China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

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canonicalsadhu

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The low defense budget just reinforces my belief that Beijing has made a strategic decision to not be goaded by the US and will instead play the long game and set its own timetable.
China will wait another 15-20 years to solve the Taiwan issue. It will wait to build its semiconductor industry, achieve energy independence, become the undisputed tech leader in all fields, and dominate global tech markets. Then, with an economy that dwarfs the US+EU combined, it will ramp up military spending and undertake the largest military buildup in human history.
 
Jono

Jono

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as various members have pointed out and I agree that a 7.2% increase is not bad at all.
My argument is based on the following:
1, China is sending out a strong signal that it is still an economy-focused regional power, and its defense budget is commensurate with the size of its economy. The US thus cannot play up its China-threat narrative on this front, at least in Asia.
2, actual purchasing power parity is higher in terms of Yuan. for every ship the US can build, China can build 2 to 3 for the same price and faster, albeit slightly inferior in terms of quality.
3, compared to the US, China's inflation is much lower (<2% ?), and GDP growth (forecast is 6 to 6.5%) is much higher. Also, a higher percentage of its defense budget actually goes to equipment and materials whereas in the US a lot of money goes to salary and personnel/veteran welfare.
So may I be so bold as to argue that China can put its defense budget to much better and more efficient use compared to the US and that a 7.2% increase in terms of Yuan is good enough?
We armchair warriors may cry foul and cringe at such a "modest" increase in China's defense budget, but I am sure the Beijing authority has its game plan all thought out and will be patient with its strategic objectives. After all, why wake up the US when it is clearly sleepwalking into disasters at its present course by its long-arm jurisdiction over friends or foes alike, sanctioning anyone and their dogs who dare to disobey and hurting the major interests of its own allies like blowing up the Nord Stream 2?
 
grulle

grulle

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those who complain that China is too conservative in defense spending should know that China is very smart, they have planned this out for the next several decades. they have a plan and they are working on it. they know what they are doing.
 
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ember

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Is China expanding their military industrial facilities? That's the important part. Just making sure that you have the potential to start surge production of military assets on an unprecedented scale.
 
TK3600

TK3600

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Jono said:
as various members have pointed out and I agree that a 7.2% increase is not bad at all.
My argument is based on the following:
1, China is sending out a strong signal that it is still an economy-focused regional power, and its defense budget is commensurate with the size of its economy. The US thus cannot play up its China-threat narrative on this front, at least in Asia.
2, actual purchasing power parity is higher in terms of Yuan. for every ship the US can build, China can build 2 to 3 for the same price and faster, albeit slightly inferior in terms of quality.
3, compared to the US, China's inflation is much lower (<2% ?), and GDP growth (forecast is 6 to 6.5%) is much higher. Also, a higher percentage of its defense budget actually goes to equipment and materials whereas in the US a lot of money goes to salary and personnel/veteran welfare.
So may I be so bold as to argue that China can put its defense budget to much better and more efficient use compared to the US and that a 7.2% increase in terms of Yuan is good enough?
We armchair warriors may cry foul and cringe at such a "modest" increase in China's defense budget, but I am sure the Beijing authority has its game plan all thought out and will be patient with its strategic objectives. After all, why wake up the US when it is clearly sleepwalking into disasters at its present course by its long-arm jurisdiction over friends or foes alike, sanctioning anyone and their dogs who dare to disobey and hurting the major interests of its own allies like blowing up the Nord Stream 2?
Click to expand...
The Chinese spending is effectively rising faster than US due to inflation change and cost efficiency. US is also wasting money and stockpile in Ukraine. Japan's spending is going up but that barely offset American wastefulness in Ukraine.

The net change is more or less status quo as far as China is concerned.

That said I dislike status quo. I want to witness the greatest build up since WWII starting 2025. 200+ 5th gen plane/drone a year. 2 nuclear carriers every 4 years along with its escorts. You get the idea. Should be totally doable with 2.5% of 2025 gdp every year. 2.5% is low enough to not slow down economy but not so high to become inefficient.

Back then technology was not on par with US so you could say ramping up production isn't good. Nowadays the tech is on par, and somewhat ahead by 2025. It is time to committ. Start the build up 2025 and solve the American problem by early 2030s.
 
Jono

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
The Chinese spending is effectively rising faster than US due to inflation change and cost efficiency. US is also wasting money and stockpile in Ukraine. Japan's spending is going up but that barely offset American wastefulness in Ukraine.

The net change is more or less status quo as far as China is concerned.

That said I dislike status quo. I want to witness the greatest build up since WWII starting 2025. 200+ 5th gen plane/drone a year. 2 nuclear carriers every 4 years along with its escorts. You get the idea. Should be totally doable with 2.5% of 2025 gdp every year. 2.5% is low enough to not slow down economy but not so high to become inefficient.

Back then technology was not on par with US so you could say ramping up production isn't good. Nowadays the tech is on par, and somewhat ahead by 2025. It is time to committ. Start the build up 2025 and solve the American problem by early 2030s.
Click to expand...
I understand your sentiment perfectly well because I have the same impulse and desire to see China committed to a massive military build-up, but this kind of ego-boosting and chest-thumping actually plays into America's hand in the China-threat narrative. At the moment China is focused on its RECP, BRI, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization partners, and rightly so.
The economy always occupies the top spot at the heart of the Beijing Government. Seeing how the US is heading into recession and the unavoidable Treasury Bond/Debt default in June/July, how the US is going to fund its defense budget is a big unknown.
yeah, I believe China's defense budget is good enough in terms of area access denial to US naval forces at the western Pacific theatre. Anyway, China is not going to invade the US mainland at the end of the day.
However, there may be black swan events where the economic plan of China gets derailed, such as Taiwan formally declaring independence, the PH coastguard vessel opening fire on Chinese fishing vessels or occupying some SCS islands claimed by China, or US planes/ships clashing with China's at SCS or Taiwan Strait. Under these possible scenarios China would have no choice but to react with brute force.
in conclusion, China is caught in an uncomfortable position, defense budget too high-->neighbours scared, too low-->US perceives you being weak and attacks. 7.2% increase looks like a good balance to me.
 
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