I've previously theorised on the forum that Okinawa would be possible in the future
But in any case, the Miyajima Islands do look very vulnerable, if Japan decides to join the US in a war against China
And the military balance looks like it will shift even further in the Western Pacific.
My base scenario (a Chinese increase in military spending from 1.7% to 2.5%) sees the 30year stock of advanced weapons in China double in the space of 7 years from 2022-2029. Then there would be another 50% increase in the 6 year period from the 2029-2035. There's a whole bunch of assumptions here, but you get the idea
So even if Japan doubles military spending and the US arms up somewhat to 4% of GDP, the military balance will continue to shift sharply in China's favour in the Western Pacific
Just to expand on this, suppose China continues to build every 5 years: 1 Aircraft Carrier, 20 AEGIS-type Destroyers and 20 Frigates
So by 2029, the Chinese fleet would comprise: 4 carriers, 80 AEGIS-type Destroyers and 80 Frigates for example
Now, such a fleet structure looks too heavy in terms of surface warships versus carriers.
So I expect future production would focus more on carriers
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So today I see reporting on Japan officially doubling military spending to 2% of GDP
If I look at the announced policy and procurement changes, none of these would make much difference to Chinese calculations
The biggest change is counter-strike capabilities against mainland China, but remember that China can field far greater counter-strike capabilities that can cripple the Japanese Home Islands
Plus they intend to pay for this with tax increases, but bear in mind that the tax base is getting smaller as Japan is deindustrialising as it faces greater competition, primarily from factories and research institutes in China.
For example, Japan currently exports roughly half of its total production of automobiles
Call it 5 million vehicles exported per year @ $20K = $100 Billion.
But Japan is so far behind in terms of electric vehicle technology compared to China or Tesla. Plus Chinese factories can produce vehicles at a lower cost than any in Japan. So I expect most of Japan's vehicle exports to disappear in the future. Therefore the domestic Japanese auto industry would halve in size.