China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jeff Head]

The

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(CSIS) has some new photographs of Fiery Cross Reef and Johnson South Reef. I couldn't right-click to get a URL of each photo, does anyone have any tips?

They also estimate the size of each reclaimed island:

I thought I would convert these into acres. For your information:

One acre = 4100 square meters
1 square mile = 640 acres.

Mischief Reef: 5,580,000 sq. meters = 1,379 acres = 2.14 sq miles.
Subi Reef: 3,950,000 sq. meters = 976 acres = 1.52 sq miles.
Fiery Cross Reef: 2,740,000 sq. meters = 677 acres = 1.06 sq miles.
Cuarteron Reef: 231,100 sq. meters = 57 acres = .09 sq miles.
Gaven Reef: 136,000 sq. meters = 34 acres = .05 sq miles.
Johnson South Reef: 109,000 sq. meters = 27 acres = .04 sq miles.
Hughes Reef: 76,000 sq. meters = 19 acres = .03 sq miles.

These are HUGE areas. MIschief reef has reclaimed over two square miles of territory! That would be an area equivalent to 10,560 feet x 5,280 feet. IMHO, clearly the first three are the locations where airfields would be considered.

As a comparison, in Washington DC the following area is approximately two square miles:



That is basically all of the major US historical monuments, including the White House and a large swath surrounding it. If you have ever been there, that is a huge area.

 

[plawolf]

I thought I would convert these into acres. For your information:

One acre = 4100 square meters
1 square mile = 640 acres.

Mischief Reef: 5,580,000 sq. meters = 1,379 acres = 2.14 sq miles.
Subi Reef: 3,950,000 sq. meters = 976 acres = 1.52 sq miles.
Fiery Cross Reef: 2,740,000 sq. meters = 677 acres = 1.06 sq miles.
Cuarteron Reef: 231,100 sq. meters = 57 acres = .09 sq miles.
Gaven Reef: 136,000 sq. meters = 34 acres = .05 sq miles.
Johnson South Reef: 109,000 sq. meters = 27 acres = .04 sq miles.
Hughes Reef: 76,000 sq. meters = 19 acres = .03 sq miles.

These are HUGE areas. MIschief reef has reclaimed over two square miles of territory! That would be an area equivalent to 10,560 feet x 5,280 feet. IMHO, clearly the first three are the locations where airfields would be considered.

As a comparison, in Washington DC the following area is approximately two square miels:

View attachment 15221

That is basically all of the major US historical monuments, including the White House and a large swath surrounding it. If you have ever been there, that is a huge area.

Wow, that really puts it into perspective, great work Jeff!

Anyone know the size of the US marine base in Okinawa for comparison?

Anyways, they have space to build a huge military base if they wanted with that much real estate, and could still have plenty of space left over a civilians.

 

[Jeff Head]

Wow, that really puts it into perspective, great work Jeff!

Anyone know the size of the US marine base in Okinawa for comparison?

Anyways, they have space to build a huge military base if they wanted with that much real estate, and could still have plenty of space left over a civilians.

Oh yes.

Those first three new islands are all over one square mile in area. All of those could receive airfields and the structures to go along with them.

In addition, the smallest of these is 19 acres (77,900 square meters)...that's a lot of room itself.

All of them are have had significant work done to provide jettys, piers, docks, etc...and lagoons for vessels.

This work reminds me of the great projects in the US from the 1930s through the 1950s where the huge US infrastructure projects were built. Like the Three Gorges dam and hydro plant and the massive highway programs in the PRC, the Chinese SCS reclamation work rates in that same magnitude IMHO.

 

[delft]

A nice comparison, Jeff. A lot of what was built then contributed massively to the growth of the US economy ever since. Unfortunately maintenance has now been neglected on a lot of that, highways, dams, railroads, sewage systems, &c., for a long time and that now contributes to US poverty. Many states and municipalities are simply unable to their duty. Congress is being difficult every year. And I don't see it being a major subject in the next elections.
Let's hope the Chinese take this as a warning.

 

[Jeff Head]

A nice comparison, Jeff. A lot of what was built then contributed massively to the growth of the US economy ever since. Unfortunately maintenance has now been neglected on a lot of that, highways, dams, railroads, sewage systems, &c., for a long time and that now contributes to US poverty.

Actually delft...there is a LOT of work being done on US infrastructure...including highways, bridges, etc. The US sewage and water treatment system is among the best in the world. My older brother was a professional engineer who spent his life in Water Treatment, and I can say from my own experience that those systems have not, and are not neglected.

In addition, I personally work for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, one of the two agencies the other is the U.S. Corps of Engineers) that take care of major US dams. I can tell you that the major works are definitely NOT being neglected. The US has one of the best maintenance programs, staffs, and budget in the world for that type of work.

The comment to US "poverty," is simply hyperbole.

Most of the US is definitely NOT in poverty...and what the US does define as the poverty line...I can attest from my own pretty extensive travels world wide...is the "richest" poverty line in the world.

ALL OF THIS is really Off Topic here, so let's just agree to leave it at that.

 

[Blackstone]

Oh yes.

Those first three new islands are all over one square mile in area. All of those could receive airfields and the structures to go along with them.

In addition, the smallest of these is 19 acres (77,900 square meters)...that's a lot of room itself.

All of them are have had significant work done to provide jettys, piers, docks, etc...and lagoons for vessels.

This work reminds me of the great projects in the US from the 1930s through the 1950s where the huge US infrastructure projects were built. Like the Three Gorges dam and hydro plant and the massive highway programs in the PRC, the Chinese SCS reclamation work rates in that same magnitude IMHO.

A follow up question is will China build hardened shelters for aircrafts it'll base on the three airstrips?

 

[Jeff Head]

A follow up question is will China build hardened shelters for aircrafts it'll base on the three airstrips?

I expect that they will build hangers, Aircraft Control Towers, fuel and storage facilities, etc. necessary for whatever they expect the threat level to be.

One thing is for sure...whatever they build...they will not skimp on it over money or manpower costs.

 

[Blackstone]

A little news on Taiwan Province's SCS (11-dash line) claims.

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(US State Department Jeff) Rathke said the US does not take a position on the sovereignty of land features.

Asked to comment on the legality of the claims of Taiwan and of China, Rathke said the US has consistently called on China to clarify its “nine-dash line” claim to explain its justification under international law.

“We think that if China were to do that, that would be a helpful contribution,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus yesterday said it “strongly” supported Ma’s South China Sea peace initiative, saying that the plan that aims to “shelve sovereignty disputes and calls for cooperation among neighboring countries in the development of the resources” was “visionary.”

“During the seven years Ma has been in office, the defense of Taiping Island (太平島) [also known as Itu Aba Island] has greatly improved, but with the island being 1,600km away from Taiwan proper, it would be hard to guard our interests there solely with military power,” KMT Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) said. “That’s why [Ma] tabled the initiative: to protect our claims in the related regions by dint of diplomatic means. So there should be nothing in the initiative for the DPP to criticize.”

 

[no_name]

The

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(CSIS) has some new photographs of Fiery Cross Reef and Johnson South Reef. I couldn't right-click to get a URL of each photo, does anyone have any tips?

Are you looking for those two?:

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Just right click on the blank section of the webpage and click view page source, then go ctrl-f and search for .jpg or other image file types.

Btw two of the reclaimed islands are already bigger than NY central park.

 

[Blackstone]

Here's an article from China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) that discuss many issues related to the ECS and SCS. There's one passage that shows the importance of understanding history and sequence of events without which acceptable resolutions are much harder to achieve. Those that say history isn't important to resolve sovereignty disputes need to rethink their views, because is is paramount in many cases. The moral of the story is Realpolitik was and is practiced by everyone, and nations that can break international laws to pursue their interests will do so. Condemning China for doing what everyone (that can) has done is irrational and/or hypocritical.

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...
Just a few years ago, the idea of Chinese maritime predominance was pure fantasy. This is illustrated in a little-remembered confrontation between Japanese and Chinese forces that took place in 2002. In December of the previous year, the Japan Coast Guard

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an armed North Korean trawler operating near the Japanese coast, an encounter that

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grandiosely calls the Battle of Amami-Ōshima.

After hours of fight and flight, the trawler ultimately went down in Chinese jurisdictional waters. Japanese policymakers decided to raise the wreck, causing consternation among Chinese leaders. The operation would involve questions of Chinese rights and interests embodied within the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China

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six years earlier. In response, Chinese policymakers instructed the China Marine Surveillance (CMS), a maritime law enforcement agency, to deploy a task force of ships to monitor the Japanese operations.

The CMS task force was ordered to “maintain presence and show jurisdiction,” that is, to be present to remind the Japanese who had authority. But if the Chinese record is any guide, it was clear that the Japanese were in charge. According to the

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of the CMS task force commander, Liu Zhendong, Japan created a security perimeter around the site, barring Chinese access to the salvage operations. It could do so because it was able to muster many more ships: as many as 19 vessels, while CMS could send at most four, cobbled together from units from all over the country. Moreover, Japan’s cutters were much larger than China’s. Among the ships buttressing Japan’s security perimeter was the 6,500 ton Shikishima (PLH-31)—the world’s largest coast guard ship. In the end, China was forced to resort to guile to gain access to the salvage operations: it accused a Japanese ship of leaking oil, a violation of China’s environmental protection laws.
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