China's SCS Strategy Thread

[AndrewS]

No going to happen. Instead of looking at the effect of such blokade on China's trades, we shall look at the importance of Malacca Straits and South China sea to Singapore.

Singapore 's import and exports and transhipment trades go through Malacca Straits and South China sea, is in fact closedly related to China's trade. Moreover these import and export and transhipment was reported at 322% (Three Hundred and Twenty Two %) of Sigapore's GDP in 2024. I don't know if there is any other country that depend on so much of a straits shipping lane on their GDP other than Singapore.

Blocking China's shipping in Malacca straits will kill practically every industry sectors in Singapore, from manufacturing, shipping, banking, insurance, shipyard repairs and mantenance etc. It is a suicide act of stupidity.

Morever, the control of Malacca Straits is jointly undertaken by binding agreement, by 3 countries, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Singapore's unilateral action, if taken, will invite excuses fro Malaysia and Indonesia to attack the island nation. And China will joint these two countries.

It is not a lost-lost situation, it is an extinction for Singapore, they will be erased from the map as a nation. Singapore is a small country of 719 Sq KM, or 1/47 the size of Hainan island, they have no area to fall back during an attack.

So, no, it is not going to happen.

Yes.

And if you read Kaplan's book (Asia's Cauldron), Singaporean government thinking is that freedom of seaborne commercial navigation is an existential matter for Singapore's survival.

If anyone starts blockading the Malacca Straits, it is in Singapore's interest to break that blockade.

And note that it is the US which keeps going on about a Malacca blockade, whilst China will always want to keep the Malacca Straits open.
China-ASEAN trade is also intertwined, so China and ASEAN in general have an interest in keeping the Malacca Straits open.

 

[TK3600]

And I want to emphasize while China has a large core population, it is not immune to mass migration. The staggering number of African illegals in GuangZhou is causing severe problems for the locals. CCP has taken step to mass deport them. I guess you can say there is something MAGA and CCP can agree on. It is something I can agree as well. People needs to stop conflate importing a few qualified professionals to mass migration of poor and unruly.

If your culture disregard family and stopped reproducing, then something long term must be done. Importing people en mass never ends well, ever in history. You accept the mistake and its consequence. Then you solve it, no matter how long it takes. It may take a century and your population halves, it is a necessary sacrifice to pay for the original mistake.