China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

They all sound so different than what I thought they'd sound like. It is scary.

... what do you expect them to sound like?

Anyways, the stream has just ended.

 

[siegecrossbow]

... what do you expect them to sound like?

Anyways, the stream has just ended.

Not like old guys but closer to other analysts I listen to. I thought Patch sounded like JiveTurkey (SubBrief) with a hint of Ward Carroll thrown in and Bltizo sounded like Shi Lao, except speaking American style English instead of Mandarin Chinese. If you made them read video game content it would sound like your typical office Christmas party at a tech firm (Patch being the young tech lead and Bltizo the foreign intern from Australia or New Zealand).

I hope Patch and Bltizo don’t find my observation offensive lol. To be frank, I probably look and sound nothing like how people imagine I look and sound.

 

[AndrewS]

I notice it is 3 hours. Could anyone summarise the key points?

 

[BMUFL]

I notice it is 3 hours. Could anyone summarise the key points?

I mean, it's 3 hours of unfocused conversation. It's almost impossible to summarize it.

Basically, it's what Patch has been saying for a while now. In no particular order:

• Most "normies" are idiots and being fed bullshit, and a lot of so-called China-watchers and OSINTers are charlatans.
• SSKs are basically deathtraps within 1IC due to modern PLAN capabilities.
  • Underwater warfare is a lot more complex than most people imagine.
• PLAN are more capable than the western general public gives it credit for.
• JASSM is awesome but there aren't enough of them currently to do anything meaningful if things go hot.
• Tomahawk is not magic, and its capabilities are a lot more limited that most people imagine.
• US Navy is in terrible shape due to maintenance issues.
  • No thanks to a certain waste of time and resources known as GWoT.
  • Also apparently CPOs are assholes...
• C:MO and DCS are not even remotely reflective of real life.
• Dunking on many people, both public figures and random Internet people, including certain infamous individuals on r*dd*t.
  • Also, some individuals on this forum may be a bit overly emotional...

Obviously it's not a complete list. Again, it's almost impossible to summarize a 3-hour-long random chat/Q&A session. So if you are doing something long and tedious, consider listening this not-a-podcast in the background.

EDIT: The list is based on what I can remember, so it might not be accurate. Please let me know if I am misrepresenting anything.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I mean, it's 3 hours of unfocused conversation. It's almost impossible to summarize it.

Basically, it's what Patch has been saying for a while now. In no particular order:

• Most "normies" are idiots and being fed bullshit, and a lot of so-called China-watchers and OSINTers are charlatans.
• SSKs are basically deathtraps within 1IC due to modern PLAN capabilities.
  • Underwater warfare is a lot more complex than most people imagine.
• PLAN are more capable than the western general public gives it credit for.
• JASSM is awesome but there aren't enough of them currently to do anything meaningful if things go hot.
• Tomahawk is not magic, and its capabilities are a lot more limited that most people imagine.
• US Navy is in terrible shape due to maintenance issues.
  • No thanks to a certain waste of time and resources known as GWoT.
• C:MO and DCS are not even remotely reflective of real life.
• Dunking on many people, both public figures and random Internet people, including certain infamous individuals on r*dd*t.
  • Also, some individuals on this forum may be a bit overly emotional...

Obviously it's not a complete list. Again, it's almost impossible to summarize a 3-hour-long random chat/Q&A session. So if you are doing something long and tedious, consider listening this not-a-podcast in the background.

I felt it was a good time and place for Patch to vent his frustration.

Do we know if they are doing more of these in the future? If so I wonder if it is possible for them to focus on specific areas.

 

[BMUFL]

I felt it was a good time and place for Patch to vent his frustration.

Do we know if they are doing more of these in the future? If so I wonder if it is possible for them to focus on specific areas.

Well, the answer for both is "maybe"; I can speak for neither Patch, Toaster, I_H8_Y8s, nor @Blitzo. I guess you can ask Blitzo for that, since he is the one actually doing this.

 

[Staedler]

I notice it is 3 hours. Could anyone summarise the key points?

I posted some timestamps over in the 093/094 thread. BMUFL has the general thrust right.

09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I posted some timestamps over in the 093/094 thread. BMUFL has the general thrust right.

I think your post should be cross-posted here as your post is more suitable with this thread. Great find, though, lots of thanks!

---

Ran through the podcast again to fetch some timestamps.


22:33 Toaster talks about the Russian vs China comparison. They differ even in philosophy of their weapons system. PLA weaponry has a lot more in common with US/NATO than Russia.

40:04 Patch talks about Tomahawks
Center for Naval Analysis + Defence Intelligence Agency (1993 study) after 2nd salvo, ~50% of all Tomahawks sent was shot down by Iraq - more didn't hit the target due to bad terrain map, etc. Tomahawks also fail 10-15% of the time in their initial pre-cruise flight phase. So Burke salvo size is about 16 due to this and VLS power constraints, etc. This is before considering jamming and shootdowns.

45:20 Toaster mentions US submarines communicate to satellites on a 3 Mbit pipe, so they have to circle at periscope depth for hours to get data to do Tomahawk strikes

1:10:00 Patch says J20 availability rates are 85-95% partially because they don't run their individual airframes as hard and partially because they have robust logistics. Segways into USA having an habit of overusing their airframes and submarines. Toaster mentions early VA boats are sent out for 6-9 months instead of the 4-6 during the Cold War resulting in the boat needing to be put in maintenance for 2-3 years after the deployment. Patch mentions PLA doesn't defer maintenance as much as the USA does and the PLA spreads hours between frames more evenly than the US. Toaster mentions USS Boise as an example; came back 2015 and has been in maintenance for 7+ years now.

1:39:00 Toaster mentions original 093 were close to Sturgeon class boats. New 093 are decent, about LA class. (Patch mentions 688i) Expects them to eventually reach early-mid VA noise by 2030. Early VA noise level is already disminishing returns where further quieting doesn't make that much difference.

1:57:25 SSK topic starts here. Modern Radars can detect submarines at periscope depth. Doing Target Motion Analysis with passive requires a few hours of zig-zagging to get ranging solution. SSKs are slow and bad at it and so they need to go to periscope depth which exposes them tremendously. SSK don't have great evasive characteristics because their underwater endurance is sub-hour and is basically a suicide mission. Toaster mentions torpedoes like Mk 48 have functional ranges of 3-5 nm max because anything further than that gives too much time for evasion and detection of your submarine.

2:13:20 Patch denies insitutional knowledge exists

2:41:45 Toaster mentions Li-ion, AIP, etc. help but don't solve SSK's fundamental problems of extremely limited underwater endurance.

2:51:34 Patch "the J20 is significantly superior to just about every single United States aircraft in production right now"

2:59:18 India slander

3:05:00 Patch asserts PLA can invade Okinawa even if US, Japan, Taiwan, (maybe even) SK as well get involved.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

PLAN are more capable than the western general public gives it credit for.

I firmly believe and truly hope that holds true for the rest of the PLA too.

JASSM is awesome but there aren't enough of them currently to do anything meaningful if things go hot.

Tomahawk is not magic, and its capabilities are a lot more limited that most people imagine.

In general, I think Patch, Blitzo, Toaster and (maybe?) Y8 meant that firing Tomahawks, Harpoons, JASSM etc isn't as simple as "fire-and-forget, 100% guarantee hit on target, nobody can defend against superior American missiles, blah blah blah". It involves a lot of metric and circumstances, which @Steadler's post have listed out as below:

40:04 Patch talks about Tomahawks
Center for Naval Analysis + Defence Intelligence Agency (1993 study) after 2nd salvo, ~50% of all Tomahawks sent was shot down by Iraq - more didn't hit the target due to bad terrain map, etc. Tomahawks also fail 10-15% of the time in their initial pre-cruise flight phase. So Burke salvo size is about 16 due to this and VLS power constraints, etc. This is before considering jamming and shootdowns.

Honestly, this does make me genuinely worried about the lower number of VLS cells (64) on the Chinese 052Ds compared to their American and Japanese counterparts (96). Because no matter how accurate, powerful and resilient your radar sets and fire control suites are, I think the volume of firepower that every ship can put out is also a key factor in reliably dictating a battle's outcome.

C:MO and DCS are not even remotely reflective of real life.

But then, you got people who make bank on Youtube using DCS and C:MO e.g. Grim Reapers & Growling Sidewinder. So that does tell something, I guess.

22:33 Toaster talks about the Russian vs China comparison. They differ even in philosophy of their weapons system. PLA weaponry has a lot more in common with US/NATO than Russia.

Aaaaaaaaaaaand yet again, you have loads after loads of people who dismisses Chinese military equipment as mere "sh1tty Chinese plastic copy of useless Russian weapons that would never work".

Yet, perhaps it is better to let them sleep - Even if you have a sledgehammer in your hand.

1:10:00 Patch says J20 availability rates are 85-95% partially because they don't run their individual airframes as hard and partially because they have robust logistics.

I'd like to have Patch's comment of the current status and degree of logistical capability across the PLA in general...

Segways into USA having an habit of overusing their airframes and submarines. Toaster mentions early VA boats are sent out for 6-9 months instead of the 4-6 during the Cold War resulting in the boat needing to be put in maintenance for 2-3 years after the deployment.

Did the US really shutted down most of their production lines such that airframes and submarines are not enough and had to be overused?

Patch mentions PLA doesn't defer maintenance as much as the USA does and the PLA spreads hours between frames more evenly than the US. Toaster mentions USS Boise as an example; came back 2015 and has been in maintenance for 7+ years now.

Great thing to know that China learnt and kept this important lesson from WW2 in heart.

2:51:34 Patch "the J20 is significantly superior to just about every single United States aircraft in production right now"

That was a fr1ck1ng massive surprise to hear, honestly. I have always put the F-35 on high regard, lol.

Looks, I don't want to mean anything rude to Patch, but I just hope that he is not saying that to gaslight the SDF because of the J-20 vs F-22 incident that happened late last August.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

2:59:18 India slander

Found this live stream comment when Patch, Blitzo, Toast and Y8 were talking about the Indian military:



I recalled this video by Liu Xiaofei from November last year:

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To sum it up:

In late 2021, a former Assistant Chief of Staff of the Indian Navy vowed (indirectly) that the Indian Navy can definitely perform much better than the Indian Army against the Chinese "aggression".

The former CoS assistant claimed that after New Delhi delivered a final warning to Beijing (which is then promptly ignored), India could use the help of QUAD surveillance and reconnaisance efforts plus Indian Navy facilities in the Andaman Islands to detain ALL tankers and cargo ships that are heading to China in the Nicobar Islands (yes, you heard that right).

He predicted that the PLAN - While already facing immense pressure from the USN and JMSDF in Westpac - Would be forced to send only a few of their warships to the Nicobar Islands to relieve those detained cargo ships and oil tankers.

Once Chinese warships are racing towards Nicobar, the Indian Navy's Visakhapatnam DDGs would form a blockade at the northern mouth of the Malacca Strait. Those Indian destroyers would then launch their beloved Brahmos supersonic missiles and definitely wreck the Chinese warships, and hence, securing India's dominant position and supremacy in the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Strait.

At that time, I found that statement by a seemingly very important former military official rather difficult to believe.

But now, man, I see...