china/taiwan news

I know this is theoretical, but does anyone consider America’s response to Georgia and Ukraine to be indicative of how they would respond to Taiwan?

The US and allies goaded these countries into military confrontation with Russia, but the countries were easily defeated ceded territory with no promised support ever given.

Second, the majority opinion inside Taiwan is as someone put it “not to fight alongside Americans, but for Americans to fully carry out all combat”.

ROC equipment is so old, many stories are being written about how PLA is pushing equipment age, defense budget, and manpower to the limits.

F-16A and Mirage-2000 is reaching 30 years old. F-CK-1 is at least 20 years old. Kidd FFG are 40 years old. LaFayette is underarmed. M60 as well. Plus only F-CK-1 is indigenously built.

Even if they were brand new, the real issue is that ROC armed forces requires full scale military reform to defend the island, but it is politically unpopular. Actual combat personnel is historically low.

Does anyone think PRC is not aware of all these things? In my opinion, they have just left it up to Taiwan’s government to determine their own future.

BrightFuture said:

We have lived in the West for most of our lives, we have lived in China, we speak English, we speak Chinese. Do you really think you know more than us when it comes to comparing the West and China?

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What I am doing is insisting that there is validity in the view of history which goes against the PRC narrative and leans towards the U.S. narrative. And this is not the MSM viewpoint.

Do you really think you can have an objective, informed, and non biased point when you haven't lived in China and you can't even speak Chinese? Short answer: you can't; you have far less knowledge and understanding about the topic.

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I have come to this thread to discuss Taiwan. I don’t need to have lived in China to be qualified to discuss Taiwan.

Oh, and one last thing: sorry to break it to you, but some people end up loving China and having those points of view, not because of racism, but because they see the hypocrisy, double standards, imperialism, hubris and bullshit of the West. Usually these people are well informed and know both sides of the coin, that's why they arrive to the inevitable conclusion that China is right.

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Right about what?

supersnoop said:

I know this is theoretical, but does anyone consider America’s response to Georgia and Ukraine to be indicative of how they would respond to Taiwan?

The US and allies goaded these countries into military confrontation with Russia, but the countries were easily defeated ceded territory with no promised support ever given.

Second, the majority opinion inside Taiwan is as someone put it “not to fight alongside Americans, but for Americans to fully carry out all combat”.

ROC equipment is so old, many stories are being written about how PLA is pushing equipment age, defense budget, and manpower to the limits.

F-16A and Mirage-2000 is reaching 30 years old. F-CK-1 is at least 20 years old. Kidd FFG are 40 years old. LaFayette is underarmed. M60 as well. Plus only F-CK-1 is indigenously built.

Even if they were brand new, the real issue is that ROC armed forces requires full scale military reform to defend the island, but it is politically unpopular. Actual combat personnel is historically low.

Does anyone think PRC is not aware of all these things? In my opinion, they have just left it up to Taiwan’s government to determine their own future.

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I think everyone knows these facts anyway. Most news articles about Taiwan talks about whether US will intervene and how Taiwan military is weak and needs reform.

But militaries should plan with the worst case scenario in mind. Which means they must assume that Taiwanese have absolute will to fight till the end. That they will modernize their military quickly. And that US military will fight for Taiwan. With these cases in mind. The question is can PLA win such a fight based on its current hardware and capabilities?

How much US forces can PLA withstand within a Taiwan scenario? 2 carrier battle groups? 5? How about all 10?

If US decides to fight a all out war to defend Taiwan with their entire Naval and Air force? Can China still win given they have huge advantage of being in their own coast?

Max Demian said:

What I am doing is insisting that there is validity in the view of history which goes against the PRC narrative and leans towards the U.S. narrative. And this is not the MSM viewpoint.

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There is none, MSM goes against the PRC leans toward the US narrative.

Max Demian said:

I have come to this thread to discuss Taiwan. I don’t need to have lived in China to be qualified to discuss Taiwan.

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Taiwan is inextricably intertwined with China. It’s Called ROC for a reason.

tamsen_ikard said:

I think everyone knows these facts anyway. Most news articles about Taiwan talks about whether US will intervene and how Taiwan military is weak and needs reform.

If US decides to fight a all out war to defend Taiwan with their entire Naval and Air force? Can China still win given they have huge advantage of being in their own coast?

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If the US considers Taiwan critical to its interests and is willing to forego the cash its companies are making in China, then the logical move for them is to end strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. That means full decoupling and drawing a MAD line over Taiwan.

That would put the PRC in a pretty tight spot. The ball is in their court. 300 warheads against 5000 and the world’s most formidable ABMD shield against them. Taiwan starting to move towards independence. What do they do?

Max Demian said:

If the US considers Taiwan critical to its interests and is willing to forego the cash its companies are making in China, then the logical move for them is to end strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. That means full decoupling and drawing a MAD line over Taiwan.

That would put the PRC in a pretty tight spot. The ball is in their court. 300 warheads against 5000 and the world’s most formidable ABMD shield against them. Taiwan starting to move towards independence. What do they do?

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Do you think if China think it needs 5000 warheads it cannot make them? it has the largest industrial base in the world. It can make 5000 warheads in 6 months if it decides to focus on it. Making nukes is 50 year old tech. It is not all that costly to make either.

China doesn't think US is willing to risk even 1 city to fight a nuclear war with China over Taiwan or even Japan. There is no mythical nuclear umbrella that can save Taiwan or Japan from Chinese nukes. If China nukes Taiwan, do you think US will risk even 1 city for Taiwan? No way.

US doesn't even have 200 cities. And I think Americans are much more smarter than risk even 1 of their cities for a distant empire in Asia.

Max Demian said:

If the US considers Taiwan critical to its interests and is willing to forego the cash its companies are making in China, then the logical move for them is to end strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. That means full decoupling and Taiwan falling under US nuclear umbrella. That would put the PRC in a pretty tight spot. The ball is in their court. 300 warheads against 5000 and the world’s most formidable ABMD shield against them.

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ABMD effectiveness is very questionable, 300 is just a guess and unless US wants to do a first strike nukes won’t matter in a Taiwan scenario.

Max Demian said:

What I am doing is insisting that there is validity in the view of history which goes against the PRC narrative and leans towards the U.S. narrative. And this is not the MSM viewpoint.

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(1) All your comments since the thread was reopened (page 26) haven't mentioned anything about history, or made any argument whatsoever. If you want to present your "theory" now, go ahead, but don't make things up.

(2) Which history? The history where both ROC and the PRC still claim all of China? The history where most nations recognise the province of Taiwan as part of China?

Max Demian said:

I have come to this thread to discuss Taiwan. I don’t need to have lived in China to be qualified to discuss Taiwan.

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I don't need to know about physics to talk about it, but I should know about it to have an informed opinion. The same applies here: yes, you need to have lived in China; yes, you need to have lived in the province of Taiwan (tourism is not living); and yes, it would be better if you knew how to speak Chinese. You are in your right to toss your ignorant position around, but at least don't pretend it isn't cemented on ignorance and lack of knowledge.

By the way, in another post you mentioned how your opinion changed after you visited Taiwan. So your opinion about China comes from one of the most propagandized places of the world against China? You might as well go to Iran and ask them their opinion about America, maybe they will change your mind too. Having an objective and informed opinion is about deeply knowing both sides of the coin – which you clearly don't.

Max Demian said:

Right about what?

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Right about the Taiwan question and right about most things, honestly.

tamsen_ikard said:

Do you think if China think it needs 5000 warheads it cannot make them? it has the largest industrial base in the world. It can make 5000 warheads in 6 months if it decides to focus on it. Making nukes is 50 year old tech. It is not all that costly to make either.

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And your source for this claim is?

China doesn't think US is willing to risk even 1 city to fight a nuclear war with China over Taiwan or even Japan. There is no mythical nuclear umbrella that can save Taiwan or Japan from Chinese nukes. If China nukes Taiwan, do you think US will risk even 1 city for Taiwan? No way.

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The US risked far more in protecting Europe and Japan against the USSR. The imbalance of forces in Europe was such that even if the Soviets launched a conventional offensive, NATO could only stop them with nuclear weapons. A similar imbalance is now developing with Taiwan.

US cannot match China’s industrial might. It can only hope to strangle it with a naval blockade, but that would not save Taiwan.

Therefore, to effectively deter China they need to raise the stakes in the direction where they hold a clear advantage. Either that, or fold out of the Western Pacific.

tamsen_ikard said:

I think everyone knows these facts anyway. Most news articles about Taiwan talks about whether US will intervene and how Taiwan military is weak and needs reform.

But militaries should plan with the worst case scenario in mind. Which means they must assume that Taiwanese have absolute will to fight till the end. That they will modernize their military quickly. And that US military will fight for Taiwan. With these cases in mind. The question is can PLA win such a fight based on its current hardware and capabilities?

How much US forces can PLA withstand within a Taiwan scenario? 2 carrier battle groups? 5? How about all 10?

If US decides to fight a all out war to defend Taiwan with their entire Naval and Air force? Can China still win given they have huge advantage of being in their own coast?

Click to expand...

In this case, I think it’s more productive to discuss specific and real developments such as the proposed weapons acquisitions by ROC and effect of flyovers on readiness.

Otherwise you get into avalanche of “what if” scenarios and the discussion just devolves into some stupid nuclear war scenario as above.

Realistically, I think a serious question is what is the average age of ROCAF combat pilot right now? How many active combat pilots are actually currently enlisted?