China's overland Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road Thread

[timepass]

After reviewing all the above posts ... again I will repeat my earlier statement....

In the current dynamics & geopolitical scenario in the region India's existence is quickly diminishing. Hence it's on Indians rather then China or Pakistan to pursue them if they want to take the benefits of the CPEC/OBOR.

It's imperative for Indians to review their following policies for stability/peace/harmony in the region:

1- Refrain act as a Policeman in the region.
2- Try to counter China.
3- Resolve the Kashmir Issue (core issue in the region).
4- Avoid interfering in small countries i.e. Nepal/Bhutan/Bangladesh/Srilanka & many more.

Furthermore, to be part of any other project Indians have to play their cards smartly not like Chabhar where they were banking on Iran & Russia & both joined CPEC & the project felt a part.

 

[KIENCHIN]

After reviewing all the above posts ... again I will repeat my earlier statement....

In the current dynamics & geopolitical scenario in the region India's existence is quickly diminishing. Hence it's on Indians rather then China or Pakistan to pursue them if they want to take the benefits of the CPEC/OBOR.

It's imperative for Indians to review their following policies for stability/peace/harmony in the region:

1- Refrain act as a Policeman in the region.
2- Try to counter China.
3- Resolve the Kashmir Issue (core issue in the region).
4- Avoid interfering in small countries i.e. Nepal/Bhutan/Bangladesh/Srilanka & many more.

Furthermore, to be part of any other project Indians have to play their cards smartly not like Chabhar where they were banking on Iran & Russia & both joined CPEC & the project felt a part.

Unfoturnately you and I know that will never happen, without going into it in details any further for fear of being out of line and get a rap on the knuckles by moderators LOL

 

[dingyibvs]

So, it seems simple invitations aren't getting it done. If China really wants India in CPEC, then it will have to be more creative and sweeten the pot for New Delhi, while not upsetting Islamabad too much. Sounds like a job for China's best diplomats, yes?

If you have a 2 and a 7, off suit, in your hand, do you keep betting hoping that you'd get lucky, or do you just admit you got a bad hand and fold? You say it's cheap to try, but is it still cheap when you need to employ your best diplomats, presumably armed with things of value as enticement, when those resources could be used elsewhere?

The timing isn't right, so fold for now and strike when you've got a better hand.

 

[SampanViking]

So from reading the above, it seems that some people believe that the DPRK would be supine at the receiving end of "Surgical Strikes" against its Strategic Weapons facilities right?

 

[dingyibvs]

So from reading the above, it seems that some people believe that the DPRK would be supine at the receiving end of "Surgical Strikes" against its Strategic Weapons facilities right?

Shhhhhh, let it develop, my plan is still possible!

 

[AndrewS]

My response to yours is:

1. India knows all it is likely able to do is to delay CPEC and make it more expensive on time, money, and resources. The end is the same, and CPEC will be successfully implemented, no matter how much hassle New Delhi causes
2. India knows it's probably better off being inside CPEC, where it can affect some policies to better suit its interests, and also to keep a closer eye on its rivals
3. India joined the AIIB, even though it was suspicious of Chinese dominance in the bank, so CPEC wouldn't be the first China-sponsored project it joins
4. India is part of the BRICS and a member of the BRICS Development Bank, so it already has dealings with China in a multi-lateral economic enterprise
5. Beijing's history and modus operandi is inclusion, and there are no good reasons to expect it to behave differently vis-a-vis CPEC

If that's so, then you'll need to explain why India would be less suspicious of China as partner in the China-lead BRI than the China-lead CPEC.


Taking your message at face value, it argues for China to put its best diplomats on getting India aboard the CPEC train, while at the same time reassure Pakistan it is still China's special friend. The reason is because, on balance, it's in everyone's interests to have a satiated India than an aggrieved one. Plus, the cake is big enough for everyone to have a piece.

CPEC by its very nature is going to benefit Pakistan much more than India. The India-Pakistan border is basically desert plus disputed border areas, which limits opportunities at this time.

Plus India is always going to feel ganged up upon because it will frequently be 2 versus 1.

So inviting India to CPEC is a stretch too far at this point.

---
India joined the AIIB, because China has voluntarily submitted itself to a common set of rules and limited its voting rights in the organisation. There are a lot of voices in AIIB.

BRICs Bank is the same, where there are other voices at the table.

India will have to be dealt with specially, precisely because it is much bigger than anyone else in region, and holds a geographically central position in OBOR

So a 1 on 1 forum between China-India is required, not least to satisfy India's sense of place. And the plans discussed at this forum would naturally focus on Indian development/connectivity. BCIM is probably the first step because the closest part of populated China is Yunnan province which borders Myanmar, and can serve as a neutral buffer state between China and India, to allay Indian suspicions on direct connectivity.

Note that India has an automatic suspicion of anything Chinese because the media portrays China as being aggressive/nefarious and launching the Sino-Indian war

But the crazy thing is that the Times of India published a special report a few years ago, saying that the still classified Henderson-Brooks report actually places most of the blame on India for starting a war that it knew it couldn't win and which was incompetently run when it started.

So yes, China does need to make a special effort with India given the situation, but a rational India should recognise that it is in its best interests to work more closely with China.

However, the main issue is that the Indian government is not noted for being particularly rational or competent, so it will take time.

 

[Blackstone]

If you have a 2 and a 7, off suit, in your hand, do you keep betting hoping that you'd get lucky, or do you just admit you got a bad hand and fold? You say it's cheap to try, but is it still cheap when you need to employ your best diplomats, presumably armed with things of value as enticement, when those resources could be used elsewhere?

The timing isn't right, so fold for now and strike when you've got a better hand.

I don't agree with your statement. I say that because nations and their interests are continuous, and must be properly managed at all times to limit problems and exploit opportunities. Imperial China found out the hard way what happens when the wealthy and powerful Qing Empire ceased to pay close attention to the outside world, and properly manage titanic forces in flux. China loses nothing by reaching out to India, and could gain much. Enticing India into the big tent (BRI, CPEC, et al) and not upsetting Pakistan too much is beneficial to China in the South Asia and Indian Ocean regions.

 

[Blackstone]

CPEC by its very nature is going to benefit Pakistan much more than India. The India-Pakistan border is basically desert plus disputed border areas, which limits opportunities at this time.

Plus India is always going to feel ganged up upon because it will frequently be 2 versus 1.

So inviting India to CPEC is a stretch too far at this point.

The calculus for China isn't if Pakistan or India gains more from CPEC, it is reducing or eliminating Indian suspision and hostility to it. CPEC is therefore not a bridge too far, if China could accomplish the twin objective of gaining Indian support by making it a stakeholder, while reassuring Pakistan it's still a special friend. Not easy to be sure, but good outweighs bad if it could be done.

India joined the AIIB, because China has voluntarily submitted itself to a common set of rules and limited its voting rights in the organisation. There are a lot of voices in AIIB.

BRICs Bank is the same, where there are other voices at the table.

India agreed to be a founding member of AIIB long before it and all other participants, including China, knew how the bank would be run. It was a work in progress, even after UK and many EU countries joined the bank. India joined because it was in its interests to do so, and that's the bottom line.

As for BRICS Bank, China's economy is multiples bigger than the rest of the group combined. The bank wouldn't and can't do anything Beijing opposes, even if it doesn't have an actual veto. China would likely run the bank to benefit the entire group, not because it can't strong-arm the rest, but because it is currently in its interests to support alternatives to Breton Woods institutions.

India will have to be dealt with specially, precisely because it is much bigger than anyone else in region, and holds a geographically central position in OBOR

Correct China needs to deal with India with special care. Incorrect India is geographically central to OBOR, because it is not. India isn't involved in the Belt part right now, and China is demonstrating abilities to bypass India on the Road portion. It's a hassle to be sure, and China's better off with a friendly India than a hostile one, but it can be done. India can be a big part of the BRI, but it's a case of India needs China more than the other way around.

So a 1 on 1 forum between China-India is required, not least to satisfy India's sense of place. And the plans discussed at this forum would naturally focus on Indian development/connectivity. BCIM is probably the first step because the closest part of populated China is Yunnan province which borders Myanmar, and can serve as a neutral buffer state between China and India, to allay Indian suspicions on direct connectivity.

Note that India has an automatic suspicion of anything Chinese because the media portrays China as being aggressive/nefarious and launching the Sino-Indian war

But the crazy thing is that the Times of India published a special report a few years ago, saying that the still classified Henderson-Brooks report actually places most of the blame on India for starting a war that it knew it couldn't win and which was incompetently run when it started.

Mutual suspicions are good reasons to engage diplomatically and economically to manage them. That's why China reached out to India for involvement in BRI and CPEC. That's also the reason China will continue to try, in spite of initial Indian rebuff.

So yes, China does need to make a special effort with India given the situation, but a rational India should recognise that it is in its best interests to work more closely with China.

However, the main issue is that the Indian government is not noted for being particularly rational or competent, so it will take time.

We could end our back and forth by asking and answering one simple question: is it in China's interests to involve India in BRI, including CPEC? If the answer is "yes," the China will continue to try. So, I ask you to answer is it in China's interests to bring India into the BRI big tent?

 

[dingyibvs]

I don't agree with your statement. I say that because nations and their interests are continuous, and must be properly managed at all times to limit problems and exploit opportunities. Imperial China found out the hard way what happens when the wealthy and powerful Qing Empire ceased to pay close attention to the outside world, and properly manage titanic forces in flux. China loses nothing by reaching out to India, and could gain much. Enticing India into the big tent (BRI, CPEC, et al) and not upsetting Pakistan too much is beneficial to China in the South Asia and Indian Ocean regions.

You didn't address my statement at all. I said China does lose something (diplomats, enticements) in reaching out to India, so why spend it on a bad hand when you can invest them in other places?

 

[AndrewS]

You didn't address my statement at all. I said China does lose something (diplomats, enticements) in reaching out to India, so why spend it on a bad hand when you can invest them in other places?

Simply put, China has a surplus of diplomats and enticements, so reaching out to India is not a big stretch.

However, it is mainly India's loss if they don't get accept the invitation.