China's SCS Strategy Thread

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Source: Xinhua | 2016-06-05 22:46:57 | Editor: Tian Shaohui


BEIJING, June 5 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman on Sunday said the freedom of navigation and overflight in the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
has never been a problem.

China respects and supports such freedom enjoyed by all countries in accordance with international law, and has made great efforts in safeguarding the freedom with other countries in the region, Hua Chunying said in a press release.

She made the remarks in response to reports of some worries over the "freedom of navigation and overflight" in the South China Sea, expressed during the 15th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

Hua called the so-called problem of the navigation and overflight freedom a "pseudo-proposition" because there has never been a problem.

She said that the real intention of certain countries to hype up the topic is to sow dissension among countries in the region and create an excuse for political and military engagement in the South China Sea issue.

Safeguarding the freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea is not only the requirement of international law, but also in line with China's fundamental interests, she said, adding that China will unswervingly ensure it.

"We hope those certain countries will stop disturbing regional safety and stability in the name of safeguarding the right of the navigation freedom," Hua said.
related:
The following is the complete June 6, 2016 statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Remarks on Freedom of Navigation and Overflight in the South China Sea Discussed at the Shangri-La Dialogue

2016/06/06

Q: When talking about the South China Sea issue at the Shangri-La Dialogue, some people expressed concern about freedom of navigation and over-flight in the South China Sea. What is China’s comment?

A: We have noted the remarks.

The problem about freedom of navigation and over-flight in the South China Sea is a false statement. All countries have unimpeded access to normal navigation and flight activities in the South China Sea. We have never heard about any country encountering any problem. China respects and supports freedom of navigation and over-flight in the South China Sea to which all countries are entitled under international law, and has worked relentlessly for that together with other coastal states in the South China Sea. The international community knows that well.

I am afraid the negative publicity campaign on freedom of navigation and over-flight in the South China Sea launched by certain countries is driven by hidden motives. By sensationalizing the so-called tensions in the South China Sea, and driving wedges between countries in the region, they are trying to justify their political and military involvement in the South China Sea issue. That is what they really want.

China is the largest coastal state in the South China Sea. To ensure freedom of navigation and over-flight in the South China Sea meets not only the requirement of international law but also China’s fundamental interests. China will continue to do so and keep the shipping lane in the South China Sea unobstructed. We also hope that relevant countries will stop disturbing peace and stability of the region under the pretext of safeguarding or exercising freedom of navigation.
(I found it inside of
Beijing Accuses U.S. of ‘Negative Publicity Campaign’ Over South China Sea Issues
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)
 

Brumby

Major
One's ethnic background has a relationship to their country, and it is not unreasonable to speculate about it, especially if one is not claiming all of a person's position or stance is being determined by that said ethnic background.

This is of course contingent on a whole variety of factors such as when the individual in question "left" their homeland, the degree of cultural ties that they had maintained with their homeland, the opinions of their parents and how it meshes with views that people in their homeland may have...

But the key point is that I think it is reasonable to speculate about it because it is logically consistent to think that one's ethnic background is influenced by the values, culture, and history of their ethnic homeland.
The issue is not whether ethnicity is closely correlated to a country but whether opinion on a country is formed based on policies of a country as opposed to the ethnicity of a country. Further, the discussion is not about how opinions are developed within a community.

I interpreted the word vendetta more as a prolonged bitter or negative history between two groups, not necessarily seeking to injure one another explicitly. Both your definition and mine do exist for the word vendetta, and in the context of the rest of his post I used the "bitter/negative history" definition rather than "seeking to injure one another" definition.

Meaning of words might change over rime through usage but that doesn’t mean you can bend it to breaking point. The word vendetta is a combination of two key components i.e. history and prospective actions as a result of the former. You are attempting to change the meaning to incorporate the former and not the latter associated component which defines the word.

I have selectd two credible source in the definition of the word and they are consistent with what I have described

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


A blood feud in which the family of a murdered person seeks vengeance on the murderer or the murderer’s family.

Origin : Mid 19th century: from Italian, from Latin vindicta 'vengeance'.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


"an often prolonged series of retaliatory, vengeful, or hostile acts or exchange of such acts"

In other words it is not just about bad history but prospective acts of vengeance. Please show me a credible source that defines the meaning of vendetta according to your description.

I've never denied that such statements are not about ethnicity, I've openly said in my last post:

"He was indeed saying that certain groups tend to have certain attitudes (in this case Japanese having a negative view of China in certain ways)"

and more importantly, this second part:

"I think it is entirely sensible to acknowledge that one's ethnic background (and their associated cultural upbringing and socialization) may have a significant role in their geopolitical leaning."

So I'll repeat, that I think you would be justified to call his post inflammatory for the way it was written, but to accuse it of being groundless, absurd, irrational, racist, etc, aren't supported by the fairly limited claims that he was ultimately making.

In other words, I can understand if you want to say it is improper to speculate upon how one's ethnicity may have affected their stance on certain things, but on the principle of logic and common sense I have to categorically oppose you if you say that it is groundless, absurd, irrational and racist to suggest that one's ethnic background may not influence their stance on certain things.

You are attempting to reframe the issue into a political leaning and opinion discussion. The issue is about targeting an ethnicity and associating it with some behavioural tendencies i.e. vendetta. That is groundless, absurd, irrational, and racist.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
China Is Planning a Massive Sea Lab 10,000 Feet Underwater
Bloomberg News
June 7, 2016 — 3:00 PM PDT


If implemented, station could go up to 3,000 meters deep
Mining, military uses for project with no firm timetable



China is speeding up efforts to design and build a manned deep-sea platform to help it hunt for minerals in the South China Sea, one that may also serve a military purpose in the disputed waters.

QuickTake Territorial Disputes

Such an oceanic “space station” would be located as much as 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) below the surface, according to a recent Science Ministry presentation viewed by Bloomberg. The project was mentioned in China’s current five-year economic plan released in March and ranked number two on a list of the top 100 science and technology priorities.

Authorities recently examined the implementation of the project and decided to accelerate the process, according to the presentation.

"Having this kind of long-term inhabited station has not been attempted this deep, but it is certainly possible," said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "Manned submersibles have gone to those depths for almost 50 years. The challenge is operating it for months at a time."

So far there are few public details, including a specific time line, any blueprints or a cost estimate -- or where in the waterway it might be located. Still, China under President Xi Jinping has asserted itself more strenuously in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. Its claims to more than 80 percent of the waters and the creation of artificial islands covering 3,200 acres have inflamed tensions with nations including Vietnam and the Philippines.

Shipping Lane

It has also led the U.S. to send ships from its Seventh Fleet to ensure freedom of passage through an area that carries $5.3 trillion of global trade a year.


While China’s appetite for natural resources remains the driving force behind the project, the recent ministry presentation noted the platform would be movable, and used for military purposes. China has proposed a network of sensors called the "Underwater Great Wall Project” to help detect U.S. and Russian submarines, say analysts at IHS Jane’s.

‘Important Strategy’

"To develop the ocean is an important strategy for the Chinese government, but the deep sea space station is not designed against any country or region," said Xu Liping, a senior researcher for Southeast Asian affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-run institute.

"China’s project will be mainly for civil use, but we can’t rule out it will carry some military functions,” Xu said. “Many countries in the world have been researching these kind of deep water projects and China is just one of those nations."

When analysts look at the South China Sea, they tend to focus on the potential for oil and gas reserves as estimates for mineral deposits are sketchy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says the area has proved and probable reserves of about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

China’s estimates dwarf those. In 2012, Cnooc Ltd.’s then-chairman estimated the area holds around 125 billion barrels of oil and 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Typhoon Challenge

While most of the undiscovered oil lies in coastal regions that aren’t disputed, the contested areas face geological and technological challenges, not least the depth of the waters and frequency of typhoons.

Spearheading the planning for the deep-sea station is the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, according to a statement on the website of the science ministry. Once operational, it would host dozens of crew members who could remain underwater for up to a month, the ministry’s presentation separately said.

China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and the ministry did not reply to faxes seeking comment.

Close all those tabs. Open this email.

Planning has been under way for a decade and is central to China’s push to become a global technology superpower by 2030, according to the presentation. Completing it would help China close a deep sea exploration gap with the U.S., Japan, France and Russia on underwater technology. China has already logged successes, with its Jiaolong submersible setting a world record by descending 7 kilometers in 2012.

The ministry presentation didn’t give any estimated price tag but Bryan Clark, who formerly served as special assistant to the chief of U.S. naval operations, said the cost could be daunting and its vulnerability to detection would make it less attractive militarily than using a submarine or an unmanned vehicle.

China spent 1.42 trillion yuan ($216 billion) on state and privately-funded research and development in 2015, according to the National Statistics Bureau, while total defense spending this year is projected by the government to increase 7.6 percent to 954.4 billion yuan ($145 billion).

"The kinds of systems that make sense for deep sea are sensor and communication systems," said Clark. "In the Cold War, the U.S. and USSR spent much effort looking for each others’ communication cables and sensors to disrupt them in peacetime or attack them in war. We can assume those efforts would continue today and into the future."

— With assistance by Keith Zhai, and David Tweed
 
Last edited:
according to DefenseOne
Now China’s Fake Island Has a Farm
source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


the google translation (from the link inside, which is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) of
新华社海口6月6日电 题:灯塔·医院·农场——南沙岛礁见闻

新华社记者金敏、邓华宁

茫茫南海深处,奔涌的浪头撞击着绵延的礁盘腾起片片浪花;灿烂的热带阳光下,一幢幢建筑正加紧施工。

记者近日在美济、永暑、渚碧礁上,看见建设者们正忙着为高大的灯塔进行内部装修;漂亮的永暑医院里,正准备安装各类医疗设备;生态农场里,不仅蔬果飘香,鸡鸭鹅欢叫,鸽群更在海天间翱翔。
shows
Xinhua News Agency, Haikou, June 6 - Title: Lighthouse · Hospital · Farm - Nansha Islands horizons

Xinhua News Agency reporter Jin Min, Deng Huaning

The vast depths of the South China Sea, surging waves hitting the reef stretches piece Jumping waves; the bright tropical sun, is stepping up the building blocks of construction.

Reporters recently in the United States on economic, YONGSHU, Subi Reef, builders are busy to see the tall lighthouse interior decoration; beautiful YONGSHU hospital is preparing to install various types of medical equipment; ecological farm, not only fruits and vegetables fragrance, duck and goose tits, more pigeons flying across the sky.
to me, so is there a farm on
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

?
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The issue is not whether ethnicity is closely correlated to a country but whether opinion on a country is formed based on policies of a country as opposed to the ethnicity of a country. Further, the discussion is not about how opinions are developed within a community.

I'm going to take a step back because I'm not exactly sure what your position is anymore. I'll restate my position and you can re counter it more clearly:

I'm saying that one's opinions on a variety of matters (not limited to political or geopolitical matters) are influenced by their ethnic background, and that ethnic background in turn often has a significant relationship with the majority opinions of said ethnic group from their nation of origin.
[There are of course a variety of factors to consider such as the historical diaspora of an ethnic group, when an individual left their ethnic group's home nation such as prior to any major political or cultural changes, and the degree of ethnic upbringing an individual experienced if they were raised outside of their ethnic group's home nation, etc etc]

In other words, I'm not saying that a person's ethnic background must dictate their opinions on all matters, merely that it is reasonable to say that a person's ethnic background may influence their opinions on some matters.
I believe that is a very reasonable and logical position to take.


Meaning of words might change over rime through usage but that doesn’t mean you can bend it to breaking point. The word vendetta is a combination of two key components i.e. history and prospective actions as a result of the former. You are attempting to change the meaning to incorporate the former and not the latter associated component which defines the word.

I have selectd two credible source in the definition of the word and they are consistent with what I have described

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


A blood feud in which the family of a murdered person seeks vengeance on the murderer or the murderer’s family.

Origin : Mid 19th century: from Italian, from Latin vindicta 'vengeance'.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


"an often prolonged series of retaliatory, vengeful, or hostile acts or exchange of such acts"

In other words it is not just about bad history but prospective acts of vengeance. Please show me a credible source that defines the meaning of vendetta according to your description.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


2.
any prolonged and bitter feud, rivalry, contention, or the like:
a political vendetta.

Of course, the first definition is also as follows:
1.
a private feud in which the members of the family of a murderedperson seek to avenge the murder by killing the slayer or one of the slayer's relatives, especially such vengeance as once practiced in Corsica and parts of
Italy.

Similarly, from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

1. a private
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, originally between
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
or
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
families, in which the relatives of a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
person
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
the murderer or some member of his family
2. any
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
feud,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, etc

So I think I'm well within my rights to interpret the word Vendetta in the way which I described it:
"as a prolonged bitter or negative history between two groups, not necessarily seeking to injure one another explicitly".

Besides, did you really think I would make such a claim about the meaning of a word without having a few sources to back me up first?
If I had checked sources as not supporting my position then I'd clearly state it and acknowledge that my interpretation of the word vendetta originally was incorrect.


You are attempting to reframe the issue into a political leaning and opinion discussion. The issue is about targeting an ethnicity and associating it with some behavioural tendencies i.e. vendetta. That is groundless, absurd, irrational, and racist.

I'm not sure what you mean by "political leaning and opinion discussion".

Your assertions which I took exception to, was whether it is reasonable to suggest that one's ethnic background has an influence on their opinions and behaviours.
My academic background is firmly rooted in psychology (especially social psychology) and sociology, so for me this is less about politics than a result of my own education in social science at large.

If you are willing to agree that one's ethnic background has an influence on their opinions and behaviours, then that will remove the major quarrel underlying this discussion.

From there, you can say Insignius' post was too personal (against the Admiral), was off topic, or even accuse it of being flamebait, and I would not have major issue with it. But if you're accusing the logic or the social science behind his assertions as being groundless, absurd, irrational and racist, then this discussion is going to continue to be a long one.
 

Brumby

Major
China’s Ridiculously Weak Legal Argument Against Complying with the South China Sea Arbitration Award
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The forthcoming arbitral award in the dispute between the Philippines and China has become one of the most anticipated international judicial decisions in recent history, even
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. To weaken the legitimacy of any negative arbitral award, China has launched an
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
denigrating the legal basis for the tribunal’s award. The Philippines has launched a much less impressive campaign in defense of the award that has mostly just asserted that China should “follow international law” without actually explaining why China’s legal arguments are wrong.

While I have expressed strong
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
of the Philippines’ use of arbitration (and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
from a strategic perspective, I don’t have any such criticism of their legal arguments. China’s claim that it can legally ignore the pending arbitral award is not only wrong, it is legally insupportable. But because this claim is repeated again and again by Chinese diplomats, scholars, and journalists, outside observers might find China’s legal arguments persuasive or at least plausible. Indeed, a former Singaporean foreign minister has
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. So as a public service to journalists, policy analysts, and other non-lawyers, I offer a simple legal primer on why China has a very weak, or even ridiculous, argument for why it is allowed to legally boycott the South China Sea arbitration.

China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that it has no duty to abide by the award of the UN arbitral tribunal because China has made a declaration limiting that tribunal’s jurisdiction to exclude “territorial or sovereignty” disputes. Indeed, Chinese officials have stated that defying the ruling is necessary in order to protect and uphold international law and have accused the Philippines of “violating” international law by bringing this proceeding.

This argument doesn’t fly for one very simple reason. It willfully ignores
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which states: “n the event of a dispute as to whether a court or tribunal has jurisdiction, the matter shall be settled by decision of that court or tribunal.” This provision means that the arbitral tribunal gets to determine whether or not China’s declaration excludes or limits their jurisdiction over the Philippines’ claims.

The arbitral tribunal in this case spent over a year considering just this question and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that only seven of the Philippines’ claims clearly fall outside the scope of China’s declaration. This means that these seven claims do not involve or relate to maritime delimitation or sovereignty in a way that would fall within China’s declaration. The other eight claims, the tribunal decided, may fall within China’s declaration depending on the outcome of other legal determinations.

When China joined UNCLOS in 1996, it freely agreed to subject itself to compulsory dispute resolution under Article 296 (“Any decision rendered by a court or tribunal having jurisdiction under this section shall be final and shall be complied with by all the parties to the dispute) as well as Article 288(4) (“jurisdiction [shall be] settled by decision of that court or tribunal.”). Moreover, this type of provision is hardly unusual or unprecedented. China has agreed to similar provisions in the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) (See
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) and the Statute of the International Court of Justice (see
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
). This principle that a court or arbitration tribunal can determine its own jurisdiction goes back as far as the U.S.-U.K. “Alabama” arbitration in the 19th century.

The reason for this rule is obvious. If an arbitral tribunal is not permitted to determine what falls within the scope of its jurisdiction, one party (as China is trying to do here) could always avoid arbitration by claiming that the tribunal lacks jurisdiction. The “compulsory” nature of the arbitration – which China agreed to when it signed and ratified UNCLOS – would be rendered meaningless.

Yet as far as I can tell, no Chinese official or scholar has even mentioned Article 288(4), much less explained why they believe China is not bound by this clear and unequivocal language. The closest defense I’ve found is from last month by Mr. Xu Hong, the Director General of Treaty Affairs for China’s Foreign Ministry. He
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
:

States have the right not to accept or participate in the arbitration. China has no obligation to accept or participate in proceedings that are deliberately provocative. There is no lack of precedents in not accepting and not participating in international judicial or arbitral proceedings that are illegally initiated. It is not an innovation by China.

Director-General Xu doesn’t cite any sources for his claim that “there is no lack of precedents in not accepting and not participating in” illegally initiated international arbitral proceedings. He is probably thinking of the most famous recent case of “non-participation”: the U.S. government’s refusal to accept the jurisdiction of the ICJ over a claim by Nicaragua. But that is hardly a good legal precedent for China here, because there was wide agreement that the U.S. had violated its obligations under the ICJ, even though it refused to comply with the judgment.

At the end of the day, the weakness of China’s legal arguments may not matter very much. China has consistently stated that it will not abide by the tribunal’s ruling, and the arbitral tribunal is not in a position to legally enforce the award. But the legitimacy of China’s boycott will be measured in large part by the strength of its legal arguments. China has succeeded through its public relations campaign in clouding the issue and getting 40 countries to agree that China (and not the Philippines) is the one following international law. Critics of China’s response to the arbitration need a simple, clear response to China’s confusing and murky legal claims as to why it does not have to comply with the arbitration. Article 288(4) is that response.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
If you are willing to agree that one's ethnic background has an influence on their opinions and behaviours, then that will remove the major quarrel underlying this discussion.

From there, you can say Insignius' post was too personal (against the Admiral), was off topic, or even accuse it of being flamebait, and I would not have major issue with it. But if you're accusing the logic or the social science behind his assertions as being groundless, absurd, irrational and racist, then this discussion is going to continue to be a long one.

Actually, @Brumby, you know what, I'm going to drop it here.

I'm not sure what your opinion is regarding my bottom line, but this is a particular topic which I actually don't have too much personal investment in apart from my value of social sciences and psychology in particular.

So I'm going to voluntarily bow out of this one, because while I'm sure I can definitely keep up a long discussion with you on the topic, it's not one which is that interesting for me.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Back on topic.

The Pew Global Attitudes survey from last year asked whether people think China will or has replaced the USA as the world’s leading superpower. See below

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The results from the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan are hugely negative about China. And these results are very much outliers from the views held in the rest of Asia and the rest of the world.

There is always a time lag between changes in the world versus the views held by the average person, but I suspect it is more a case about those countries being in denial.

It simply doesn't square with the situation we see today, where China has already passed the US in most metrics of *economic power*, yet is still growing far faster as it is still a relatively poorer developing economy.

So what does this mean for China's strategy?

If China continues to focus on internal economic development and reform, we will likely end up at a situation where the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan can no longer maintain their old prejudices against the reality of a dominant China in the Western Pacific. At that point, there will be a sea-change in relations as they become more conciliatory towards China.

But of course, that all depends on China becoming a wealthy middle-class and hi-tech country that is far larger than the US in the future. It therefore makes sense to move the SCS to the back-burner as much as possible.
 

Brumby

Major
China already said it doesn't care what others think.
It will never accept any Hague arbitration in any shape or form.
There is a major difference between China doesn't care and the false narrative that the arbitral commission has no legal standing to make the determination.
 
Top