China's overland Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road Thread

[Blackstone]

And what makes you to come to that conclusion...

Here are some reasons for my rationale-

• Cooperative members provide gains for the entire CPEC partnership. After all, gains are the reasons for the venture in the first place
  
• An anti-CPEC India could cause diplomatic problems for China, Pakistan, and other interested parties
• An anti-CPEC India could cause or exacerbate social problems in Balochistan
  
• An anti-CPEC India could cause or exacerbate security problems in Balochistan
  
• Troubles in Balochistan might not be contained in that region, and could spread elsewhere
  
• Troubles in Balochistan might harm China's and other countries' investments in CPEC

 

[timepass]

Here are some reasons for my rationale-

• Cooperative members provide gains for the entire CPEC partnership. After all, gains are the reasons for the venture in the first place
  
• An anti-CPEC India could cause diplomatic problems for China, Pakistan, and other interested parties
• An anti-CPEC India could cause or exacerbate social problems in Balochistan
  
• An anti-CPEC India could cause or exacerbate security problems in Balochistan
  
• Troubles in Balochistan might not be contained in that region, and could spread elsewhere
  
• Troubles in Balochistan might harm China's and other countries' investments in CPEC

Below is what I already replied in your above context....

Geopolitical scenario in the region has been changed to 360 degrees in last few years & Indian think tanks should reconsider their way forward or soon they will be in isolation (IMO - they are already in).

Now world is also giving the importance to the notion that this region can be looked without India. Time is running out very fast for Indian to decide their fate before its too late (Anti Pakistan or to some extent anti China strategy cant be sale anymore)....

 

[Blackstone]

Below is what I already replied in your above context....

Problem is, your reply doesn't address 1) are current Balochistan conditions set in stone and can't be changed with diplomacy? And 2) how will changing Indian behavior by giving it a better way forward as a stakeholder in China's regional and global economic integration harm Chinese and Pakistani interests?

 

[AndrewS]

That's why I argue China and Pakistan should create a way for India to become a CPEC stakeholder. Involved nations are better off if India climbs into the boat and share in its success, than staying outside taking shots at it.

Inviting India into CPEC is just a step too far for a suspicious India.

At this stage, a separate India-China framework is the only feasible solution, which is what is being proposed by China under OBOR.

India is even stalling on BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) because they're worried about the North Eastern states.

The North Eastern states in India have semi-active insurgencies because of an incompetant and neglectful government in Delhi.

There's even open musing that they would be better off under Chinese rule, as they would at least get roads, railways, schools, doctors, electricity, etc

Instead, all they see is an Indian state that takes from them whilst giving nothing back

 

[timepass]

Inviting India into CPEC is just a step too far for a suspicious India.

At this stage, a separate India-China framework is the only feasible solution, which is what is being proposed by China under OBOR.

India is even stalling on BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) because they're worried about the North Eastern states.

The North Eastern states in India have semi-active insurgencies because of an incompetant and neglectful government in Delhi.

There's even open musing that they would be better off under Chinese rule, as they would get roads, railways, schools, doctors, electricity, etc

Or otherwise Indians should settle Kashmir issue to soften up the region & creates harmony which involves not only Pakistan but China as well.

 

[Blackstone]

Inviting India into CPEC is just a step too far for a suspicious India.

My response to yours is:

1. India knows all it is likely able to do is to delay CPEC and make it more expensive on time, money, and resources. The end is the same, and CPEC will be successfully implemented, no matter how much hassle New Delhi causes
2. India knows it's probably better off being inside CPEC, where it can affect some policies to better suit its interests, and also to keep a closer eye on its rivals
3. India joined the AIIB, even though it was suspicious of Chinese dominance in the bank, so CPEC wouldn't be the first China-sponsored project it joins
4. India is part of the BRICS and a member of the BRICS Development Bank, so it already has dealings with China in a multi-lateral economic enterprise
5. Beijing's history and modus operandi is inclusion, and there are no good reasons to expect it to behave differently vis-a-vis CPEC

At this stage, a separate India-China framework is the only feasible solution, which is what is being proposed by China under OBOR.

If that's so, then you'll need to explain why India would be less suspicious of China as partner in the China-lead BRI than the China-lead CPEC.

India is even stalling on BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) because they're worried about the North Eastern states.

The North Eastern states in India have semi-active insurgencies because of an incompetant and neglectful government in Delhi.

There's even open musing that they would be better off under Chinese rule, as they would at least get roads, railways, schools, doctors, electricity, etc

Instead, all they see is an Indian state that takes from them whilst giving nothing back

Taking your message at face value, it argues for China to put its best diplomats on getting India aboard the CPEC train, while at the same time reassure Pakistan it is still China's special friend. The reason is because, on balance, it's in everyone's interests to have a satiated India than an aggrieved one. Plus, the cake is big enough for everyone to have a piece.

 

[delft]

China has repeated the invitation to India at every occasion. Ambassador Bhadrakumar has been complaining about the stupidity of South Block for years but he is a little hopeful see this recent blog post:

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[Blackstone]

China has repeated the invitation to India at every occasion. Ambassador Bhadrakumar has been complaining about the stupidity of South Block for years but he is a little hopeful see this recent blog post:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So, it seems simple invitations aren't getting it done. If China really wants India in CPEC, then it will have to be more creative and sweeten the pot for New Delhi, while not upsetting Islamabad too much. Sounds like a job for China's best diplomats, yes?

 

[delft]

So, it seems simple invitations aren't getting it done. If China really wants India in CPEC, then it will have to be more creative and sweeten the pot for New Delhi, while not upsetting Islamabad too much. Sounds like a job for China's best diplomats, yes?

I understand from Ambassador Bhadrakumar that the Chinese agree with you.

 

[Blackstone]

I understand from Ambassador Bhadrakumar that the Chinese agree with you.

Well then, it's not a reach for me to say the good ambassador is a wise man.