China's military is wasteful

Roger604 said:

I'm not sure how your post is responsive to my post. I watched the whole lecture.

Are you saying that this lecture was released to hint to the rest of the world that these ideas have become mainstream PLA doctrine... and so we will likely see more personnel cuts as PLA adopts a more flexible nuclear doctrine?

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No, the audience of the released video are for the domestic mass, and it proves to be very successful PR event - in the past week it's among the hottest topic in Chinese military loop although no public medias mentioned it- that's why you posted the topic here. And he is not talking about PLA's effciency and how to save the money, to think that way is too narrow mind.

What he talks has nothing new actually, everybody with basic military sense understands it. And it confirms PLA war doctine has changed in past years, as outsiders already see the signs of changing. Something still in debate in the PLA will not go to public like this, agreement has been reached. To make a big change in military doctrine like this, you need some conditions not just wishful thinking:

1) You have the technology ready, we see DF-31, DF-31A, DF-41, 094... mentioned all the time these years

2) You have the money - the financial means ready, I don't think it's a problem for China

3) You have the new doctrine ready, or the will to use it - that's what he is talking. The not-first-use policy is dead for PLA now, and they tell the Chinese public its death. The only thing left is to tell the world, well they need a good timing to do that as I said, or just wait until the last minute.

And he did mention the further cut of troops size, if you really watch that carefully.

Even the notorious China belittling/bashing Economist has got the news now that PLA is fielding already six DF-31 but I still wonder whether those wily spin masters turned journalists lost a degree of magnitude somewhere.

As for PLA troop reductions:
The army would remain a massive force even after a further reduction by 200000 soldiers and the new army has expanded her mobility and firepower considerably during the last five years. Probably the leadership wants to retain a force capable to overwhelm potential enemy forces positioned in neighboring countries quickly and decisively.

In my view scenarios like:

1. An intervention on the korean peninsula.

2. A campaign in cahoots with Russia to clear central asia from foreign interference.

3. A preventive action against certain south east asian states conspiring with the US against vital chinese interests (e.g. collaboration with the US in choking off China's energy/raw material supply).

would in every case require a massive ground force capable of absorbing severe casualties and nevertheless securing all necessary objectives. In brief: PLA groundforces should be able to afford losing a battle but would regardlessly win the war notwithstanding heavy casualties. :nono:

Actually the Chinese military played with the idea of using a nuke tactically. But it was more of them trying to take advantage of the EMP to disable enemy electronics at sea than the actual destructive power of a direct nuclear strike.

Its because of the hard boiled hard core in the PLA that's the reason why China's nuclear arsenal is entrusted and controlled by a unique branch of the military called the 2nd Artillery, which is not answerable to the PLA but to the CMC directly.

That was made clear by the commander in charge of 2nd Artillery to Donald Rumsfeld when Rumsfeld visited China and asked about that issue about that Gen. Zhang issue.

crobato said:

Its because of the hard boiled hard core in the PLA that's the reason why China's nuclear arsenal is entrusted and controlled by a unique branch of the military called the 2nd Artillery, which is not answerable to the PLA but to the CMC directly.

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That's the case for every nuclear power, and that's why the small code suitcase always follows Bush or Putin, wherever they go. The use of nuclear weapons have to go through the highest authority, even the tactic one.

But for China, I think you are brainwashed in CDF, that colonal guy is reall a fool. Actually in early age Chinese nuclear weapon control was pretty loose, like it was not just Mao, but Marshal LIn Biao and premier Zhou could also decide to use it. Mao was the guy who doesn't care much these "little things". It was premier Zhou that decided to set off China's first nucelar bomb test, not Mao.

Another thing, 2nd Artillery is not a nuclear force, but a rocket force, the name was given by premier Zhou Enlai. 2nd Artillery operates the conventional missile weapons as well. As for nuclear weapons, the airbone nuke bombs, nuclear mines, etc, are not controlled by 2nd Artillery. As I said, don't believe CDF, that guy is a plain fool.

Who is that 'colonial' guy?

crobato said:

Who is that 'colonial' guy?

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The owner of the CDF, and he called himself colonel. I see what you said is exactly copy of his words.

But he doesn't even know that the first batch of Chinese nuclear weapons were deployed in PLAAF, 2nd Artillery was setup very late. During the highest tension of Sino-Soviet conflict, Q-5s were loaded with H-bomb and pilot and stayed at the runway, ready to take off at any minute.

Colonel Yu is not the owner of the CDF at least to my impression. That would be Xinhui (Andy), Section 8 (he is a US Marine I believe) and Totenkopf. I think the Colonel is one of the founding members.

Yes I heard that the Q-5s can be loaded with nuclear bombs, but were they actually done so? Back in those days, the PLAAF is riddled with plane defections to Taiwan and I kind of doubt they would be so trusted with a nuke. Furthermore, if the PLA was following Soviet doctrine, any nuclear bomb cannot be armed by a single person alone, and it would require also the political officer with the commanding officer. The Q-5 is a single seat aircraft and cannot arm a nuclear bomb if such procedures are in place. Thus I view this with skepticism. It's more likely the H-6s or H-5s were the bomb carriers.

I have never heard or seen the actual PLA having tactical nukes. And yes the 2nd Artillery also has conventional warheads, but with China having 400 warheads, I am betting those warheads take up a large portion of the 2nd Artillery's rockets.

Also the 2nd Artillery stops with the DF-15 being their smallest rocket. The most numerous missile with conventional warhead is the DF-9 aka M-11, and its various mods. The 900 or so missiles that are aimed at Taiwan are mostly DF-9. The DF-9 are controlled directly by the PLA alone, and not the 2nd Artillery. The 2nd Artillery is actually a separate rocket force from those of the PLA.

There are boundaries set on the PLA and the other branches. For example when it comes to air defense, the PLA is up to the HQ-7 and the Tor M-1. However, when it comes to the larger SAMs, like the HQ-12/KS-1A, the HQ-2 series, the HQ-9 and the S-300 series, its all under the PLAAF.

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Mod edit: What did I just said about backtalks about others?? Lets just stick to the point shall we?
Golly

As for your post about PLAAF and nuclear weapons:

A specially modified Q-5 tested a live nuclear weapon (freefall bomb, 25kt) in 1972 and probably a small number of tactical bombs was introduced in the mid 70's. The dangerous level of tension with the USSR declined after the death of Mao in 1976 and after 1977 a war appeared to be at least not imminent (...indeed this was an important precondition for Deng's decision to punish Vietnam in 1979). Perhaps the ´special unit´handling the freefall bombs for Q-5 was deactivated after a few years but of course we need more information to confirm this.

The problem of PLAAF defections was indeed very serious as you have correctly mentioned but the worst period was between 1982-87 and more pilots defected to South Korea than to Taiwan! Several J-7, J-6 and a H-5 bomber were flown by their pilots to ROK but the most serious incident was a violent mutiny on a PLAN missile boat escaping to Incheon in 1985. Even korean civilians were killed by a crash landing H-5 and Seoul approached Beijing with the help of the US for talks about the pressing problem.

(There were also a couple of defections to Taiwan (pilots were lured with a high money prize by KMT! ) but since PLAAF based only the most reliable regiments vis a vis the island there were fewer incidents than in the north.)