China's Anti-Access ASBM Strategy [Defense News]

Surely Chinese ballistic missile tests in the SCS especially, would be worthy of reporting/commenting by the likes of the Pentagon?

They comment regularly enough on ballistic missile tests deep within China.

There is also the added safety concerns for testing in the open seas. At a minimum, notifications and warnings must be communicated and an exclusion zone established prior to the test. That would be as good as an open invite to all foreign naval intelligence agencies to get assets on station waiting to collect all data they can on the test.

So testing in the SCS would be extremely ill advised for China.

It would also be extremely unlikely for a test of such significance in the SCS to go unnoticed or unreported.

taxiya said:

Treat it just as "Some says it, I hear it."

However, I don't think existence of an event is of detail. One either know or don't.

He may be "huyou" if he said it in a CCTV talk show. But he could be very serious when he talked to internal audiences. I have said that the audience in that video are not Tom and John from the street. They are people from the R&D institution of the rocket program which is the same institute of missile development. Put it in this way, it is like someone talking about testing event of F-22 to people from B-2 developers. Do you think B-2 guys would not laugh at him if he said something that F-22 could not have done?

Why do you think the Chinese Wiki page is any evidence of his "non credibility"? Anybody including you and me can just go and create a page like that saying whatever one want to say.

I know his background, he is in the same class as those Admirals and Generals in the CCTV talk shows. Some of them are quite well respected among netizens, some are called "huyou". One has to pick what to believe, NOT based on who said it, but on things from other sources that can be used to cross exam.

Click to expand...

Why are you so defensive. I merely pointed out that this guy knows very little regarding military matters, which is a fact, as his expertise is international relations or politics and not military engineering or military affairs. (He is not a member of the PLA or military intelligence to begin with)

So he is giving a casual lecture to a bunch of rocket scientists on politics and diplomacy. How does this make him any more credible regarding military affairs? If his audience is the CMC then i will agree, ye his audience is not an average joe, and he will have to be careful with his military analysis and details. Since his audience is just some random rocket scientists, especially those that are not involved in the development of DF21D or DF26, he could say whatever he wants regarding ASBM and get away with it. If those people are indeed closely related to China's ASBM program or even just military ballistic missile programs, they will know a lot more than him and will not need him to remind them of any tests.

The lecture took place at Renmin University, what makes you think the audience is "internal" or are related to rocket development?

Ive found something interesting



starting at 1:45 ish.
It described 2016 July, which was when SCS Arbitration results were just announced, as 战云密布 (filled with the threat of war). The PLAN "不畏强敌" held no fear of superior enemy forces and cooperated with rocket forces to deter the enemy. The rocket forces prepared dozens of a new type of missile from thousand(s) of kilometers away as part of the joint action.

Now combined with

All i can say is im glad we made it out peacefully(?) and ASBMs definitely have pretty good operation capability as early as 2016. (first revealed to public in september 2015)

watdahek said:

Why are you so defensive. I merely pointed out that this guy knows very little regarding military matters, which is a fact, as his expertise is international relations or politics and not military engineering or military affairs. (He is not a member of the PLA or military intelligence to begin with)

So he is giving a casual lecture to a bunch of rocket scientists on politics and diplomacy. How does this make him any more credible regarding military affairs? If his audience is the CMC then i will agree, ye his audience is not an average joe, and he will have to be careful with his military analysis and details. Since his audience is just some random rocket scientists, especially those that are not involved in the development of DF21D or DF26, he could say whatever he wants regarding ASBM and get away with it. If those people are indeed closely related to China's ASBM program or even just military ballistic missile programs, they will know a lot more than him and will not need him to remind them of any tests.

The lecture took place at Renmin University, what makes you think the audience is "internal" or are related to rocket development?

Click to expand...

I don't know your background and knowledge of Chinese space program or any other Chinese program like mechanics and radar etc.. These rocket scientists almost certainly knows DF21D and DF26 very well, if you know the structure of Chinese missile/rocket program. The two are the same institute, they are 5th, 6th institutes of Chinese Space Ministry (past, today's CASC). Even a guy is not directly involved, he/she will be sitting in the same complex. There use to be Machinery Ministry 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. Now most of them are renamed to be Corporation Groups. But the task and structure remains the same.

Then for this speaker to talk about something to people with good background knowledge, I don't think one can say he know very little, at least not easily discredit him.

2018-04-16

My understanding is that this DF-21D brigade (the first and only one so far?) has entered combat operation after test and trial of the missile since its establishment.

P.S. the type on the red banner is blurred in the original video, not by me.

It's not DF-21, but the longer ranged DF-26.

Keyword here is 核常兼备，meaning both nuclear and conventional capable. That description is for DF-26.

taxiya said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

2018-04-16
View attachment 46316
My understanding is that this DF-21D brigade (the first and only one so far?) has entered combat operation after test and trial of the missile since its establishment.

P.S. the type on the red banner is blurred in the original video, not by me.

Click to expand...

longmarch said:

It's not DF-21, but the longer ranged DF-26.

Keyword here is 核常兼备，meaning both nuclear and conventional capable. That description is for DF-26.

Click to expand...

Then the video is deceiving, it showed DF-21D but talked about DF-36.

The Chinese rocket force appears to be building a new base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea. It is plausible that the unit is dedicated to the anti-ship.
Between DF 21 and DF 26 they cover almost everywhere between Indian Ocean and Guam. good place to put the ASBM base there. None too soon about time

Hendrik_2000 said:

Between DF 21 and DF 26 they cover almost everywhere between Indian Ocean and Guam. good place to put the ASBM base there. None too soon about time

Click to expand...

Not quite to Guam, huh? Remember, the farther south you go, the tighter those range radii become.

Well, you did say, almost!

it's been too long; i've forgotten how to post radius maps