China's Gender Imbalance

solarz · Jul 18, 2011

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China male to female sex ratio:
- At birth: 1.133
- Under 15: 1.17
- 15-65: 1.06
- 65+: 0.93
- total: 1.06

Now assuming that the ratio imbalance is a continuous trend that has been happening since the implementation of the one-child policy, this shows that the imbalance is greatest among the younger generation.

Already, we can see the effect of this imbalance through the huge "dowries" demanded by the brides' family.

I'm curious as to what you guys think of this? Certainly the government will begin to relax family-planning policies and even encourage giving birth to girls, but those policies will take decades to revert the effect, and we will still be left with a generation's worth of gender imbalance. What do you think will be the effect of this on society?

Western sources prophesies Doom and Gloom, but I think that it will start a trend of men marrying later in life and to younger brides. As we know, women seek a financially secure husband, which tends to be an advantage that older men have over younger men.

airsuperiority · Jul 18, 2011

solarz said:
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Now assuming that the ratio imbalance is a continuous trend that has been happening since the implementation of the one-child policy, this shows that the imbalance is greatest among the younger generation.

Already, we can see the effect of this imbalance through the huge "dowries" demanded by the brides' family.

I'm curious as to what you guys think of this? Certainly the government will begin to relax family-planning policies and even encourage giving birth to girls, but those policies will take decades to revert the effect, and we will still be left with a generation's worth of gender imbalance. What do you think will be the effect of this on society?

Western sources prophesies Doom and Gloom, but I think that it will start a trend of men marrying later in life and to younger brides. As we know, women seek a financially secure husband, which tends to be an advantage that older men have over younger men.

I also don't hope a social phenomenon comes out where multiple men share a single woman. It doesn't balance things out, and it's messed up. For China where social morality standards remain quite questionable already as it is, we don't need it to get anywhere lower. I've heard it somewhere, and I think it's as sad and disgusting as the primary intended abortions just to have male offsprings. It was this phenomenon which led to the fruits that they reap today, so I think it's their own doing. If they try to undo the problem by inventing some creative yet ab-"norm"-al solutions, I'd think things will only get worse.

There's a lot more USB than the ports are available, so some of them are gonna expire without one. The deaths of these will help rebalance the books. It's sad, but it's inevitable. Also in a sense, this gap will reduce the population of the lowest income bracket group of the Han ethnicity since these dowries also means a wealthier single male has a more darwinian competitive economical advantage over his less fortunate peers, leaving the poorer ones to fade into history.

Other trends we may see will be of course, the inverse flux of females being born, or an increase in marriages with minorities.

Assuming birth rates of both genders are balanced starting from today on, it will take 90 years for China to completely rebalance itself. This is because 90 years later, the surplus will die out.

Quickie · Jul 18, 2011

solarz said:
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Now assuming that the ratio imbalance is a continuous trend that has been happening since the implementation of the one-child policy, this shows that the imbalance is greatest among the younger generation.

Already, we can see the effect of this imbalance through the huge "dowries" demanded by the brides' family.

I'm curious as to what you guys think of this? Certainly the government will begin to relax family-planning policies and even encourage giving birth to girls, but those policies will take decades to revert the effect, and we will still be left with a generation's worth of gender imbalance. What do you think will be the effect of this on society?

Western sources prophesies Doom and Gloom, but I think that it will start a trend of men marrying later in life and to younger brides. As we know, women seek a financially secure husband, which tends to be an advantage that older men have over younger men.

The doom and gloom story can't be true. The gender imbalance in the population will not in anyway affect the conceiving ratio of the 2 genders, which should not be confused with the birth ratio.

Unless they find a way to have some control over conceiving a child with the desired sex (I don't think anyone have found a way yet), it'll probably take an average Chinese person lifespan, 80 years or thereabout, to reverse the imbalance to back to normal, starting from the time when the sex-of-birth intervention stops for whatever reason.

solarz · Jul 18, 2011

airsuperiority said:
I also don't hope a social phenomenon comes out where multiple men share a single woman. It doesn't balance things out, and it's messed up. For China where social morality standards remain quite questionable already as it is, we don't need it to get anywhere lower. I've heard it somewhere, and I think it's as sad and disgusting as the primary intended abortions just to have male offsprings. It was this phenomenon which led to the fruits that they reap today, so I think it's their own doing. If they try to undo the problem by inventing some creative yet ab-"norm"-al solutions, I'd think things will only get worse.

That's never going to happen. Nothing in China is "invented", everything, including the gender imbalance, is born out of traditional Chinese thinking. Polyandry is pretty much anathema to Chinese culture. Well, Han Chinese culture anyway. Some ethnic minorities practice it.

There's a lot more USB than the ports are available, so some of them are gonna expire without one. The deaths of these will help rebalance the books. It's sad, but it's inevitable. Also in a sense, this gap will reduce the population of the lowest income bracket group of the Han ethnicity since these dowries also means a wealthier single male has a more darwinian competitive economical advantage over his less fortunate peers, leaving the poorer ones to fade into history.

The problem with this kind of view is that it assumes people, and populations, are static. That's not true. A poor young dude who can't get a wife isn't just going to sit back and accept his fate. He's going to try and find a way to change that, whether it's by getting rich(er), or maybe finding a wife outside of China.

Remember, as China gets more prosperous, it will attract immigrants from the poorer neighboring countries.

Red___Sword · Jul 18, 2011

The gender imbalance exists, but not as sterotype as you may read or heard from any "concerned expert outsiders", and I meand outsiders when thier concerns affects little.

Without trying to starting a fight, I sincerly suggesting people stops reading sterotype "news" that Chinese family abandon female infants, or sell female infants, or "eat children" and so on, that created the bigger and bigger gender imbalance (on top of any other social moral issues)... look at who are those bunch people creating and singing this kind of sterotyp at first place, we SDF member are THAT ignorant?

I would like to have this approach: When people taking gender imbalance serious, the first impact they can think of, is the "some men don't have women left to marry" thing. I would like to consider like, a loaded train takes time to accelerate and takes time to decelerate.

- It takes time. That's the window when something solarz generized it as "people would figure a way out" either delay the problem, or import resources to lighten the problem. The problem didn't solved outright, but it dose makes a "window" for things to change.

Even the "boy is better" mind dies hard, Chinese culture don't have any probelm for overall reproduction, as the "5000 years of champion of population" historical fact can tell you. This fact actually is a very good and very powerful balance force, that Chinese society self-balance the imbalance. It takes time, we have a little bit time.

Like I try my best to emphsis numerous times, the current Family Planning Policy, is not a stupid and stubborn "one child policy" as some can only comprehend, it is an overall planning policy to navigate China's overall population situation (including age differences and gender balances and gene diversity and many other concerns) so that it won't close any "window" to self and natural justify and balance.

In simply word, what the hell is there any problem if tomorrow the authorities gives order among state owned entities that female employees simplly have to "hit" certain amount of % among all the employees and peasant households getting farm land compensation for having only one female child... and so on. It is bad way to put the hypothesis, don't read it literally.

Population imbalance problem can be balanced as naturally as it can get in China this wonderland, although govt can makes some serious yet subtle influence on it.

SampanViking · Jul 19, 2011

An excess of males is a common pre-requisite for an expanding culture and has been throughout the ages.

In this case, it will produce a huge influx of young Chinese men leaving China to seek their fortunes all over the globe.

It is how true economic empires are built.

airsuperiority · Jul 19, 2011

solarz said:
That's never going to happen. Nothing in China is "invented", everything, including the gender imbalance, is born out of traditional Chinese thinking. Polyandry is pretty much anathema to Chinese culture. Well, Han Chinese culture anyway. Some ethnic minorities practice it.

The problem with this kind of view is that it assumes people, and populations, are static. That's not true. A poor young dude who can't get a wife isn't just going to sit back and accept his fate. He's going to try and find a way to change that, whether it's by getting rich(er), or maybe finding a wife outside of China.

Remember, as China gets more prosperous, it will attract immigrants from the poorer neighboring countries.

oh i was talking about infanticides which started this chaos in teh beginning

as for 2nd paragraph, you've made a valid point, but half of my argument still stands. if the unwealthy man upgraded himself, then he's no longer unwealthy. that leaves 1 less man in the lowest bracket of income. and of course if he leaves, then that will support the statement about these bachelors either investing in the punani market overseas or something

airsuperiority · Jul 19, 2011

Red___Sword said:
The gender imbalance exists, but not as sterotype as you may read or heard from any "concerned expert outsiders", and I meand outsiders when thier concerns affects little.

Without trying to starting a fight, I sincerly suggesting people stops reading sterotype "news" that Chinese family abandon female infants, or sell female infants, or "eat children" and so on, that created the bigger and bigger gender imbalance (on top of any other social moral issues)... look at who are those bunch people creating and singing this kind of sterotyp at first place, we SDF member are THAT ignorant?

I would like to have this approach: When people taking gender imbalance serious, the first impact they can think of, is the "some men don't have women left to marry" thing. I would like to consider like, a loaded train takes time to accelerate and takes time to decelerate.

- It takes time. That's the window when something solarz generized it as "people would figure a way out" either delay the problem, or import resources to lighten the problem. The problem didn't solved outright, but it dose makes a "window" for things to change.

Even the "boy is better" mind dies hard, Chinese culture don't have any probelm for overall reproduction, as the "5000 years of champion of population" historical fact can tell you. This fact actually is a very good and very powerful balance force, that Chinese society self-balance the imbalance. It takes time, we have a little bit time.

Like I try my best to emphsis numerous times, the current Family Planning Policy, is not a stupid and stubborn "one child policy" as some can only comprehend, it is an overall planning policy to navigate China's overall population situation (including age differences and gender balances and gene diversity and many other concerns) so that it won't close any "window" to self and natural justify and balance.

In simply word, what the hell is there any problem if tomorrow the authorities gives order among state owned entities that female employees simplly have to "hit" certain amount of % among all the employees and peasant households getting farm land compensation for having only one female child... and so on. It is bad way to put the hypothesis, don't read it literally.

Population imbalance problem can be balanced as naturally as it can get in China this wonderland, although govt can makes some serious yet subtle influence on it.

i don't know why it's always the last sentence of all your responses that makes the most sense, and also almost the only sentence that i actually understand. anyways i agree with the last sentence, hence i said, the books will balance itself out. as they die out, it will be ok lol.

solarz · Jul 19, 2011

airsuperiority said:
oh i was talking about infanticides which started this chaos in teh beginning

as for 2nd paragraph, you've made a valid point, but half of my argument still stands. if the unwealthy man upgraded himself, then he's no longer unwealthy. that leaves 1 less man in the lowest bracket of income. and of course if he leaves, then that will support the statement about these bachelors either investing in the punani market overseas or something

Yes, but that buys a transition time. For example, a guy in his 20's can't find a wife, so he works hard to get rich. Finally, in his 40's, he's rich enough to marry a 25-year-old wife. He did bump another guy in the 20's off the list, who would start the cycle again, buying enough time for the ratio to balance itself out.

Sampan said:
An excess of males is a common pre-requisite for an expanding culture and has been throughout the ages.

In this case, it will produce a huge influx of young Chinese men leaving China to seek their fortunes all over the globe.

It is how true economic empires are built.

I think that's a very interesting idea, and quite likely as well.

airsuperiority · Jul 19, 2011

solarz said:
Yes, but that buys a transition time. For example, a guy in his 20's can't find a wife, so he works hard to get rich. Finally, in his 40's, he's rich enough to marry a 25-year-old wife. He did bump another guy in the 20's off the list, who would start the cycle again, buying enough time for the ratio to balance itself out.

I think that's a very interesting idea, and quite likely as well.

Actually depending how we measure poverty: Bell Curve vs Income scale? (sounds awfully like university again doesn't it?)
If by income scale, then we'll all be witnessing a gradual increase of the average income for Chinese. If by bell curve, then true it's a relative gain game.

China's Gender Imbalance

solarz

Brigadier

airsuperiority

Captain

Quickie

Colonel

solarz

Brigadier

Red___Sword

Junior Member

SampanViking

The Capitalist

airsuperiority

Captain

airsuperiority

Captain

solarz

Brigadier

airsuperiority

Captain