China's SCS Strategy Thread

Ultra

Junior Member
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China’s rapid island reclamation

Washington is not a claimant to the contested Spratly/Nansha island territories, and it has repeatedly said it will stay neutral.

Yet it has been very vocal in criticising “the pace and scope of China’s land reclamation”, as US Secretary of State
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while visiting Beijing last weekend.

It is true that China’s has built up land in the Spratly/Nansha islands at a rapid pace – far more quickly than any other nation in the region has before.

In just one of the sites China is working on, it has expanded from a 380-square-metre platform to an island of 75,000 square metres in a matter of five months, according to
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.

However, why is it a problem now that China is doing it, when it wasn’t seen as a problem before?

The increased criticism and pressure from the US does not appear to be deterring the Chinese government.
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at the same press conference with Kerry that:


"The determination of the Chinese side to safeguard our own sovereignty and territorial integrity is as firm as a rock, and it is unshakeable."



Claims of defending freedom of navigation
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is an old and widely recognised principle in international law, which means that ships flying the flag of any sovereign state shall not suffer interference from other states (unless there’s a legitimate legal reason to do so).

If there’s one country that cares the most about the freedom of navigation, not just in the South China Sea but also internationally, it is China.

That’s because China is now the
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in the world, and
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is conducted through shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

China not only needs to get its exports out to the world, but it also needs vital imports. For example, China imports huge amount of iron ore, coal and liquefied gas from Australia.

At one point, Australia accounted for as much as 70% of China’s
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. Any disturbance of the sea lanes will not only affect countries like Australia but also make it difficult for China to continue its construction of high-speed rail, bridges and ports.

It defies logic for Beijing to somehow disrupt peaceful shipping lines, because that will put itself in an undesirable situation, both for its exports and imports.

A clash of two superpowers
The Spratly/Nansha islands dispute is completely different from the
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situation.

China is reclaiming land and building infrastructure in its own territory, or at most, in disputed sea waters. Beijing is not grabbing a piece of land from another sovereign country.

So why is Washington so eager to flex its muscles to challenge the Chinese?

It’s really about the competition between an established super power and a rising one. The US talk of using its military in the South China Sea could be another attempt to contain the rise of China.

Through its “pivot to Asia” strategy, the US has reinforced its
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. It is increasing its military presence in
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and in
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. The US has also
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on
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, at the same time as the Philippines has
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.

All those factors may help explain why the US is threatening to escalate the tensions in the South China Sea, despite not having a strong case to intervene.

China’s actions in the South China Sea do not breach international law, as even US Assistant Secretary of State Russel acknowledged in a recent interview with
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:


"Reclamation isn’t necessarily a violation of international law, but it’s certainly violating the harmony, the feng shui, of South-East Asia, and it’s certainly violating China’s claim to be a good neighbour and a benign and non-threatening power."


China is violating the “feng shui” of South-East Asia? It’s hardly a compelling argument for US intervention in the South China Sea, especially when it has turned a blind eye to other nations' island building for so long.

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Blackstone

Brigadier
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Obama: land reclamation projects in South China Sea 'counterproductive'

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Monday that land reclamation projects in the South China Sea are unproductive and called for an end to aggressive action in the region.

"We think that land reclamation, aggressive actions by any party in that area are counterproductive," Obama said in a town-hall discussion at the White House with a group of young leaders from southeast Asian nations.

"China is going to be successful. It's big, it's powerful, its people are talented and they work hard. And it may be some of their claims are legitimate," Obama said.

"But they shouldn't just try to establish that based on throwing elbows and pushing people out of the way," he said.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton; Editing by Bill Trott)
The SCS disputes are too complex to be framed by one liners, and a quick survey reveal very different agendas from involved nations.
  • US already lost economic supremacy in Asia, so Obama abandoned engagement for containment. That's what the military-focused pivot and the pseudo economic treaty called TPP are all about
  • Vietnam is less interested in economic cooperation, since China has consistently and repeatedly called for joint exploration and profit sharing, but to no avail. Vietnam wants US to balance China, but only to saber ratte for show. Hanoi hasn't figured out how to change the laws of physics and remove its long land border with China
  • Philippines isn't interesting in sharing what it considers its national treasure, and wants the US to take tough actions for them. In addition, it has a presidential election coming up, and all of the front runners want to dial down tensions for better relations with Beijing
  • Australia grew fat on Chinese trade, which accounts for 24% of its exports, and has zero interests in upsetting the gravy train. It would support the US with tough talks, but that's about all. Recent panic over B-1 bomber stationing is pretty good indication of how Canberra feels about being dragged into a great power conflict thousands of miles away from its shores
  • ROK is already in China's orbit, and getting more so with each passing year
  • Taiwan realizes more than anyone independence went the way of the dinosaur, so it just wants to do business and stay out of the dragon's bossom for as long as possible
  • All other Asian countries count China as their top trading partner, and great power conflicts are out of the question
  • Japan is between the devil and the deep blue sea, and it knows it. Its security problems will get bigger as time goes on, and in another decade, it would fall into China's orbit. Abe sees it clearly, and he's doing everything he can to forestall it, but Japan's fate depends on China stumbling or continuing to rise, and hope isn't a good strategy
US has the tougher task, because coordinating a unified front against China is like herding cats, and if things don't change quickly enough, then Beijing solidifies its hold on the SCS. Since no one is willing to risk war by physically stopping Chinese expansion efforts, time is on China's side.
 
Last edited:

ahojunk

Senior Member
The SCS disputes are too complex to be framed by one liners, and a quick survey reveal very different agendas from involved nations.
  • US already lost economic supremacy in Asia, so Obama abandoned engagement for containment. That's what the military-focused pivot and the pseudo economic treaty called TPP are all about
  • Vietnam is less interested in economic cooperation, since China has consistently and repeatedly called for joint exploration and profit sharing, but to no avail. Vietnam wants US to balance China, but only to saber ratte for show. Hanoi hasn't figured out how to change the laws of physics and remove its long land border with China
  • Philippines isn't interesting in sharing what it considers its national treasure, and wants the US to take tough actions for them. In addition, it has a presidential election coming up, and all of the front runners want to dial down tensions for better relations with Beijing
  • Australia grew fat on Chinese trade, which accounts for 24% of its exports, and has zero interests in upsetting the gravy train. It would support the US with tough talks, but that's about all. Recent panic over B-1 bomber stationing is pretty good indication of how Canberra feels about being dragged into a great power conflict thousands of miles away from its shores
  • ROK is already in China's orbit, and getting more so with each passing year
  • Taiwan realizes more than anyone independence went the way of the dinosaur, so it just wants to do business and stay out of the dragon's bossom for as long as possible
  • All other Asian countries count China as their top trading partner, and great power conflicts are out of the question
  • Japan is between the devil and the deep blue sea, and it knows it. Its security problems will get bigger as time goes on, and in another decade, it would fall into China's orbit. Abe sees it clearly, and he's doing everything he can to forestall it, but Japan's fate depends on China stumbling or continuing to rise, and hope isn't a good strategy
US has the tougher task, because coordinating a unified front against China is like herding cats, and if things don't change quickly enough, then Beijing solidifies its hold on the SCS. Since no one is willing to risk war by physically stopping Chinese expansion efforts, time is on China's side.

@Blackstone,
This is very good analysis by you.
I don't think anyone could have said it any better.
Hats off to you.
 

kwiekie

New Member
Wu Jianmin: China is not a super power - BBC News
China has been accused by Washington of bullying its neighbours in the South China Sea over disputed territory there; Washington is seeking a new trade pact in Asia that excludes Beijing, whilst China is spending hundreds of billions in investment projects across Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America extending its economic power the world over. HARDtalk's Zeinab Badawi talks to one of China's most senior diplomats Ambassador Wu Jianmin. Is China the world's new superpower?

The full interview can be listened via podcast on the following link.
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shen

Senior Member
The SCS disputes are too complex to be framed by one liners, and a quick survey reveal very different agendas from involved nations.
  • US already lost economic supremacy in Asia, so Obama abandoned engagement for containment. That's what the military-focused pivot and the pseudo economic treaty called TPP are all about
  • Vietnam is less interested in economic cooperation, since China has consistently and repeatedly called for joint exploration and profit sharing, but to no avail. Vietnam wants US to balance China, but only to saber ratte for show. Hanoi hasn't figured out how to change the laws of physics and remove its long land border with China
  • Philippines isn't interesting in sharing what it considers its national treasure, and wants the US to take tough actions for them. In addition, it has a presidential election coming up, and all of the front runners want to dial down tensions for better relations with Beijing
  • Australia grew fat on Chinese trade, which accounts for 24% of its exports, and has zero interests in upsetting the gravy train. It would support the US with tough talks, but that's about all. Recent panic over B-1 bomber stationing is pretty good indication of how Canberra feels about being dragged into a great power conflict thousands of miles away from its shores
  • ROK is already in China's orbit, and getting more so with each passing year
  • Taiwan realizes more than anyone independence went the way of the dinosaur, so it just wants to do business and stay out of the dragon's bossom for as long as possible
  • All other Asian countries count China as their top trading partner, and great power conflicts are out of the question
  • Japan is between the devil and the deep blue sea, and it knows it. Its security problems will get bigger as time goes on, and in another decade, it would fall into China's orbit. Abe sees it clearly, and he's doing everything he can to forestall it, but Japan's fate depends on China stumbling or continuing to rise, and hope isn't a good strategy
US has the tougher task, because coordinating a unified front against China is like herding cats, and if things don't change quickly enough, then Beijing solidifies its hold on the SCS. Since no one is willing to risk war by physically stopping Chinese expansion efforts, time is on China's side.


reply in Not China SCS thread.
 

JayBird

Junior Member
The Artist's impression looks nice and pretty but it's an unrealistic fantasy that will never happen unless mankind can control weather or develop force shields like in Star trek. :D
Or SCS have to be stay in perfect weather without hurricane or high tide all the time.
 

jon88

New Member
Registered Member
Actually that pa
The Artist's impression looks nice and pretty but it's an unrealistic fantasy that will never happen unless mankind can control weather or develop force shields like in Star trek. :D
Or SCS have to be stay in perfect weather without hurricane or high tide all the time.
Actually, those parts of SCS (Spratly) are relatively quite free from typhoons. The Paracels are more prone to typhoons.
 

jon88

New Member
Registered Member
Actually that pa
The Artist's impression looks nice and pretty but it's an unrealistic fantasy that will never happen unless mankind can control weather or develop force shields like in Star trek. :D
Or SCS have to be stay in perfect weather without hurricane or high tide all the time.
Actually, those parts of SCS (Spratly) are relatively quite free from typhoons. The Paracels are more prone to typhoons.
 
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