China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[crobato]

China: Reports of Increased Naval Activity
October 22, 2008 | 1927 GMT

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Four ships of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) transited the Tsugaru Strait between the Japanese home islands of Honshu and Hokkaido on Oct. 19, the Joint Staff Office of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces announced Oct. 20. As part of the announcement, Japanese officials raised concerns about the increasing range and tempo of PLAN operations, which have been expanding in both area and frequency.

According to the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), four PLAN ships — a destroyer, two frigates and a support ship — transited the Tsugaru Strait from the Sea of Japan into the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. One of the frigates reportedly belonged to the PLAN’s latest class, the Jiangkai II (Type 054A).

The announcement follows closely on the heels of another incident revealed by the JMSDF. At the end of September, the aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) arrived at its new homeport in Yokosuka, Japan, where it replaced the USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) as the U.S. Navy’s forward-deployed carrier. At the beginning of October, the Washington sailed from Yokosuka to Pusan, South Korea, for an international fleet exhibit.

During that transit, an older Chinese Han (Type 091) class nuclear-powered submarine and a much newer Song (Type 039) class diesel-electric boat were both detected and identified near Japanese territorial waters. They were likely attempting closer and more detailed readings of the Washington’s acoustic signature. After all, it will now be the Washington that is Beijing’s closest and most constant reminder of U.S. naval power.

Such incidents do occasionally, and inevitably, occur. (Another Song submarine surfaced less than five nautical miles from the Kitty Hawk in 2006, for example.) And they will inevitably continue, even as concurrent steps towards warming naval relations continue — such as the 2007 visit by a Chinese destroyer to Japan and a similarly landmark visit by a Japanese destroyer to China earlier in 2008, the first such visits since World War II. But while part of this may be a conscious effort on the part of Tokyo to play up Chinese naval activity, this might also be emblematic of a higher tempo of PLAN operations.

The support ship in company with the small squadron of PLAN ships that transited Tsugaru could be capable of underway replenishment. If so, the squadron could drill in those maneuvers in the North Pacific, honing the skills necessary to sustain deployments much further afield. But both the ships east of Tsugaru and the subs that stalked the Washington were undoubtedly testing the waters, noting U.S. and Japanese response times and standard operating procedures.

Ultimately, the PLAN still has a long way to go in terms of being a modern naval power capable of blue-water operations, especially in terms of the proficiency of their sailors and officers and the time they spend at sea. But despite the long-standing exaggeration in many circles of the “threat” and the “menace” of the PLAN, these most recent incidents serve as a reminder of how the Chinese navy is — if ever so slowly — pushing outward. The waters between China and Japan are thus liable to become a very crowded place in the future.

 

[crobato]

RAND Corp. Warns of Military Threat from China
Updated Oct.22,2008 12:08 KST

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A leading U.S. scholar warns South Korea should prepare for Chinese military intervention and occupation of North Korea or possible attacks against the South’s military in the event of a regime collapse in the North. Dr. Bruce Bennett of the defense-oriented RAND Corporation delivered an address at a seminar in Seoul on Tuesday hosted by the South Korean Army at the War Memorial of Korea, where he forecast Chinese occupation of a portion of North Korea or a threat of invasion to South.

The RAND Corporation is a research and development institution created in 1948 by civilian scientists and researchers who had been commissioned by the U.S. Air Force. Bennett is the North Korea expert there.

He said if China decides to intervene after a collapse, its armies will arrive in Pyongyang before South Korean troops get there, and if a battle breaks out, then Chinese forces would have two to three times the quality advantage. Technical assistance from the United States, based on a continued Korea-U.S. alliance would be crucial, he added.

Bennett said the future military of South Korea would require 16 to 24 ready divisions and between 11 to 27 reserve divisions in event of a regime collapse in North Korea to deal with a North Korean military threat, peacekeeping operations and acts of provocation.

([email protected] )

 

[crobato]

The PLA's Formidable Fighter Force

The centerpiece of the airborne component of China’s new air defense system is a mixed fighter fleet comprising several derivatives of the Russian Sukhoi Flanker fighter and the indigenous Chinese J-10 lightweight fighter, conceptually closest to the European Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen and cancelled Israeli Lavi design.

The Russian Flanker was initially developed as a counter to the U.S. F-15 Eagle series, and has remained in continuous development since the late 1970s. The basic Flanker design is larger, heavier, longer ranging and more agile than the basic F-15C. China procured its first batch of Russian built Su-27SK and Su-27UBK Flankers in 1992, followed by several follow-on purchases. By the late 1990s a deal was struck with the Russians for Shenyang to license and build 200 Su-27SK fighters in two 100 aircraft blocks, as the J-11A. Subsequently the PLA-AF procured several batches of the smart weapons capable Su-30MKK, a dual-seat fighter-bomber variant closest in capability to the U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle, but retaining the full air combat capability of the J-11A interceptor. The PLA Navy air arm followed the PLA-AF by procuring a fleet of the Su-30MK2 with additional weapons capabilities, and negotiating the purchase of 50 Su-33 Flanker D, a navalized variant for its aircraft carrier Shi Lang (aka Varyag), which has been kept ship-docked in Dalian since 2002 [5]. At the same time, a pilot training academy has been recently launched in Dalian, which holds a major training facility for the country's naval aviation fleets (Flight International, October 3). In 2004, Russian analysts were predicting a PLA fleet of around 500 Flankers, rivaling in size the 600-strong U.S. Air Force fleet of F-15s [6].

Complications have since arisen as a result of the PLA reverse engineering the J-11A airframe and engines without authorization, and producing the indigenous J-11B Flanker. While the J-11B is based on the Su-27SK design, it is fitted with indigenous Chinese systems, including a more capable derivative of the Russian Phazotron Zhuk-MSE radar, a glass cockpit, threat warning systems, and other refinements such as an onboard oxygen generating system, seen only in the most recent Russian Su-35BM variant. A public dispute developed over the J-11B, with considerable Russian media coverage. It remains unclear whether Russia will continue to supply Flankers in the future, and it is entirely conceivable that future construction will comprise indigenous growth variants of the J-11B [7].

The J-10 recently achieved initial operational capability and is in full-rate production. Early estimations were that around 1,000 were to be built to replace the legacy J-6, J-7 and A-5 strike fighter fleets. While integration of ground attack weapons on the J-10 continues, the aircraft have mostly been photographed carrying air-to-air missiles for air defence purposes [8].

The fighter fleet is being armed with a mix of missiles, both of Russian and indigenous design. The Flankers were initially armed with imported standard Russian 1980s technology beyond visual range Vympel R-27 Alamo and short-range thrust-vectoring R-73 Archer dogfight missiles.

These were later supplemented by the imported Vympel R-77 Adder or “AMRAAM-ski”, comparable in capability to the US AIM-120A/B variants. Concurrently China licensed the R-77 seeker and guidance system from Agat in Russia, and incorporated these into the indigenous PL-12/SD-10 missile, which is similar in design to the AIM-120C and credited with more range than the US missile [9].

China continues to manufacture the PL-8 dogfight missile, which resembles the Israeli Python 3 and is similar in capability to the US AIM-9L/M Sidewinder variants, but inferior to the latest AIM-9X. The PL-8 is carried by the J-8, J-10 and J-11B. A more advanced thrust vectoring dogfight missile, the PL-ASR/PL-13 is in development [10].

The latest reports indicate that an effort is under way to develop a very long-range ramjet missile, similar to the European MBDA Meteor which is to arm the Eurofighter Typhoon [11].

The fighter fleet is to be supported by a fleet of Il-78 Midas aerial refuelling tankers, of which eight have been ordered from TAPO in Tashkent. Both the J-8 and J-10 are currently refueled by a fleet of indigenous H-6DU/U tankers, based on a reverse-engineered Tupolev Badger airframe and British FRL aerial refuelling package [12].

China has three active development programs to produce airborne early warning and control aircraft. The foremost of these is the KJ-2000 active phased-array system, based on the Israeli A-50I ordered by China but blocked after U.S. intervention. It employs more advanced antenna technology than the US E-3C AWACS. Two smaller programs based on the C-130 sized Y-8 turboprop transport use antenna designs conceptually similar to the US E-2C Hawkeye system and the Swedish Erieye phased array system, respectively [13].

The PLA's Air Defense Missile Systems

The PLA's airborne surveillance radar effort has paralleled the deployment of a range of advanced Eastern European and indigenous air defense radars and passive detection systems, some of which are intended to support interceptors, and some missile batteries.

The indigenous CETC YLC-20 emitter locating system is modeled on the Czech Tamara/Vera and Ukrainian Kolchuga M, several of which were procured by the PLA. The United States has in the past blocked the export of the Czech Vera system. These networked sensors can precisely track aircrafts by exploiting their radar and network terminal radio frequency emissions.

The most prominent counter-stealth radar developed to date is the two meter band CETC JY-27, similar to the Russian NNIRT Nebo SV/SVU series. The Russians are claiming that radars in this class can track stealth aircraft such as the F-117A stealth fighter at ranges of around 200 nautical miles.

The centerpiece of the PLA’s SAM system is the imported variants of the formidable Russian Almaz S-300PMU/PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble / SA-20A Gargoyle) and S-300PMU2 Favorit (SA-20B Gargoyle), which are Russian equivalents to the U.S. Patriot PAC-1 and PAC-2 systems. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the PLA has deployed 32 S-300PMU launch systems, 64 S-300PMU1 launch systems, and 32 new S-300PMU2 launch systems. These numbers amount to 16 to 32 batteries, subject to composition [14].

Russia is now deploying its first Almaz-Antey S-400 (SA-21) batteries, the system formerly known as the S-300PMU3. It incorporates much more powerful radars, the improved 48N6E3 missile, shorter range 9M96E/E2 missiles for self-defense against anti-radar weapons such as the US HARM, and the 200-nautical-mile long-range 40N6E missile. The latter is intended to kill surveillance aircraft like the E-3 AWACS and RC-135V/W Rivet Joint, as well as electronic warfare aircraft like the EA-6B Prowler and EA-18G Growler. There are claims that China contributed funding to the development of the S-400, as well as claims that the S-400 is now being marketed to the PLA, but no hard evidence has surfaced to date (China Brief, July 17).

Unlike the U.S. Patriot missile system, the Russian S-300P series systems are highly mobile and include a diverse range of supporting radars, including the 30N6 Flap Lid and Tomb Stone phased array engagement radars, the 36D6 Tin Shield acquisition radar, and in the later variants 64N6 Big Bird series phased array acquisition radars. The S-300P series systems were built to engage low-flying cruise missiles and aircraft at all altitudes. The systems include the earlier 5V55 series missiles with ranges of up to 50 nautical miles and the more recent 48N6E series missiles with up to 110 nautical miles of range. The latter missiles allow a coastal battery in the Taiwan Strait to deny the use of airspace above Taiwan. There are claims that the PLA has experimented with the integration of two meter band radars as an acquisition component in these missile batteries [15].

The S-300P systems are supplemented by the HQ-9 missile and associated HT-233 radar, which use technology from the S-300PMU, with 64 launch systems deployed. The FT2000 “counter-AWACS” missile is part of this package. The indigenous mobile HQ-12/KS-1A missile and HT-200 radar are employed as gap fillers [16].

The most capable short-range missile system is the imported Russian 9K331 Tor M/M1 or SA-15 Gauntlet, which would be used to protect targets against smart munitions and cruise missiles. The Crotale has been further developed [17].

Conclusions

China’s air defense system is maturing into the largest, most capable and technically advanced in Asia, and will be capable of inflicting very heavy attrition on any aircraft other than upper tier U.S. stealth systems. Until the U.S. deploys its planned “New Generation Bomber” post-2020, the United States will have only 180 F-22 Raptors and 20 B-2A Spirit bombers capable of penetrating the PLA’s defensive shield. This may not be enough to act as a credible non-nuclear strategic deterrent. The weakness of the U.S. strategic posture relative to China is further exacerbated by a limited number of bases across the West Pacific, with key sites at Kadena AFB on Okinawa and Andersen AFB on Guam unhardened and thus unusable were the PLA to launch DF-21 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles, or cruise missiles, against these sites in the event of a conflict [18].

The existing U.S. military posture in Asia with close regional allies such as Japan, Australia and South Korea are predicated on the United States retaining a non-nuclear strategic capability advantage over the PLA. If that advantage continues to erode with improving PLA capabilities and declining United States relative capabilities, a seismic shift may eventually occur in Asia as the strategic balance in the West Pacific swings away from the United States in favor of China. The United States still has strategic options available that will however require the incoming administration depart fundamentally from the policy of ignoring PLA capability growth.

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[tphuang]

It's just the way that Carlo Kopp writes these articles. No one can take this guy seriously. According to him, everything China has is basically copied from someone else.

 

[crobato]

It's just the way that Carlo Kopp writes these articles. No one can take this guy seriously. According to him, everything China has is basically copied from someone else.

Isn't this supposed to be Richard Fisher's job? Where is he? He usually pounds out this sort of material for Jamestown.

 

[flyzies]

From Janes...

China considers next-generation Su-33s for aircraft carrier programme

China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is close to reaching a decision on the procurement of aircraft for its aircraft carrier programme, Russian industry sources have told Jane's.

Negotiations between the PLAN and the Komsomolsk-na-Amure Aviation Production Association (KnAAPO) in Russia have been held intermittently for several years, with the Chinese military said to be unsure whether to purchase a version of the Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-capable fighter or develop its own carrier aircraft based on the Chengdu J-10.

Russian sources have now told Jane's that under the current proposal the Russian in-service Su-33 would be put back into production and the PLAN would acquire 14 of this type to be used for the training phase of the programme.

This option will see a carrier aircraft delivered to the PLAN in the shortest possible timeframe.

The development of a new-configuration aircraft to be used in actual carrier operations would take place in parallel with this training programme.

"The next step will be to modernise the Su-33, which was first designed in the late 1980s, with a new set of state-of-the-art onboard systems," a KnAAPO representative told Jane's on the eve of the biennial Air Show China in late October. "What this new aeroplane is most likely to be is a combination Su-33 airframe with a radar, avionics and cockpit instrumentation that is a 'developed' configuration based on the Su-30MK2, and this will be the PLAN's operational version."

Now, if i remember correctly, the Russians previously already stated China had decided to buy/have bought 50 Su-33s. I always held a skeptical view on that piece of news...was waiting for confirmation from Chinese side. I guess this confirms China has not decided to buy Su-33s just yet...

 

[crobato]

This sort of news makes me feel duh, isn't it obvious?

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Intel chief sees growing potential for conflict
Fri Oct 31, 2008 12:33am EDT

By JoAnne Allen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The risk of international conflict will increase in the next two decades as China, India and Russia become major powers and competition for resources grows, the top U.S. intelligence official said on Thursday.

The next 20 years of transition to a new international system will be fraught with risks and challenges with the rise of emerging powers and a historic transfer of wealth and economic power from West to East, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell told an intelligence conference in Nashville, Tennessee.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, demographics, access to natural resources, investments and technological innovation," McConnell said in a transcript of a speech provided by his office.

If current trends persist, by 2025, China will be en route to becoming the world's largest economy, a major military power and likely the world's largest importer of natural resources, McConnell said.

India and Russia would be close behind with more wealth and power, he said.

Economic and population growth will put increasing pressure on a number of strategic resources, such as energy, food and water.

"Just think about it: 1.4 billion people without these basic necessities will create significant tensions on the globe, tensions that world bodies and larger states will have to contend (with)," McConnell said.

"Given the confluence of factors from a new global international system, increasing tension over natural resources, weapons proliferation, things of this nature, we predict an increased likelihood for conflict," he added.

The official, who briefs the U.S. president daily on intelligence matters, said his agency had met with the two major presidential candidates, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, focusing mostly on terrorism.

McConnell said that immediately after Tuesday's election, the president-elect would start getting full daily intelligence briefings.

(Writing by Joanne Allen; Editing by Peter Cooney)

 

[crobato]

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Foreign students watch PLA exercise
By Hu Yinan (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-10-29 07:48
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Clouds of smoke fill the air yesterday, as tank crews do battle during the Vanguard 2008 military exercise in Zhumadian, Henan province. Yang Shizhong

Zhumadian, HENAN: Two hundred military students from 67 countries were invited to witness the annual PLA's Jinan Military Area Command exercise yesterday.

The exercise in Henan province, marked the first time the Chinese military had opened its battalion-level field command center to foreigners.

Some 2,200 soldiers took part in the week-long exercise, codenamed "Vanguard 2008", which concluded yesterday.

More than 7,000 live ammunition rounds were used including Type-96 tanks, 122-mm self-propelled howitzers and Zhi-9 helicopters, Major-General Ma Qiusheng, director of the exercise, told a news briefing held earlier.

The aim of the exercise was to test offensive operations by an armored brigade in mountainous area, and in a complex electromagnetic environment, Senior Colonel Zheng Jiakai, said.

Like its predecessors, "Vanguard 2008" was staged at the Queshan Combined Tactics Training Base in Henan's Zhumadian city.

The 1,200 sq km base at an altitude of 800 m, consists of mountains and ranges.

The foreign military students are on a one-year training course at the National Defense University (NDU) and the Nanjing Army Command College. They arrived in China in September.

"I don't think there's much of a difference between the PLA and other modern armies now," NDU student Frouari Loic Roger Horst, who is poised to become France's military attache to China next year, said after observing the exercise.

A PLA member in charge of the NDU delegation, who declined to be named, said the students - mostly from developing countries - were most interested in the "tactics and strategies deployed with Chinese characteristics", such as Sun Tzu's art of war and Mao Zedong's military manoeuvres.

"We've had a beautiful one month. It has been an opportunity to get to know the Chinese. And, it is a good way of telling the world (what China is like)," Zahid Hamid Kiani, a colonel with the Pakistani Air Force, said.

"Because of media influences, there are some people who have issues with China But living within China and staying close to it, we know China has all the potential to emerge as the century's next world power," he said.

(China Daily 10/29/2008 page3)

 

[crobato]

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Is the Navy talking up China's nuclear submarine threat?
By Marko Beljac
Posted Friday, 12 September 2008

The Federal Government is currently in the process of drawing up a defence white paper, due to be released early next year. A number of interesting leaks have appeared providing some insight into internal deliberations, perhaps the most revealing thus far being the airing of Navy concerns about the modernisation of China's Navy, especially its strategic nuclear submarines. This class of submarine, known affectionately as boomers, is generally designed to launch strategic nuclear warheads while on patrol at sea. The author freely admits that Crimson Tide is his favourite movie so let us stick with the term boomers.

The Australian reported:

… concern in Australian defence circles about China's naval expansion is real and rising but it is also kept firmly behind closed doors. While politicians and diplomats speak glowingly about Australia's relations with China, the burgeoning trade links and shared interests, a small team of defence planners in Canberra is planning how best to handle China's naval challenge to the region. The new defence white paper to be released at the end of the year will be framed with China's naval expansion prominent in the minds of the authors.

Comments by the Prime Minister on the ABC's Lateline (September 10, 2008) about protecting Australia's sea lanes of communication tend to confirm this sentiment.

The article demonstrates that a key concern is Chinese boomer modernisation:

… at present China's submarine fleet is used almost exclusively as a coastal defence force but Washington suspects the ultimate aim is to develop a near-continuous sea-based force of nuclear-armed submarines that would pose serious dangers for the US Pacific fleet.

This debate is of the utmost significance for Australia. At its heart lies competing visions for the future of Australia's role in the region for the logical corollary of these arguments is to enmesh Australia more closely into an incipient strategy directed at the containment of China. In other words, should the Australian Defence Force be structured and sized for going to war against China as an appendage of US Pacific Command?

Whatever one feels is the appropriate answer to this question we all surely would agree that this debate should not be "kept firmly behind closed doors". Towards this end, it will help to put China's boomer modernisation in context by focusing on two questions. First, what capability do China's new boomers, the Jin-class, possess? Second, why should Beijing be interested in sending its strategic deterrent to sea?

Hitherto the capabilities of China's strategic nuclear missiles have been rudimentary, with its deterrent force mostly focused on land-based nuclear missiles. In fact China's older boomer, the Xia-class, never conducted a deterrent patrol given its limitations, nor was deployed with operational missiles. China's leaders never calculated the Xia-class as a real part of its nuclear deterrent.

A patrol is an extended voyage at sea well away from home port. Last year China only conducted six patrols for all classes of submarine. To have a continuous nuclear patrol capability, as the above article alleges China desires, would require multiple Jin-class submarines (China only had one Xia-class boomer). US naval intelligence alleges that China seeks to develop five Jin-class boomers in order to have one boat continuously at sea, but the latest Pentagon report on Chinese military power does not include this assertion. China has three Jin-class boomers. Thus far no Jin-class submarine has conducted a patrol, although China has constructed a de-magnetisation facility that suggests that such a capability may be desired by planners.

China's land based missiles, which are of vintage design, are currently being modernised by developing more capable solid fuelled and road mobile missiles such as the DF-31. Beijing's modernisation of its boomer force is the sea leg basis of this program of modernisation. This modernisation is focused on developing a new class of submarine, the Jin-class as noted above, and a new sea launched ballistic missile, the JL-2. The JL-2 is roughly comparable to the US Trident C-4, not the more capable Trident II D-5 and is actually a variant of the DF-31. Thus far no JL-2 missile has been test launched from a Jin-class boomer.

This concurrent modernisation suggests to us that this modernisation might not be a reflection of a strategy of regional dominance backed up by nuclear firepower but an upgrade of vintage and increasingly unreliable technology. Furthermore, even if China does develop a patrol capability a one boomer continuous patrol means that China would have at sea only 12 strategic nuclear warheads, assuming (shared by US intelligence) that China will not employ multiple warheads on the JL-2.

China's nuclear modernisation thus far displays little to no sign of being conducted as a result of Beijing's adoption of a new nuclear strategy. China continues to adopt a minimum deterrent directed toward achieving "the minimum means of reprisal".

If deployed on patrol the Jin-class might not be able to evade US anti-submarine warfare capabilities. The Jin-class boomer would be highly vulnerable to US interdiction if employed deep in the Pacific Ocean, which means it could not really threaten all of the United States. Most likely, the Jin-class is designed for launching missiles from coastal areas thereby only threatening targets at the extreme Western most portions of the US. The Jin-class can only act as a means to deter a US first strike based on a minimum means of reprisal. In no way can it be argued that the Jin-class boomer would represent a counterforce capability against US strategic nuclear forces, in order to back up a strategy of regional dominance.

For instance, to just knock out the land-based leg of the US strategic triad Beijing would need to hit 500 hardened missile silos. No capability of one continuous at sea Jin-class patrol with 12 JL-2 missiles could do this.

Even assuming three multiple or MIRV warheads per missile (a figure we reach based on the reported throw weight of the JL-2) this equates to only 36 warheads. Even if all five that US Navy intelligence states will be built were on patrol at one time, highly unlikely for that is not how boomer operations work, then that becomes 180 warheads. That's still well below 500. Moreover, if MIRVed the JL-2 warheads would have a reported yield of 90,000 tons of TNT (90Kt). Given the reported accuracy of the JL-2, like the US C-4 armed with the W-76 (100 Kt) initially, this equates to no knock out capability even assuming 500 JL-2 warheads on continuous patrol able to evade US anti-submarine warfare.

The JL-2 Jin-class "threat" has absolutely zero credibility. In fact it is logically exactly the same as the purported "window of vulnerability" Soviet threat of the 1970s, which was fake, known to be fake at the time, confirmed to be fake by Reagan's Scowcroft commission on MX missile basing and recently further confirmed as fake through analysis of Russian documents by the Russian nuclear analyst Pavel Podvig.

Nuclear weapons in a sea based tactical environment in the region would most likely be directed at knocking out aircraft carrier battle groups, but boomers are not designed for such missions hence not terribly relevant.

The Jin-class threat, if the leak to The Australian is accurate, is being over sold by elements in the Australian Defence Force that seek to more deeply integrate Australian maritime power into US regional strategy. This is all very sad for the Army seeks to further integrate the ADF into US Central Command, which covers the Middle East. It is interesting that the ADF should state that the sea-lanes of communication to the Middle East is vital for the defence of Australia but a purported Chinese desire to do the same is an indication of an aggressive intent to dominate.

Why should China be interested in sending its deterrent to sea? From the Eisenhower Administration up until George W Bush the US nuclear war plan was known as the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP). The main focus of the SIOP was the Soviet Union, but China did figure in the early years. After the Sino-Soviet split and the thawing of relations with Beijing China was placed out of the main attack provisions of the SIOP. Intriguingly, during the Clinton Administration China was brought back into the SIOP. The Bush Administration's Nuclear Posture Review further alarmed strategic planners in Beijing.

Some reported features of the current US nuclear war plan, OPLAN-8044, are directed at China. Moreover, it is credibly reported that aspects of the Pacific Command's Operational Plan assume the use of nuclear weapons against China. The United States is upgrading its strategic capability, by modernising its warheads (new fuses for the W-76), testing GPS navigation systems for ballistic missiles, developing Ballistic Missile Defense and working on the weaponisation of space.

On top of that the Pentagon seeks to develop replacement warheads for its entire stockpile, to develop new land based missiles, new boomers armed with new missiles and new types of re-entry vehicles made possible by advances in quantum computation.

These programs taken together as a package threaten to undermine China's strategic deterrent, or at the very least appear to do so. This partly acts as a catalyst for China to increasingly shift its deterrent to sea to ensure survivability. This would then reflect not a strategy of regional dominance, but a desire to maintain the credibility of its minimum nuclear deterrent capability given US modernisation.

This should alarm us, but not for the reasons presented. China has little experience of the complex command and control arrangements of sea-based nuclear patrolling. The chances of things going wrong, as in Crimson Tide, in a crisis would be real. In fact, even if the Jin-class was to surge to coastal waters in a crisis, rather than be a patrol force, a sudden surge in a crisis could be de-stabilising. US actions are creating the dynamics that might lead to strategic postures that threaten accidental nuclear war in Asia.

If the Defence Department and Australia's senior commanders were more realistic they would recognise that the primary threat to strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific region arises from the continued US desire to maintain the Pacific as an American lake, not China's boomers nor its Navy for that matter. A true system of co-operative security and arms control in Asia would lead the burden on retrenching military power being faced by Washington.

It seems that planners at Defence Headquarters are aware that integrating Australia's defence capability with US Pacific Command would not be supported by the public, which actually regards the US as a greater threat than China, hence the rather dodgy analysis on Chinese boomer capability.

Spurious threat analysis underlies desires to maintain and increase high defence spending. The "socialist" Minister for Finance, Lindsay Tanner, cannot justify such spending whilst maintaining tight neo-liberal fiscal policies in order to soothe financial markets and the corporate elite without threat exaggerations. Expect to hear more in the coming months.


Marko Beljac's PhD at Monash University is under examination and he has taught at the University of Melbourne. He is interested in the interface between science and global security and currently is writing a book on nuclear terrorism. He maintains the blog Science and Global Security and is co-author of An Illusion of Protection: The Unavoidable Limitations of Safeguards on Nuclear Materials and the Export of Australian Uranium to China.


© The National Forum and contributors 1999-2008. All rights reserved.

 

[crobato]

China aims for military might: China is rapidly developing a highly modern military that will be the equal of Western armies with the ability to operate anywhere in the world. By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent Last Updated: 2:41AM BST 29 Sep 2008

China isdeveloping a modern military, second only to America Photo: REUTERS
Senior defence analysts said that within the next decade the country will have an army that will be second only to America’s military might which could “embolden” it to military action.

The rapid growth of China’s navy is matched by its desire to expand into the Indian Ocean and South China Sea to feed resources into its voracious economy.

The analysts, from Jane’s Information Group, believe that the Chinese Communist Party can only continue to rule the country if it maintains economic growth at more than 10 per cent. It is already investing heavily in Africa for food and natural resources but this could lead to conflict with India with the trade route that crosses the Indian Ocean.

Within the next year the first navy pilots will begin training for aircraft carrier operations that are expected to be operational early in the next decade.

A London conference attended by defence business leaders was told that new air-to-air refuelling planes are being delivered that will double the range of the Chinese air force’s increasingly modernised fighters.

The army has been substantially slimmed down into a leaner fighting force with new tanks and armoured vehicles coming off the production line.

“China is developing a modern highly manoeuvrable force able to operate anywhere as good if not better than Western armies,” said Christopher Foss, editor of Jane’s Armour and Artillery.

In the last 10 years China had made “dramatic progress, make no doubt about that,” he warned.

But it is China’s growing naval might that poses the greatest threat. By 2015 it is expected to have six Jin-class submarines capable of firing the JL2 ballistic nuclear missile that could threaten both the western and eastern American seaboards acting as deterrent to any US intervention if Taiwan or other areas erupted in conflict.

China’s nuclear attack submarine force is expanding “quite considerably” with six T93 hunter killers and more than a dozen Kilo class boats.

Fast attack craft, each carrying eight anti-ship missiles, are to increase from 40 to 100 giving the navy “a considerable capability”, the conference heard.

Christian Le Miere, editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review, said China would fear America less if it had the threat of nuclear weapons off US waters with a “very capable military to back up diplomatic moves”.

“People will keep an eye on China but there is no reason to think that conflict is inevitable,” he said.

He added that the “greatest threat of violence” would come when China’s military was fully revamped by 2020 and when it was “emboldened by military growth”.

While there has been a “step change in capabilities” the Chinese navy is a considerable distance from US Navy which spends ten time China’s budget building twice the number of vessels.

China, with an estimated defence budget of £35 billion, is currently on one of three countries developing a “fifth generation” advanced fighter called the J-XX that could be on a par with American planes although the project is highly secret.

Increasingly technology from European countries is being seen in Chinese equipment, the conference heard.

A major programme is in place to build 6,000 armoured vehicles at a cost of £7 billion that will include a “very advanced armoured package” of T99 tanks and the eight-wheeled VN1 armed with a 100mm gun, 30mm canon and 7.62mm machine gun.

As one of the “most significant vehicles” on the battlefield for the People’s Liberation Army the 2,500 VN1 will be air transportable.

In recent years China has spent considerable sums on improving capability, new landing craft and special harbours. There had been a major build up of assault ships including 30 large tank landing craft that would allow long range operations.

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