China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[TK3600]

So let me get this straight, you are arguing two things.

1) That the PRC's current defense spending is appropriate given the extremely elevated threat environment it is in.
2) That inflation, particularly wage inflation, will consume most or even all of the extra defense spending the US and Japan are piling on.

Is this correct? If so, can you explain why?

PRC's spending is unacceptable.

Inflation however will consume most of American defense budget increase, on top of stupidly expensive Ukraine adventure. The amount spent affecting China might as well be going down. It already manifest in Taiwan arms sale delayed and going into Ukraine. Japan's large budget increase will be a positive effect, but it serves mostly to compensate lesser American involvement. Ultimately Japanese is miniscule next to US China struggle.

 

[Hood_Rat]

PRC's spending is unacceptable.

Inflation however will consume most of American defense budget increase, on top of stupidly expensive Ukraine adventure. The amount spent affecting China might as well be going down. It already manifest in Taiwan arms sale delayed and going into Ukraine. Japan's large budget increase will be a positive effect, but it serves mostly to compensate lesser American involvement. Ultimately Japanese is miniscule next to US China struggle.

Have you crunched the numbers indicating that this is the case?
Also the Ukrainian support fund is separate from the US formal defense budget so it's absolutely not true that the Ukraine adventure will impinge on their defense spending.

 

[BoraTas]

Pretty much everyone around China increased their military spending by 15% this year. The US increased its spending by 8% and Japan increased it by 26%. So I expected around 15% for China. Considering Japan's anemic spending until now, its stagnant economy and the depreciation of the Yen in 2022, Japan can not be set as a benchmark. But falling behind the US is absolutely not acceptable.

I can see why they just increased it by 7.2% though. The US increased its spending by 8% and has really high inflation. Thus the real increase is very low for them. So the guys in Beijing likely decided that a 7.2% increase is enough for keeping up with what the catch-up plan envisions for 2023.

My other theory is these increases are planned multi years beforehand. This is likely true too.

I still have problems with these 2 though. The first means Beijing is interested in only the bare minimum. The second means they are not willing to revise their plans unless they have to. I wish our politicians in Europe were this prudent and obsessed with efficiency LOL. But we face no real threat, unlike China.

Have you crunched the numbers indicating that this is the case?
Also the Ukrainian support fund is separate from the US formal defense budget so it's absolutely not true that the Ukraine adventure will impinge on their defense spending.

Replenishment of spent land warfare equipment will require extra spending going forward. As a pro-China guy, I am pleased with what is happening in the USA. They are going on a spending frenzy to replenish the stuff they spent. Most of what was sent were old things that are not produced anymore. They are also useless in a WESTPAC scenario. What's better is some of the items will require the re-establishment of manufacturing lines and they abolished Pentagon's limits on ordering the said munitions. US congress members jumped on this to look tough and generate jobs for their districts. Gotta love US politics and its money eating relationship with the arms industry.

 

[gelgoog]

Japan is in the middle of a huge naval buildup with their frigates among other ships.
China needs to counter this naval build up. It also needs to seriously beef up its nuclear weapons deterrent.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

a bigger problem is their acquisition process, which I assume is more cumbersome and wasteful than China's.

Wasteful? That's a f.. Ng big understatement for Japanese defense acquisitions program, especially buying American products that are not only have high purchase price but an even higher maintenance cost. And the beauty is that they don't even receive the hardware they paid and charged for 9 years.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630808611437043714

 

[Biscuits]

It is a questionable budget to say the least.

Given that Beijing has a near perfect track record of being a rational, analytical and population representative actor, I would say that irresponsibility is very far down the list on reasons why the budget does not increase, even if it can't be completely dismissed.

More likely, China has either shunted most of its spending into less visible bookkeeping. Or it has overwhelming confidence in its qualitative edge combined with the tyranny of distance is enough. Combination of both factors is also possible.

Alternatively, China may not be planning to fight conventionally at all, and they would respond to American conventional aggression with tactical nuclear ultimatum.

In theory, because the PLA is a private army/security of the communist and worker organizations in the nation, China could shunt most of the personnel cost budget into political administration costs rather than military, freeing up most of it for training and procurement.

 

[tankphobia]

It is a questionable budget to say the least.

Given that Beijing has a near perfect track record of being a rational, analytical and population representative actor, I would say that irresponsibility is very far down the list on reasons why the budget does not increase, even if it can't be completely dismissed.

More likely, China has either shunted most of its spending into less visible bookkeeping. Or it has overwhelming confidence in its qualitative edge combined with the tyranny of distance is enough. Combination of both factors is also possible.

Alternatively, China may not be planning to fight conventionally at all, and they would respond to American conventional aggression with tactical nuclear ultimatum.

In theory, because the PLA is a private army/security of the communist and worker organizations in the nation, China could shunt most of the personnel cost budget into political administration costs rather than military, freeing up most of it for training and procurement.

May also just be geopolitical, China does not benefit from a rapid increase in budget if the reaction will be a severe jump in budget for its enemies, better they take this boil the frog approach where the West will also do slow increase while continuing to tolerate inefficiencies and corruption within its MIC, which would be quickly quashed in the case of a west that is actually preparing for war in China.

In the mean time China is rapidly closing the gap with the US without them reacting all that strongly to it, the US currently do not have enough political capital to match military build-up speed despite internal messaging for war in the news.

 

[Overbom]

Pretty much everyone around China increased their military spending by 15% this year. The US increased its spending by 8% and Japan increased it by 26%. So I expected around 15% for China. Considering Japan's anemic spending until now, its stagnant economy and the depreciation of the Yen in 2022, Japan can not be set as a benchmark. But falling behind the US is absolutely not acceptable.

US had inflation of 6.5% in 2022. So while its 8% increased military spending increase makes for good headlines, its actual increase is probably at about 1.5%. it isn't as impressive as the MSM and think tankers make it to be.

Compared to China, it had inflation rate of 2% in 2022. Then also keep in mind how tight it holds the leash on its defence companies, and I wouldn't be surprised if the actual inflation in the MIC was less than 2%. So with a 7.2% increase, the real increase is at least 5.2% (maybe add another 0.5% on top).

 

[niwashi]

May also just be geopolitical

Perhaps there’s also the factor of a greatly reduced defence pressure from the north as Russia will be bogged down in Ukraine for quite a while… ?

 

[supersnoop]

US had inflation of 6.5% in 2022. So while its 8% increased military spending increase makes for good headlines, its actual increase is probably at about 1.5%. it isn't as impressive as the MSM and think tankers make it to be.

Compared to China, it had inflation rate of 2% in 2022. Then also keep in mind how tight it holds the leash on its defence companies, and I wouldn't be surprised if the actual inflation in the MIC was less than 2%. So with a 7.2% increase, the real increase is at least 5.2% (maybe add another 0.5% on top).

Will PLA keep up with the latest USN bathroom technologies with such an increase?

Carbon fiber sinks!

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