China tests ASAT

UFOArriving · Jan 21, 2007

Re: Chinese Successful Anti-Satelite Test

Duran said:
(Crobato, I don't mean to be offensive, just trying to discuss logically.) So all other countries should thank US for not militarizing space then? How about rephrase with 'A-bomb test' or 'H-bomb test' in your above sentence. Does it sound logic? Don't forget US have had anti-satellite technology since then. Maybe one of the reasons why US stoped the program was because no other country could match US in anti-satellite technology and they didn't have to waste money to pursue more advanced technology. At late 1980s, CIS had already showed its weakness in competing with US militarily because of economic failure.

Secondly, 'militarizing space?' Isn't using spy satellites to probe other countries a kind of military action? If you don't have the intention of attacking others, why bother?

For the coming February (Jan. 29th to Feb. 8th), another US-Japan joint wargame is going to be held. http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,130501+132007011901072,00.html (Sorry it is in traditional Chinese, because I can not find related information in Japan sources. I believe it is reliable because the news is from Central News Agency, an official news agency in Taiwan.) This time both countries include future tensions in the Taiwan Strait within excercise scenarios.

It is really unusual that China continually annouced its weaponry developments within the couple of weeks, from Mr. Hu's request for a strong navy, announcement of national defence white paper, J10, testing of anti-satellite missile, current circulation of H-9 and J14. It did not match conventional image of China in its dealing of internal military affairs. It certainly does not match China's leader Mr. Hu's style. 'Who's Hu' was the headline for most newspaper before his first official visit to the United States. There must be something beneath the curtain.

Oh maybe China shot down the old satellite just because it did not forcast the bad weather in Califonia so that China military authority failed to long FCOJ in New York Board of Trade. :roll:

Hi, All. First time visitor, first time poster

Nice to meet ya'll.

I believe the section in Bold above has something to do with this. Traditionally China has always regarded Taiwan as part of the country, and has been very sensitive on any foreign interferrence into the matter. Bush administration has been pushing the limit further and further ever since he came to power, the named exercise above will be the very first time where both Japan and US include future tensions in the Taiwan Strait within an excercise scenarios. I remember reading somewhere that China has already logged a diplomatic protest against US and Japan on this issue...

I don't believe China wants a war with US, this is probably China's way to make the Bush administration think harder before it really decide to get involved when the worst becomes reality.

That been said, I don't believe China plans to invade Taiwan any time soon, there are currently many messy political developments going on around president Chen Shuibian of taiwan, and there is a chance that he might take the risk and declare independence before the 2008 Olympic in Beijing. The test is probably served as a warning shot meant more for Taiwan than for US/Japan.

UFOArriving · Jan 21, 2007

SampanViking said:
Well I think Utelore has made the most relevant comments so far and I would like to add a little context:

2007 is officially a PRC "Year of Resisting Taiwanese Independance" meaning that the DPP have to be actively discouraged from trying anything in the run up to the 2008 Presidential Elections.

I see the ASAT test specifically in that context, as a very large stick to discourage the seperatists agenda, doubtless to be followed up with an equally large carrot or two for the benefit of Cross Straits compatriots.

Bluntly, Tiawan has been told it can no longer count on effective US assistance even if the US wished to give it, as the US will no longer be able to guarantee the survivability of its essential orbital assets.

This is probably the Military "coup de grace" against the DPP that the KMT/CCP engagement starting 2004 was Politically.

The wider military message from China about its ability to defend its territory needs no further explaination.

Also some of you guys need to cool it, I am sure you all know who you are

Totally agree, right on the money!

UFOArriving · Jan 21, 2007

Finn McCool said:
Obviously, this test is a milestone in what may become the "2nd Space Race", a multipolar space race.

I was thinking about this earlier; the militarization of space may be the only way that humanity will ever make the serious technological progress it needs to make in order to get over the "Earth-Orbit Hump". At least for a while it seems that space based weapons will only be defensive in nature. I can forsee armed satillites designed to intercept ground based ASAT weapons and ICBMs, followed by satillites to kill satillites, followed by manned spacecraft. The future is so clear. The WWIII potential in all of this is that a nation with heavy space based capability and ABM weapons based in space would be tempted to use its nukes on another nuclear nation because this technology would invalidate MAD. And that is a bad thing. And of course it is probable that at some point if this possible future pans out that someone will base offensive weapons in space designed to target the surface of the Earth.

Sadly, that might not be the case here, it is always cheaper to buy a bullet than get a shield, the space arms race could eventually end up with both side full of "bullets" and no "shield" like the nuke standoff currently - maybe the only way for mankind to united as one is when we saw the UFO coming

UFOArriving · Jan 21, 2007

Spike said:
The Space Preservation Act is a proposed bill in the US Congress. It's purpose is to prevent the use of space-based weapons and land-based systems designed to damage/destroy objects in orbit. It has been submitted as a bill four times from 2001-2005 but each time it has failed to make it out of committee due to unfavourable comments from the Department of Defence.

Interestingly, China and Russia have previously voiced support for the de-weaponization of space in the United Nations. Not sure how China will handle the diplomatic fallot for this test.

I am thinking the only way to get US back to the negotiation table is by showing them their own satellites could be in jeperdy

UFOArriving · Jan 21, 2007

Sea Dog said:
I'd actually like to know more about this test. Doesn't seem to be much of a big deal. China apparently moved this weather satellite so it would be in-plane making it an easy target. They orbit raised it's altitude and moved it's ground track. Looks like they validated a vehicle with an intrinsic ability to hit targets with predictable tracks out of the atmosphere (which is not technically hard), but haven't shown a real ability to be very capable against real satellite targets.

I heard all US targets for the missle shield carries a homing device broadcasting its position, and US still missed hitting it in the last few rounds of testing. The orbit move was probably intended to get it out of the default space reserved for its replacement. Eitherway, it is not easy to hit another moving target with a missile traveling at 12000 miles per hour

UFOArriving · Jan 21, 2007

Sea Dog said:
Actually, technically very easy if it's done in-plane. And that's what it appears to be. I'm willing to bet the relative velocity on impact was probably relatively low.

LEO satellite constellations are not all placed at the same precise altitude. And predicting where these fragments would park in orbit is not something easily determined.

It looks like they purposely moved the vehicle and orbit raised it to make it an in-plane shot. Coupled with the fact that it has a predictable, stable, in-plane trajectory, it's not that big of a deal at all. Quite easy from a technical POV. Anybody can do that. In fact, it's done all the time in regards to rendevous and docking maneuvers. If they fired on a cross track LEO sat with an orbital velocity of 5,000 - 7,000 m/s (of course dependant on actual altitude) I would be impressed.

No. Of course it's a threat to U.S. and allied space satellites. I'm just saying that they haven't demonstrated that much with this test. Nor does this prove that U.S. and allied satellites are definitely at risk. And I'm not too surprised by the orbit raising maneuver. I'm more concerned they are working toward this capability at all. But it's something the U.S. will deal with if they ever do get a robust capability to destroy space assets at will in any plane, at any altitude. This test doesn't prove it.

Cool, so I am guessing there will be more following up tests from the Chinese side?:roll:

Gollevainen · Jan 21, 2007

Why not taking a seccond look to our forum rules (link is in my signature) and find out what it says about douple, tripple and quadro- posting...

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Sea Dog · Jan 21, 2007

UFOArriving said:
I heard all US targets for the missle shield carries a homing device broadcasting its position, and US still missed hitting it in the last few rounds of testing. The orbit move was probably intended to get it out of the default space reserved for its replacement. Eitherway, it is not easy to hit another moving target with a missile traveling at 12000 miles per hour

That has been tossed around for a long time. But it's been put down as false. U.S. missile tests are not validated by any types of homing devices to guide warhead to target. That's pretty much internet garbage.

As far as this ASAT test, it's not technically difficult at all. It's rather easy actually. The USA and Russia both have done this for eons. And China got alot of this know-how from U.S. engineers at Loral. It's very rudimentary indeed and is done in the civilian sector all the time to put satellites into their proper planes and orbits. Actually hitting something though is not done by anyone due to screwing up LEO orbits with debris. But I guess China wanted to do it for some reason.

And it doesn't matter why they moved the orbit. The result was that it was turned into an in-plane track at a higher orbit with a lower velocity. Hence.....easy target. Nothing really fancy at all. Here's more:

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Relatively simple technology suffices to take out a satellite the way the Chinese government apparently did last week, space weapons analysts say. Essentially any country that can put a satellite in orbit could launch a weapon to destroy one.

Cool, so I am guessing there will be more following up tests from the Chinese side?

I doubt it. The fact that so many nations use LEO sats now, they may not want to do any more testing. Not very good for international relations, international respect, or business relations.

SampanViking · Jan 21, 2007

Gosh!! US send men to the moon in 1969 - hardly difficult!! the moons so big how could you miss!!

Well thats how some posters here are sounding to me in their dismissal of China's succesful ASAT test.

Irrespective of elative ease or diffuclty, it was still a major achievement and one which will have provided a considerable wealth of test data to assit in future tests of both ground and orbital missions.

I would also view this test as a part of China's ongoing Space Program and would advise keeping ears and eyes sharp for any little hints that come from ongoing Sat launches and this years planned Manned Mission.

To those who point out that other powers can probably do the same to Chinese Satellites, you are quite right. Except of course that China is not planning to launch attacks against the territories of other major powers and that this test was about denying orbital access above China itself.

Sea Dog · Jan 21, 2007

SampanViking said:
Gosh!! US send men to the moon in 1969 - hardly difficult!! the moons so big how could you miss!!

Well thats how some posters here are sounding to me in their dismissal of China's succesful ASAT test.

Irrespective of elative ease or diffuclty, it was still a major achievement and one which will have provided a considerable wealth of test data to assit in future tests of both ground and orbital missions.

To those who point out that other powers can probably do the same to Chinese Satellites, you are quite right. Except of course that China is not planning to launch attacks against the territories of other major powers and that this test was about denying orbital access above China itself.

Well, let me guess who you're talking about.

At any rate, I don't think anybody here is dismissing the test in and of itself. There is no emotion here. Just pointing out that it is not technically difficult to do. It's not a manned lunar mission like what you are comparing it to. Nor was it a difficult intercept on a cross track, like what would be encountered in the real world. One does not need to directly overfly China to use satellite recon data on China. And these same entities are not going to line it up and raise it's altitude to make it an easy shot. This is actually something that may actually have a negative impact on China due to the users of LEO constellations being angered about China testing this capability in these orbital planes.

This test does not prove China can deny the use of satellite assets against it. It just proves that China knows how to launch a missile with some sort of impact vehicle to collide with an orbiting object in-plane. Yeah, that is useful for ASAT. But that knowledge would be more useful if applied to their own satellite assets in more precise orbits.

China tests ASAT

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