China's overland Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road Thread
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
shen
Senior Member
The key theme of China's vision is "win-win cooperation" rather than zero-sum game.
Take for example China's plan for high speed railroad in central Asia. Soviet era transportation network obviously tied central Asian countries to Russia, thus funneling trade and resources in one direction. China obviously is keen to develop the transportation infrastructure between its western provinces and central Asia, in order to facilitate economic development and create more economic opportunities in places like Xinjiang. Central Asian countries like that too because access to China's market help them hedge against over dependence on Russia.
Now at first sight in may seems like Russia wouldn't be happy to lose influence in its former central Asian republics. That's angle some Western commentators like to play up. In relative term, yes, Russia may lose some influence as China makes some gain. In order to placate Russian concern, China's plan is to build the high speed railroad all the way to Moscow. Thus Russia also get to benefit from the infrastructure upgrade in its own territory as well as to central Asia. In this way, Russia's Euroasia vision and China's Silk Road vision are complementary rather than competitive. Compare this to the zero sum NATO encroachment on Russia's western border and it becomes obvious why Russia would rather engage with China.
Take for example China's plan for high speed railroad in central Asia. Soviet era transportation network obviously tied central Asian countries to Russia, thus funneling trade and resources in one direction. China obviously is keen to develop the transportation infrastructure between its western provinces and central Asia, in order to facilitate economic development and create more economic opportunities in places like Xinjiang. Central Asian countries like that too because access to China's market help them hedge against over dependence on Russia.
Now at first sight in may seems like Russia wouldn't be happy to lose influence in its former central Asian republics. That's angle some Western commentators like to play up. In relative term, yes, Russia may lose some influence as China makes some gain. In order to placate Russian concern, China's plan is to build the high speed railroad all the way to Moscow. Thus Russia also get to benefit from the infrastructure upgrade in its own territory as well as to central Asia. In this way, Russia's Euroasia vision and China's Silk Road vision are complementary rather than competitive. Compare this to the zero sum NATO encroachment on Russia's western border and it becomes obvious why Russia would rather engage with China.
Wolfie said
This is the nub of it. This is not about threatening force to opening the Silk Roads (that would be like waving a gun in the Bank to force being able to make a deposit).
It is to be able to say to reassure smaller and vulnerable partners about being protected from the consequences of joining the project and that reassurance being credible.
It is the sense of credibility that is a key aspect of this and the difference between well intentioned wishful thinking and the launch of a definitive action plan. China now confident that it can give this assurance and that it will be seen as credible. This of itself is a major milestone in China's military modernisation and development. In short the modern PLA is now a reality as a 1st Tier military force.
Just a quick word on the oversupply of construction and infrastructure inside of China. It is a yes and no situation. Overall it is actually a no, as there are still hundreds of millions of rural residents that need to make the transition to urban resident status. These numbers are more than sufficient to absorb many existing oversupply and demand many times more to be built in the coming decades.
This however is only part of the picture and what is missing is the underlying economic forces to facilitate the urbanisation of the remaining rural population, in a way that is meaningful, sustainable and of course distributed throughout all regions and provinces.
The New Silk roads are exactly the process required to keep and sustain that growth to allow China to build an economy big enough to absorb and raise all its people.
The same pattern will be repeated along the Silk Roads as the document talks about developing and joining up local regional hubs; both along its length and adjacent to the main corridors.
In short key hubs for onward transmission along the Roads will also become key development hubs for lateral extension into the hinterlands of the countries through which the roads pass..
In short, these will be roads for everyone and not just fenced off highways that the locals can only look at.
PS I understand that Taiwan has applied under the title of Chinese Taipei to join the AIIB.
This is the nub of it. This is not about threatening force to opening the Silk Roads (that would be like waving a gun in the Bank to force being able to make a deposit).
It is to be able to say to reassure smaller and vulnerable partners about being protected from the consequences of joining the project and that reassurance being credible.
It is the sense of credibility that is a key aspect of this and the difference between well intentioned wishful thinking and the launch of a definitive action plan. China now confident that it can give this assurance and that it will be seen as credible. This of itself is a major milestone in China's military modernisation and development. In short the modern PLA is now a reality as a 1st Tier military force.
Just a quick word on the oversupply of construction and infrastructure inside of China. It is a yes and no situation. Overall it is actually a no, as there are still hundreds of millions of rural residents that need to make the transition to urban resident status. These numbers are more than sufficient to absorb many existing oversupply and demand many times more to be built in the coming decades.
This however is only part of the picture and what is missing is the underlying economic forces to facilitate the urbanisation of the remaining rural population, in a way that is meaningful, sustainable and of course distributed throughout all regions and provinces.
The New Silk roads are exactly the process required to keep and sustain that growth to allow China to build an economy big enough to absorb and raise all its people.
The same pattern will be repeated along the Silk Roads as the document talks about developing and joining up local regional hubs; both along its length and adjacent to the main corridors.
In short key hubs for onward transmission along the Roads will also become key development hubs for lateral extension into the hinterlands of the countries through which the roads pass..
In short, these will be roads for everyone and not just fenced off highways that the locals can only look at.
PS I understand that Taiwan has applied under the title of Chinese Taipei to join the AIIB.
Looking at the list of founding members and those who have applied to be a part of the AIIB I see some non-participants notable because one would think they would want to participate due to their geographic location:
- Turkmenistan
- Afghanistan
- Iran
- Also not a single African country signed up if we consider Egypt being really a part of the Middle East.
Perhaps the US position was heeded by more than just Japan.
- Turkmenistan
- Afghanistan
- Iran
- Also not a single African country signed up if we consider Egypt being really a part of the Middle East.
Perhaps the US position was heeded by more than just Japan.
Regarding Iran, I read somewhere they weren't allowed to join from the start. Something about giving an air of credibility for the nascent organization, or some such thing. I'll have to find a link for that.
broadsword
Brigadier
broadsword
Brigadier
A short course on the background to the formation of AIIB. Pt 1
broadsword
Brigadier
Pt 2.
I think it is about Iran being under UN sanctions. But it is likely to be a valued member soon.