life in SEA. They are your boss, your friend, your neighbor,your governor, your PM. China influence their language, custom, food you name it.since 1500. In other word China influence is pervasive
Mahathir ex Malaysia PM once said we don't afraid of China we know them we have been dealing with them for hundred of years. And we appreciate them for not colonizing Malaysia.
Japan even during the height of their economy might can't even come close when it come to influence in SEA
Even Indonesia is leaning toward China because China is the only game in Town if you want to built infrastructure which Indonesia need badly
VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — A summit of Southeast Asian countries issued a mild rebuke of China on Wednesday over its expansionist activities in the disputed South China Sea, and indirectly urged it to show restraint and not raise tensions.
In a victory for Beijing's diplomatic, economic and military clout, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations couldn't even get all of its 10 members to agree that China was responsible for building islands in the disputed and resource-rich sea.
A statement issued at the end of the ASEAN summit said in regard to the South China Sea, "We remain seriously concerned over recent and ongoing developments," without elaborating. It did not mention China by name.
The statement said the summit "took note of the concerns expressed by some leaders on the land reclamations and escalation of activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region."
China has recently developed shoals and coral reefs into seven islands with massive land reclamation work. Some of the islands have airstrips capable of handling military aircraft.
The use of the phrase "some leaders" in the statement underscores the fundamental problem ASEAN has had in dealing with China — not all of its members are willing to scold it. Cambodia remains firmly in China's camp, as is Laos to a large extent, preventing any robust statement from the consensus-bound group.
The issue of ownership of territories in the South China Sea has come to dominate ASEAN summit meetings in recent years. China claims virtually the entire sea as its own, citing historical reasons. That has pitted it against the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, all members of ASEAN.
On July 12, an international arbitration tribunal ruled against China's claims, saying they were illegal. It also rebuked China for forcibly preventing Filipinos from fishing in their traditional areas.
Beijing has rejected the ruling and continued its activities. The ASEAN statement made no mention of the tribunal.
On Wednesday, the Philippine government released what it says are surveillance pictures of Chinese coast guard ships and barges at disputed Scarborough shoal in the South China Sea.
It was an apparent attempt to publicize its concerns before ASEAN leaders met with Chinese Premier Li Kequiang in the Laotian capital in a side summit.
The Philippines is concerned that China may plan to turn the shoal into another man-made island.
But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China has not done anything to alter the circumstances surrounding the shoal.
"What I can tell you is that the situation in waters near Huangyan Island remains unchanged and China hasn't made any new moves," Hua said in Beijing, using the shoal's Chinese name. "We should be highly alert against the mischief-making intentions of people who spread such groundless information in such situations."
New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has taken a more conciliatory approach than his predecessor to rebuild relations with China, and has said he would not raise the long-simmering territorial dispute in an adversarial manner that might upset Beijing.
Relations were severely strained under Duterte's predecessor because of the conflict.
The U.S. military has also expressed concern over the possibility that China might turn Scarborough into another island, something that would give Beijing's forces greater control over a swath of the South China Sea used as a passageway to the Taiwan Strai
Mahathir ex Malaysia PM once said we don't afraid of China we know them we have been dealing with them for hundred of years. And we appreciate them for not colonizing Malaysia.
Japan even during the height of their economy might can't even come close when it come to influence in SEA
Even Indonesia is leaning toward China because China is the only game in Town if you want to built infrastructure which Indonesia need badly
VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — A summit of Southeast Asian countries issued a mild rebuke of China on Wednesday over its expansionist activities in the disputed South China Sea, and indirectly urged it to show restraint and not raise tensions.
In a victory for Beijing's diplomatic, economic and military clout, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations couldn't even get all of its 10 members to agree that China was responsible for building islands in the disputed and resource-rich sea.
A statement issued at the end of the ASEAN summit said in regard to the South China Sea, "We remain seriously concerned over recent and ongoing developments," without elaborating. It did not mention China by name.
The statement said the summit "took note of the concerns expressed by some leaders on the land reclamations and escalation of activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region."
China has recently developed shoals and coral reefs into seven islands with massive land reclamation work. Some of the islands have airstrips capable of handling military aircraft.
The use of the phrase "some leaders" in the statement underscores the fundamental problem ASEAN has had in dealing with China — not all of its members are willing to scold it. Cambodia remains firmly in China's camp, as is Laos to a large extent, preventing any robust statement from the consensus-bound group.
The issue of ownership of territories in the South China Sea has come to dominate ASEAN summit meetings in recent years. China claims virtually the entire sea as its own, citing historical reasons. That has pitted it against the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei, all members of ASEAN.
On July 12, an international arbitration tribunal ruled against China's claims, saying they were illegal. It also rebuked China for forcibly preventing Filipinos from fishing in their traditional areas.
Beijing has rejected the ruling and continued its activities. The ASEAN statement made no mention of the tribunal.
On Wednesday, the Philippine government released what it says are surveillance pictures of Chinese coast guard ships and barges at disputed Scarborough shoal in the South China Sea.
It was an apparent attempt to publicize its concerns before ASEAN leaders met with Chinese Premier Li Kequiang in the Laotian capital in a side summit.
The Philippines is concerned that China may plan to turn the shoal into another man-made island.
But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China has not done anything to alter the circumstances surrounding the shoal.
"What I can tell you is that the situation in waters near Huangyan Island remains unchanged and China hasn't made any new moves," Hua said in Beijing, using the shoal's Chinese name. "We should be highly alert against the mischief-making intentions of people who spread such groundless information in such situations."
New Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has taken a more conciliatory approach than his predecessor to rebuild relations with China, and has said he would not raise the long-simmering territorial dispute in an adversarial manner that might upset Beijing.
Relations were severely strained under Duterte's predecessor because of the conflict.
The U.S. military has also expressed concern over the possibility that China might turn Scarborough into another island, something that would give Beijing's forces greater control over a swath of the South China Sea used as a passageway to the Taiwan Strai
Who said anything about driving a wedge between squabbling allies? Nobody should be under the delusion that reclaiming Scarborough Shoal will change the long term geopolitical dynamic between the US, China, and the Philippines in China's favor. In the immediate future, however, this is a different matter. The US is transitioning its leadership at the same time a rift now appears between the US and the Philippines. I don't care how disciplined you are, being called a "son of a whore" is going to make you less likely to be either responsive or proactive in managing a situation which involves the guy who insulted your mother, especially if you're about to step out of office in 3 months.Yes, because a common enemy has always been the best way to drive a wedge between squabbling allies.
What bargaining chip? The Scarborough Shoal is not a bargaining chip, as if it were possibly going to be given over to the Philippines for any reason whatsoever at this point.
A reclaimed base at Scarborough Shoal is not any kind of "dagger" at the throat of the Philippines. It is totally useless as a military installation against the US, which would completely flatten the base at the outset of war, and is unnecessary against the likes of the Philippines. Its use as I said before is both as a tripwire for hostilities and as a base for monitoring US and Philippine military activities during peacetime.
Once China took definitive control of the Scarborough Shoal, reclaiming it was always the "end-game". The only variation on this game is when is this end reached. The only song and dance that is going to be played by China if at all is the timing of reclamation.
Not building on Scarborough Shoal will not be sufficient to drive any kind of wedge between the US and the Philippines, both because all parties know this would be nothing more than a temporary commitment and because the shoal by itself is totally inconsequential when compared to the long term security relationship between the US and the Philippines.
Chinese in those countries tend to isolate themselves rather than melt into and that's why they're ethnic Chinese after centuries. If you think about Laos it's much closer to Vietnam when it comes to culture and language than China. People from both countries blend into local communities fast mainly through marriages.
So I wouldn't call China being on some superb position there as their long time 'associates' (Laos and Myanmar) aren't given forever and thing may change easily in the future.