AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
And you're forgetting that the old still die during that time.
China's Population Crisis
- Thread starter Delbert
- Start date
Not the new generation newly weds they don't really have that preferance anymore. Back during the 70-80's yes, but after the 90's Chinese couples didn't have much of a preferance between the gender.
They'll probably formally loosen the one-child policy in some major cities but that's at least many years away.
Another recent news item is the 'excess' 24 million men in China who can't find a wife. I think they should encourage some kind match-making ventures for these men with women from certain countries from which China bought a lot of IOUs. Since in Chinese culture, it's the men who pay for marriages expenses,that would put good use to the foreign exchange reserves before they further devalue. Solve the 'lonely men' problem, help with population growth, increase cultural exchanges, put the FX reserves to good use or even seen as a way of repaying those IOUs China is holding. A win-win-win situation isn't it ?
What do you mean many many years way? Its been implemented and encouraged since early 2000, for couples of an only child family of both parties to have 2 kids. Its been allowed in Shanghai and Guangzhou areas already. But many say they prefer to have only 1, since they don't have the financial support of having 2.
solarz
Brigadier
Since the major population boom happened in the 50's, the number of deaths of those born in the 20's and 30's is still much less than the number of children given birth by those born in the 50's and 60's.
You don't need to posit an enforcement failure of the one-child policy to account for the growing population of China in the past 20-30 years.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
If the one-child policy was implemented in the early 80s, what happened in the 50s doesn't really matter. If the alarmists are using the literal meaning of a one-child policy, then there should signs of population decrease being seen now.
I don't know about you guys, but I am staying local to my region. I don't want to waste my time explaining everything to my wife whenever I flip open the menu. That and I feel comfortable and familiar, not stuck with just English.
Anyway.
Although the current generation of people probably doesn't care about their kid's sex, you still have to account for their parents, I am sure you guys know how a nagging parent can be.
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Well, the post-80s generation, are in their late 20s at the oldest.
Their grandparents, say in their 70s, 80s, might be on the brink, but that's now. These old people, who probably have some 3-8 kids, would easily be outnumbered by their grandkids.
My point is, I don't think we have given enough time for the original rules' effect to be felt yet. And with the better health care, the elders are becoming a drag longer too. Once generation 2 comes around(around now) and the grandies still exiting, we could see a change in demographics.
That and I feel comfortable and familiar, not stuck with just English.Anyway.
Hmm? Isn't a shortage of available females in China the issue here? I mean sure, you can marry across the border, but I don't think many of the men we are talking about are proficient at a second non-local language, unless we are talking about the folks in Manchuria and Mountainous South. And there certainly isn't a lot of those.
I think he meant that interracial marriages would help China expand and strengthen relationships.
Although the current generation of people probably doesn't care about their kid's sex, you still have to account for their parents, I am sure you guys know how a nagging parent can be.
Well, I am assuming you went to Berkeley... although he probably wasn't teaching yet when you could've been there. Tataki ring a bell?
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Well, the post-80s generation, are in their late 20s at the oldest.
Their grandparents, say in their 70s, 80s, might be on the brink, but that's now. These old people, who probably have some 3-8 kids, would easily be outnumbered by their grandkids.
My point is, I don't think we have given enough time for the original rules' effect to be felt yet. And with the better health care, the elders are becoming a drag longer too. Once generation 2 comes around(around now) and the grandies still exiting, we could see a change in demographics.
How would you deal with a huge aeging society?
Even with an effective pension system, do you think the younger generations which are lesser can be able to sustain the funding for a large and aeging population?
Try to look at the pension system of countries who are having troubles due to large proportions of older people.
Secondly, I hope everybody was aware that in most cases an only child tend to become spoiled (becoming little prince and princesses). If that happens, how can the new generation Chinese still maintain their competitiveness in terms of their character, attitude, the way they look at life, or how do they face their challenges.
thirdly, by the time China's population starts to decline, do you think people will still prefer to have many kids like before? Look at Europe now and before, even if the gvoernment gives incentives for having more children they still prefer to have less. Do you think Europes population still had chances of recovering to its previous growth? Same also with Japan look at their demographics.
Even with an effective pension system, do you think the younger generations which are lesser can be able to sustain the funding for a large and aeging population?
Try to look at the pension system of countries who are having troubles due to large proportions of older people.
Secondly, I hope everybody was aware that in most cases an only child tend to become spoiled (becoming little prince and princesses). If that happens, how can the new generation Chinese still maintain their competitiveness in terms of their character, attitude, the way they look at life, or how do they face their challenges.
thirdly, by the time China's population starts to decline, do you think people will still prefer to have many kids like before? Look at Europe now and before, even if the gvoernment gives incentives for having more children they still prefer to have less. Do you think Europes population still had chances of recovering to its previous growth? Same also with Japan look at their demographics.
An aging population is a problem in many countries, but the only historical experience involves developed countries, and therefore, China is always compared to Japan or various European countries on this question.
I don't think the comparison is valid. As a developing country that still has a lot of room to grow, China is different. Its productivity is rising very fast, and this will still be the case when the population begins to age (assuming nothing is done to forestall this).
Take agriculture, for example. Some 55% of the population in China is still employed in agriculture. For comparison sake, in the US, less than 5% is employed in agriculture, and the quantity of American agricultural production is comparable to China's! It will be hard for China to achieve the same level of efficiency, because her large population means China has to use all available land, and not just the best land as in the US. But if 10% of China can grow all the food it needs, then you have an additional 45% which can be utilized. Surely, some of this extra strength can go towards supporting the old people. None of the developed countries can claim this added "reserve".
I don't think the comparison is valid. As a developing country that still has a lot of room to grow, China is different. Its productivity is rising very fast, and this will still be the case when the population begins to age (assuming nothing is done to forestall this).
Take agriculture, for example. Some 55% of the population in China is still employed in agriculture. For comparison sake, in the US, less than 5% is employed in agriculture, and the quantity of American agricultural production is comparable to China's! It will be hard for China to achieve the same level of efficiency, because her large population means China has to use all available land, and not just the best land as in the US. But if 10% of China can grow all the food it needs, then you have an additional 45% which can be utilized. Surely, some of this extra strength can go towards supporting the old people. None of the developed countries can claim this added "reserve".
You are definitely right Red Moon.
But you should not forget, if 60% of your population was already in the age of retiring or near retiring.
Do you think you can still maintain such productivity?
Remember, by that time China will still posses the previous number of factories it had, who will be manning it by then? How about the Health care? Where will they get all the necessary nurses to take care of the old people? (Since the younger are few, surely nurses will also be scarce or not enough)
Back to the same old story, they had to hire migrants from abroad to fill in that gap.
Yes, China is still indeed a developing country, but do you think by 2050 they were still a developing country? And by that time, their population would already be aeging..
No worries on overpopulation. Why? I am living in the Philippines and it has a population density of almost 800 per sq. mile, while China only had 360+ per sq. mile. But I can see in my country, there are only selected places which are indeed overcrowded (The Greater Metro Manila), but the rest of the places still had a lot of room for people to settle. What does that mean? A proper utilization of land, and settling the people well, developing other regions, can definitely solve the problem of over crowding.
Secondly, as you have said, improving the efficiency of the agriculture, it is really a must, if China achieved that one day, do you think they would encounter difficulties in feeding their people?
The problem in my country where I lived, was agriculture was being ignored, that is why the efficiency of food production was totally terrible.
But you should not forget, if 60% of your population was already in the age of retiring or near retiring.
Do you think you can still maintain such productivity?
Remember, by that time China will still posses the previous number of factories it had, who will be manning it by then? How about the Health care? Where will they get all the necessary nurses to take care of the old people? (Since the younger are few, surely nurses will also be scarce or not enough)
Back to the same old story, they had to hire migrants from abroad to fill in that gap.
Yes, China is still indeed a developing country, but do you think by 2050 they were still a developing country? And by that time, their population would already be aeging..
No worries on overpopulation. Why? I am living in the Philippines and it has a population density of almost 800 per sq. mile, while China only had 360+ per sq. mile. But I can see in my country, there are only selected places which are indeed overcrowded (The Greater Metro Manila), but the rest of the places still had a lot of room for people to settle. What does that mean? A proper utilization of land, and settling the people well, developing other regions, can definitely solve the problem of over crowding.
Secondly, as you have said, improving the efficiency of the agriculture, it is really a must, if China achieved that one day, do you think they would encounter difficulties in feeding their people?
The problem in my country where I lived, was agriculture was being ignored, that is why the efficiency of food production was totally terrible.
no actually you have to worry about overpopulation. the problem that comes with a super large population is not simply an amplified version of the problems a less populated society would face. there is a book written by scowcroft and brzezinsky, in it brzezinsky said that he went to China and had dinner with Jiang Zemin, and he asked him what is the biggest problem that China faces...out of all the possible choices you'd have like corruption, pollution, and wealth gap, Jiang said "too many people", and brzezinsky agreed (remember this guy is a geostrategist). marxist theory says that quantitative change up to a certain level induces qualitative change, this is the same thing, you cannot simply say "well this country have a similar pop. density so China should be just fine".
solarz
Brigadier
This comparison of average population density is hugely misleading. You're forgetting the fact that immense parts of China's territory are extremely difficult to settle: the Tibetan plateau, the Gobi Desert, the loess "Huangtu" plateau, to name a few.
Also, a large population entails more than just an issue of living space. A large population requires food, energy, outputs pollution, and needs an economy that can integrate the work force. All of these are enormous challenges to overcome.