China's Greatest Fear: Dead and Buried Like the Soviet Union (Closed)

suby68 said:

In its economic preformance China has in today not even come close to the former Soviet Union on a per capita level. Around 1970 the income gap between an average Russian and an average American was far less than what it is today between an average Chinese and an American.

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When was the last time the Soviet Union had the world's largest GDP in PPP terms? Being the largest manufacturer of physical goods in the world? The largest automobile manufacturer and market in the world? One of the largest ship builder in the world? The largest trading nation in the world? By far the largest steel and concrete manufacturer and user in the world? The answer is no for all these questions for the Soviet Union, and all yes for China. Here is an example of China's current manufacturing prowess and economic scale for you: in November (last month), China made 3.01 million autos, which is equivalent to an annualized production rate of 36 millions. In comparison, the highest annual auto production rate ever in the U.S. was about 18 million units. China can easily triple its military spending to rival that of the America's, and it will still count less than 6% of her GDP. The Soviet Union, on the other hand, had to spend up to 20% of its GDP on military, which eventually ruined its economy.

suby68 said:

Another important point is national debt: Compare the entire Chinese debt with that of the Soviet Union in 1980: Is it 100 or 500 times larger? Actually the Soviet Union didn't have a debt but financial reserves.

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It is interesting that when talking about income, you talk in per capita terms, while taking about debt, you switch to terms of aggregate. Almost all of China's debt is internal. Internal debt does not really matter that much. On the other hand, China has a huge domestic savings account of more than $20 trillion (in U.S. dollars), and a foreign exchange reserve of more than $3 trillion (the largest in the world). Since China can easily spend as much as the U.S. on military (Don't forget that the U.S. also has huge domestic debts), it's very unwise for Trump to provoke China to embark on a rapid build-up of both her conventional and nuclear forces.

suby68 said:

In the end any dictator can deliver some economic growth for some decades, see a Mussolini, Franco or a Park in South Korea. Why has not even one half-developed country still such a dictator in charge? Think about that and you know why the Chinese system as it is today will not last.

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But Chinese "dictators" are THE "dictators" - they are different from all the other dictators - both the speed and the scale of China's rise under the Chinese "dictators" are unprecedented in human history. Even if it lasts only 10 more years, China probably will still become by far the world's largest economy, even in market exchange terms. Have some patience, just wait and see.

I can't believe someone is actually comparing China's economy with the former USSR in an unfavourable light... wow

And I'm surprised this thread is still open to be honest. I thought for sure it would've been locked back earlier this year when it was created.

China is extremely different from the former Soviet Union historically and culturally. The former Soviet Union was a pot of unmeltable mess with so much tension among various people. The only thing holding that unmeltable mess was the military and political brute of the Soviets. It's obvious that once the military and political will is gone, the whole thing went a million pieces.

China on the other has been a very stable and harmonious culture for millennia. Over the last 150 years, China had suffered catastrophic political, cultural, military turmoils and natural disasters that killed over hundred million people. Any single turmoil would have ended any other culture for good. From 1850's to 1950's (that's 100 years), China had been under almost constant foreign invasion while spending close to half of that time without a central government. Between 1910 and 1950, China had been fighting two world wars and constant civil wars between dozens of warlords. If this happened in another country, we would have seen split. Yet, China emerged as united as ever.

In fact, the last time China experienced a major change in territory was... Zhou dynasty. That was 3000 years ago when China went through a major expansion.

Throughout the 5000 years of its existence, China has experienced countless gigantic scale military and political turmoils and regime changes, including two civil wars that each lasted over 300 years. Then there were foreign invasions and occupations. No matter what, China always comes out as a unified nation and culture. Nothing has ever split China in its 5000 year history.

vesicles said:

In fact, the last time China experienced a major change in territory was... Zhou dynasty. That was 3000 years ago when China went through a major expansion.

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Are you serious?
Last thing China lacks through 2 thousands of years of imperial/modern eras is major territorial changes. Before - even more so.

Gloire_bb said:

Are you serious?
Last thing China lacks through 2 thousands of years of imperial/modern eras is major territorial changes. Before - even more so.

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Check historical Chinese maps. It has not had any major changes since Zhou dynasty. The last major expansion was Han dynasty. Then it's back and forth, give or take one province here and there. Nothing major considering how huge China is.

vesicles said:

In fact, the last time China experienced a major change in territory was... Zhou dynasty. That was 3000 years ago when China went through a major expansion.

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You must be joking.....

Iron Man said:

You must be joking.....

View attachment 34761

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That's why I said major expansion after Zhou dynasty.

It would be impossible to summarize 5000 years of Chinese history in a few short sentences. No matter how I frame it, you will find something wrong with the statement.

So don't fix on the details. Focus on the big picture: China has been a stable and harmonious culture for thousands of years and won't split as easily as the Soviets. Thus, China never has to fear the fate of the Soviets.

vesicles said:

That's why I said major expansion after Zhou dynasty.

Also, my message was that China has been a stable and harmonious culture for thousands of years and won't split as easily as the Soviets. Thus, China never has to fear the fate of the Soviets.

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You made no mention of "after". You actually made 2 mutually incompatible statements. The first was that China experienced a major expansion during the Zhou Dynasty: "In fact, the last time China experienced a major change in territory was... Zhou dynasty." Then you revised that and said "The last major expansion was Han dynasty." These two sentences are mutually contradictory and are logically irreconcilable. In fact both Zhou and Han are wrong answers. China has continuously expanded, sometimes incrementally, sometimes dramatically, during its history since the Zhou. During periods of disunity there were times when the boundaries shrank but taken as a whole there is no way you can compare the boundaries of Zhou to the modern boundaries of the PRC and say that this expansion happened "3000 years ago".

China in fact has not been a "harmonious" culture for thousands of years and has actually split into pieces more times than not. That, however, is not to say that present-day China will or has to follow in the footsteps of history yet again. As long as the majority population of Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia are majority Han, the chance of splitting during a period of absent central control is relatively low. And the more majority the Han ethnicity is, the lesser the chance of splitting. This is exactly what is happening now in all of those territories.

vesicles said:

That's why I said major expansion after Zhou dynasty.

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I.e. when state rises in size +/- twice (early Tang compared to late Sui) is counted as minor expansion?
(discounting northern dependencies of Taizong's rein)

Iron Man said:

You made no mention of "after". You actually made 2 mutually incompatible statements. The first was that China experienced a major expansion during the Zhou Dynasty: "In fact, the last time China experienced a major change in territory was... Zhou dynasty." Then you revised that and said "The last major expansion was Han dynasty." These two sentences are mutually contradictory and are logically irreconcilable. In fact both Zhou and Han are wrong answers. China has continuously expanded, sometimes incrementally, sometimes dramatically, during its history since the Zhou. During periods of disunity there were times when the boundaries shrank but taken as a whole there is no way you can compare the boundaries of Zhou to the modern boundaries of the PRC and say that this expansion happened "3000 years ago".

China in fact has not been a "harmonious" culture for thousands of years and has actually split into pieces more times than not. That, however, is not to say that present-day China will or has to follow in the footsteps of history yet again. As long as the majority population of Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia are majority Han, the chance of splitting during a period of absent central control is relatively low. And the more majority the Han ethnicity is, the lesser the chance of splitting. This is exactly what is happening now in all of those territories.

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Define harmonious. At least the Chinese didn't enslaved Africans from thousands of miles, crusade against Muslims, and murdering millions of natives for their land like the those so called Christians.

It make it as if China is made up of only Han ethnicity. Yes they are the majority group, but there are 55 other ethnic groups in China that are loyal to the PRC. It's only the China haters, doom mongers,a and naysayers that only wish to see modern China split.