China's SCS Strategy Thread

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Err actually you know what, I have an exam to study for.

As interesting as this discussion is I'm going to bow out of it, although I do feel like I have a better grasp of your views.

I am both refreshed and a little frustrated at your willingness to stand by perceived international norms and rules, and if I had more time I'd be interested in probing how you feel about certain violations made by some countries that have broken some laws or norms, but maybe another time.

I would be interested in further discussing China's perceived geopolitical threats with you in a different thread entirely, but maybe another time.
 
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joshuatree

Captain
The way BBC Radio 4 summarized Ash Carter's speech this morning sounded, if you didn't pay enough attention to whose speech was reported, as a condemnation of 70 years US international conduct. It plays well in some quarters of the World but not in many others.
I have a question. Those 12 nm areas, have they ever been mentioned by China? I have seen it only reported as mentioned by US.

I'll reply here to help keep the threads pertinent.

I've asked the same before, I don't think China specifically said those places have 12 nm territorial sea. But since they use the vague sovereignty replies, the US and allies are also leveraging this to their advantage for the FON argument.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Carter's strong statement against militarization of SCS is directed against China, and that's how it'll be read in China, Japan, and ASEAN states. His stated intent is to foster peaceful and non-coercive resolution of disputes, and the method is to threaten China and make it back down. But, I fear the results will be just the opposite. It's clear Team Xi has think things through and is willing to bear the cost of it's actions, but it's not at all clear Team Obama has.

Responding here to keep threads proper.

These reclamation projects were pointed out that the plans themselves could not have been drawn on a whim. Given the speed and coordination, there's little doubt on that. The US and allies should realize when the green light was given, Chinese authorities would have expected at some point the resistance seen now. So they obviously green lit the projects and are not going to back down. They've already accepted the costs that comes with it.

The other claimants' advantage of having the bigger footholds with military assets on them will be nullified when these installations come online.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Responding here to keep threads proper.

These reclamation projects were pointed out that the plans themselves could not have been drawn on a whim. Given the speed and coordination, there's little doubt on that. The US and allies should realize when the green light was given, Chinese authorities would have expected at some point the resistance seen now. So they obviously green lit the projects and are not going to back down. They've already accepted the costs that comes with it.

The other claimants' advantage of having the bigger footholds with military assets on them will be nullified when these installations come online.
Yeah, that's about how I see it too.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
That is shot across the bow of the US.

If China really wanted to declare an IDIZ, it would have done so. To state that it will take a review on it is a clear message that the ultimate decision can be influenced, and indeed may well be dependent on how others act.

China is telling the US that it has plenty of other cards to play if America tries to further escalate the situation.
 

getready

Senior Member
I see -- so in other words you believe China is deploying military assets to basically bolster its claim (colloquially speaking).
The other part of my question was: do you believe deployment of Chinese military assets to the area and/or onto the islands is also related to its desire to project power into SCS related to greater outreach independent of the territorial dispute issue (defending SLOCs and greater defensive and surveillance capabilities in SCS overall) -- or is it only because China wants to effectively use military muscle to enforce its claim?

I'd also like to note that all nations there do use military assets to bolster their claim, and I think deploying military assets cannot simply be reduced down to "unwillingness to present one's case". They also act as bargaining chips, surveying other nations' activities, maintaining a presence, and of course guarding against foreign incursion.




Well not due to offensiveness per se, but more because on a defence forum I think we can be candid about certain ideas like aggression or lawlessness in a geopolitical or territorial dispute context. Actions can be seen as interest and capability and materially driven, and laws are only there to facilitate and prohibit certain explicit interests and capabilities which are beyond the red line.




Being present at a particular place is an action in itself, and no navy is ever only "present" at a location -- they are always doing some operation or another.




Okay, I don't disagree with that.




I agree that legitimacy of sovereignty regarding the fiery cross reef is an issue as much as it is for all claimants and all disputed islands.
However from what I understand the USN is constantly making FON challenges in the area to many countries as a means of maintaining the right of FON (possibly within another nation's EEZ) rather than specifically one's own territorial claim to a particular island.

Whether the legitimacy of reefs like Fiery Cross have a 12nmi territorial zone OTOH is another matter entirely and I can understand the US considering to challenge it.

Regarding military deploying military assets -- I agree that no message is louder, and China has been seeing and hearing that message broadcasted on all frequencies by US bases and forward deployed assets in westpac, and are now seeking to reach out itself, in response to extenuating circumstances in the area. I can agree with you if you say China doing this is as much of an issue as say, Taiwan deploying C-130Hs or Perry frigates to Taiping island or any other nation deploying marines or aircraft onto their own occupied islands, however I do not agree with you if you believe that China doesn't have as much of a right to deploy military assets onto certain islands (reclaimed or not), as other nations as they all individually see fit.

The ECS ADIZ is also a wholly different matter entirely which was somewhat simpler than the SCS territorial dispute. I was amused at USAF sending B-52s to ECS ADIZ given the whole point of an ADIZ is for nations to have the right to identify potential threats which do not acknowledge the ADIZ.




I think you severely underestimate the potency of military might (and any kind of might) in producing legitimacy. In fact I'd argue the perception of legitimacy only arises when one has such overwhelming power that others cannot help but agree to certain parts of regulations and rules which they might otherwise reject.

But let's ignore all that.

I want to separate the hypothetical deployment of assets into two distinct categories to see whether you believe them to be legitimate.
1: deployment of any military asset by any claimant of the SCS dispute onto their islands. Whether it is a marine garrison or a wing of flankers. In principle, are you equally opposed to anyone doing this?
2: deployment of a naval task force into SCS international waters on a long term duration -- not seeking to invade any other nation or take anyone's islands. The ships will include, say, two DDGs, two FFGs, two AORs, and an amphibious assault ship or carrier. The task force may or may not make port calls and exercises with a few SCS nations in the area, but for most of the time will conduct surveillance and patrol missions in SCS. Some nations may be opposed to the presence of Chinese military vessels there but the taskforce itself won't be raising any kind of military alert zone or what not -- so long as opposing surveillance aircraft or ships remain a sensible distance away there won't be a protest. However it is quite obvious that the ships have great warfighting capability and the capacity for land attack, air patrol, and/or limited amphibious assault capabilities.

If you agree in principle that no claimant should be doing "1" then I would be satisfied with the answer. I am personally of the opinion that in a territorial dispute if all sides have proven unfaithful to each other then they have the right to escalate to a sensible degree, but you don't have to agree to this.
If you acknowledge that China also has the right/legitimacy to do "2" despite the protests of some SCS nations -- which is similar to the kinds of missions that USN does on a regular basis -- then we will also agree.
I'm impressed. This is a very well thought out response to the china critics/bashers.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
This is the Chinese SCS Strategy Page.

Report on and discuss Chinese Strategies here.

We have another thread (as I have said numerous times) for SCS Strategies for other nations. it is in the World Armed Forces Forum. Post and discuss strategies for other nations there.

We also have a separate thread to specifically discuss the individual SCS islands and Basses for China in the Chinese Navy forum.

BE warned, keep away from direct posts, statements or scenarios calling for or discussing direct China vs US conflict.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
I'm not worried about the rhetoric at all. They're just just brightly colored fluff floating at the top for easy public consumption, like rule of law, FoN, UNCLOS, whatever . What matters most is underlying issues hidden beneath at the bottom. This year marks the clearly discernible shift in economic and security order in Asia. US is trying to maintain the old system without China's participation. China is pushing back in both areas showing US that with a non-inclusive arrangement where China is specifically excluded in the regional economic and security architecture, I'll make my own rules where I can so that in consequence there will not be any lasting stability in US led system. You have so many alliance and partners in Asia, so what I am to you? What does it mean to me? What does TPP mean to you, what does it mean to me? These would be the real questions that both sides would need to contend with for decades to come.
Xi Jinping called for a new model of major country relations, making it clear China no longer accepts the old one from Nixon-Mao-Deng era. Obama's response is not accommodation but containment, probably in the believe (hope?) Xi will back down. I think Obama is wrong on both accounts.

President Obama doesn't understand President Xi is a different breed of China leaders, and will likely meet force with force. Efforts to play hardball with Beijing will only harden China's resolve. The second part of Obama's strategy, containment, is a bad choice too, because China's economy works. Obama's Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank debacle showed even our closest allies will put their own national interests ahead of US wishes, and without economic containment, bombs and bullets aren't enough against another big power (Russia/Ukraine anyone?). How it ends is Obama or America's new President will meet Xi Jinping halfway and come to some kind of accommodation. All of the other realistic alternatives are worse for Asia and for the world.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Xi Jinping called for a new model of major country relations, making it clear China no longer accepts the old one from Nixon-Mao-Deng era. Obama's response is not accommodation but containment, probably in the believe (hope?) Xi will back down. I think Obama is wrong on both accounts.

President Obama doesn't understand President Xi is a different breed of China leaders, and will likely meet force with force. Efforts to play hardball with Beijing will only harden China's resolve. The second part of Obama's strategy, containment, is a bad choice too, because China's economy works. Obama's Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank debacle showed even our closest allies will put their own national interests ahead of US wishes, and without economic containment, bombs and bullets aren't enough against another big power (Russia/Ukraine anyone?). How it ends is Obama or America's new President will meet Xi Jinping halfway and come to some kind of accommodation. All of the other realistic alternatives are worse for Asia and for the world.

I doubt President Obama would want to play hardball because he's only got a few more years left on his last term. He and his administration people doesn't want any blemishes on his legacy, especially a historical one. But he will make it seems so by using the press and soft power to appear to be standing up to China or Russia. So who knows.
 
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