China's SCS Strategy Thread

[joshuatree]

Why the hell isn't anyone taking issue with Japan's fat rump claim? That's easily more than twice as large as China's "cow tone".

Oh I take issue. It's pure hypocrisy that China's maritime claims get all the attention as excessive and yet Japan's claim such as their continental shelf does not. One little rock feature that's being artificially kept above high tide (Okinotori) should not afford that much area. It's the same exact thing which is being charged against China. Furthermore, claimants against China do the same thing and use several little features to push their maritime claims right up against Taiwan's shores which is a much larger piece of land and much larger population relative to them.

 

[bd popeye]

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In a move likely to further increase already volatile tensions in the region, China has deployed fighter jets to a contested island in the South China Sea, the same island where China deployed surface-to-air missiles last week, two U.S. officials tell Fox News.

One U.S. official put the number of Chinese warplanes in the single digits, “under ten,” he said.

The dramatic escalation came as Secretary of State John Kerry hosted his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, at the State Department.

Wang said Tuesday he hoped that “close up” military flights and patrols by U.S. Navy ships over the contested islands would end.

Kerry said he wanted China to end its militarization of the contested islands in the South China Sea.

Chinese Shenyang J-11s (“Flanker”) and Xian JH-7s (“Flounder”) have been seen by U.S. intelligence on Woody Island in the past few days, the same island where Fox News

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last week that China had sent two batteries of HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles while President Obama was hosting 10 Southeast Asian leaders in Palm Springs.

Wang was supposed to visit the Pentagon Tuesday, but the visit was canceled. It was not immediately clear which side canceled the visit. Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said a “scheduling conflict” prevented the meeting, when asked by Fox News at Tuesday's press briefing.

When asked about the earlier Fox News story in Beijing, Wang said the deployment of the missiles was for “defensive purposes.”

Woody Island is the largest island in the Paracel chain of islands in the South China Sea. It lies 250 miles southeast of a major Chinese submarine base on Hainan Island. China has claimed Woody Island since the 1950s, but it is contested by Taiwan and Vietnam.

 

[weig2000]

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This is nothing new. There have always been some defense facilities on the Woody Island and military aircraft. A J-11B take-off picture was even posted on SDF a few months ago. The media is deliberately mixing up the Woody Island with the Spratly Islands further south. Woody Island, by the way, has been under Chinese control since the '50s. It's a natural island and China declared territorial lines around the island back in 1996.

The media is getting ridiculous.

 

[tidalwave]

I don't understand China, why is it so unproactive.

If for any other countries , they would militarize paracel into a major naval base long ago and there wouldn't be issues today as China faced currently.

I see the situation is rather lame.

Too many of such instances
Signing of UNCLOS, code of conduct with ASEAN previously, Pledging of Nonmilitarization by Xi all these type of face related activities(trying to be a nice guy) came back to slap China on the face. They are all traps!

 

[AndrewS]

Strategy-wise, here is how I see China and the SCS

Economic Sticks

The Philippines and Vietnam have been most vocal about Chinese activities in the SCS. So we see the Philippines being cut out of the New Silk Road, and various economic punishments being applied to Vietnam. Their economies are so much smaller, less diversified and also less advanced than Chinas, which means the leverage is asymmetric.

Economic Carrots

China is the world's largest economy is terms of economic output, the largest trading nation, largest industrial nation and largest net foreign investor. So SCS countries with better relations with China benefit from economic largesse. Think China's recent bailout of the Malaysian Sovereign Wealth Fund, or China subsidising the Indonesian railway deal which will help a much poorer Indonesia reach its 7% growth target. This cooperation should be win-win for everyone involved.

Security Strategy

China is too far along on its island reclamation and construction to reverse its actions, particularly since there is a pending UNCLOS ruling in the works and the possession of the island bases has a large number of security benefits to China (eg. SSBN bastion / anti-blockade strategy / extended AD2D perimeter / power projection capabilities etc).

However this has resulted in many of the SCS countries becoming nervous as to China's intentions, and inviting in outside militaries to counter the increased Chinese presence.

Obviously this is not in China's interest, so I see the following possible solutions to this.

1. Clearer communications on China's intentions, such as a declaration that China will always maintain freedom of commercial navigation in the SCS. And this would be accepted as it would obviously be in the naked self-interests of a China which is the world's largest trading nation with most of its trade passing through the SCS. Note that the smaller littoral nations of the SCS are even more dependent on the free flow of shipping through the SCS.

2. On the military and security front, make it clear that increased military/political pushback will result in a tit-for-tat game for escalation dominance (short of full-scale war) that China will win as the SCS is right next to China. And everyone agrees that the islands in the SCS are not worth a full-scale war in any circumstances.

Eg. Philippines going to UNCLOS and running to the US for a security guarantee and ignoring China = massive island reclamation which will change the facts on the ground and the creation of military-grade capabilities which can project power against the Philippines homeland.

Or increased FON patrols by outside powers = greater militarisation of the SCS by China. This is obviously not in the interests of the SCS nations, so they should push for less outside intervention but there needs to be a much better communications route between China and the SCS nations.

3. In the long-run, settle the territorial disputes in the SCS, because at the end of the day, the value of that territory is marginal to every nation involved, and they all know it. And once the disputes are settled, China naturally has military primacy in the region and should lead a multi-lateral security organisation which includes the other nations of the SCS. The remit would include anti-piracy and keeping the sea lanes open no matter what happens, unlike certain outside powers which would close those shipping lanes in the event of a blockade against China.

That is only way for China to be truly secure in the SCS, but there are certain outside interests who have no desire in ever seeing this happen.

And I council patience in these endeavours, because time is on China's side. Even if the Chinese economy slows down further to 6% per year, it still doubles in size in 12 years time. China will be in a much different place by then.

 

[tidalwave]

Deng Xiao Ping made a huge strategic Mistake.
His motto is "to hide, buy time and wait till China stronger". Duh, wait till china stronger, US would turn against it.

In 80s, China and US were at the same page. If China asked for US help in terms equipments needed to reclaim South China Sea, I have no doubt US would help. Vietnam was economically sanctioned internationally for invading Cambodia and US hated Vietnam . That 50K+ soldiers died in Vietnam still fresh in mind. Deng's border war with Vietnam also had US's blessings.

China with the help of US, can evict Vietnam and Philippines completely out of South China Sea for good in the 80s. Then have UN ratify it.

Opportunity Lost.

Deng's motto applies to Taiwan situation but Not South China Sea.
US turned against China when it see it becomes too strong.

 

[jobjed]

Deng Xiao Ping made a huge strategic Mistake.
His motto is "to hide, buy time and wait till China stronger". Duh, wait till china stronger, US would turn against it.

In 80s, China and US were at the same page. If China asked for US help in terms equipments needed to reclaim South China Sea, I have no doubt US would help. Vietnam was economically sanctioned internationally for invading Cambodia and US hated Vietnam . That 50K+ soldiers died in Vietnam still fresh in mind. Deng's border war with Vietnam also had US's blessings.

China with the help of US, can evict Vietnam and Philippines completely out of South China Sea for good in the 80s. Then have UN ratify it.

Opportunity Lost.

Deng's motto applies to Taiwan situation but Not South China Sea.
US turned against China when it see it becomes too strong.

You're being too impatient and are overstating the issue with the SCS. China had a relatively smooth development for the past three decades because she stayed out of other countries' ways where possible. If the price for China's prosperity and strength today is the temporary nuisance from a few irrelevant tiny countries, then it should be paid gladly.

Yes, China can have undisputed possession of the SCS islands but such an aggressive foreign policy would have invited many more Western attempts to screw with China wherever they can. The result could be that China today would be stuck at the development level of the Middle East.

With China's economic strength and growth, the possession of the islands in due course is a foregone conclusion. The US will soon no longer be able to compete with China in her own backyard, much less the small countries that think they can carve out a slice for themselves with another giant's blessing. By staying low-key for three decades, China secured her economy and with it, future military supremacy.

 

[AndrewS]

You're being too impatient and are overstating the issue with the SCS. China had a relatively smooth development for the past three decades because she stayed out of other countries' ways where possible. If the price for China's prosperity and strength today is the temporary nuisance from a few irrelevant tiny countries, then it should be paid gladly.

Yes, China can have undisputed possession of the SCS islands but such an aggressive foreign policy would have invited many more Western attempts to screw with China wherever they can. The result could be that China today would be stuck at the development level of the Middle East.

With China's economic strength and growth, the possession of the islands in due course is a foregone conclusion. The US will soon no longer be able to compete with China in her own backyard, much less the small countries that think they can carve out a slice for themselves with another giant's blessing. By staying low-key for three decades, China secured her economy and with it, future military supremacy.

I generally agree with the above except for the following caveats.

"The possession of the islands in due course is a foregone conclusion" *if China really wants them*

===

In 15 years time, the situation will inevitably be different.

Maybe the nations of the SCS will decide to drop their claims in exchange for mutual economic prosperity and an end to possibility of territorial conflict.
Or maybe it will be China that will decide to drop its claims in exchange for mutual economic prosperity and an end to possibility of territorial conflict.
Or maybe China and the SCS come to an agreement on shared sovereignty and the creation of a multi-lateral economic and security partnership led by China.
There are more possibilities in addition to these.

But in all these cases, China and the SCS nations win if everyone remains at peace and focuses on economic development, which is key to ending widespread poverty in all the countries involved.

Only nations from outside the SCS benefit from disputes and discord in the SCS.

We've already seen the US stirring the pot recently, and the Australians scupper the joint China-Vietnam-Filipino SCS resource extraction deal some 15 years ago.

 

[solarz]

I generally agree with the above except for the following caveats.

"The possession of the islands in due course is a foregone conclusion" *if China really wants them*

===

In 15 years time, the situation will inevitably be different.

Maybe the nations of the SCS will decide to drop their claims in exchange for mutual economic prosperity and an end to possibility of territorial conflict.
Or maybe it will be China that will decide to drop its claims in exchange for mutual economic prosperity and an end to possibility of territorial conflict.
Or maybe China and the SCS come to an agreement on shared sovereignty and the creation of a multi-lateral economic and security partnership led by China.
There are more possibilities in addition to these.

But in all these cases, China and the SCS nations win if everyone remains at peace and focuses on economic development, which is key to ending widespread poverty in all the countries involved.

Only nations from outside the SCS benefit from disputes and discord in the SCS.

We've already seen the US stirring the pot recently, and the Australians scupper the joint China-Vietnam-Filipino SCS resource extraction deal some 15 years ago.

The SCS dispute is a struggle between an established superpower and a rising regional power. The other claimants are just smoke screens and cat's paws. The real issue is not about territorial claims, but rather who can control the region.

The USN enjoys a tremendous advantage over the PLAN. China's only hope of countering that advantage is to install land based fortifications in the area. The only way to do that is to claim sovereignty over those islands. The US wants to prevent China from achieving A2/AD, so it will continue to spur the other claimants against China.

If the US controls the SCS, it can use the threat of blockade as leverage in any negotiations. If China controls the region, it would not have to worry about an outside power holding a knife to it.

 

[AndrewS]

The SCS dispute is a struggle between an established superpower and a rising regional power. The other claimants are just smoke screens and cat's paws. The real issue is not about territorial claims, but rather who can control the region.

The USN enjoys a tremendous advantage over the PLAN. China's only hope of countering that advantage is to install land based fortifications in the area. The only way to do that is to claim sovereignty over those islands. The US wants to prevent China from achieving A2/AD, so it will continue to spur the other claimants against China.

If the US controls the SCS, it can use the threat of blockade as leverage in any negotiations. If China controls the region, it would not have to worry about an outside power holding a knife to it.

I think that is generally correct, but remember that China is not just a rising regional power. In the coming years, it will likely surpass the US in most categories of power, so will likely become a global superpower as well.

The other thing to note is that with Chinese control of the SCS, it is now China that will be holding a knife to a country like a much smaller and poorer Vietnam, which shares a land border with the Chinese Army and is also a long thin coastal state surrounded by Chinese bases.