China News Thread

[coolgod]

What should China do to ameliorate the legitimate and existential concerns for these countries that can have a win-win outcome for all countries possible

One thing I can think of is opening up temp jobs for foreign workers (e.g. maids, caretakers, masseuse, servers) in niche specialties that don't compete with domestic workers. Some existing examples are like North Korean servers in North Korean restaurants, Japanese voice actress and entertainers engaging with audience in China, KPOP concerts in China, Hong Kong/Taiwan agencies employing foreign "masseuse".

Regardless of the type of services, China must open up its domestic market to foreign services, otherwise other countries will resent China for its enormous trade imbalance and bad things will follow.

 

[doggydogdo]

One thing I can think of is opening up temp jobs for foreign workers (e.g. maids, caretakers, masseuse, servers) in niche specialties that don't compete with domestic workers. Some existing examples are like North Korean servers in North Korean restaurants, Japanese voice actress and entertainers engaging with audience in China, KPOP concerts in China, Hong Kong/Taiwan agencies employing foreign "masseuse".

Regardless of the type of services, China must open up its domestic market to foreign services, otherwise other countries will resent China for its enormous trade imbalance and bad things will follow.

Trade imbalances happen because Chinese good are more competitive than others. Foreign workers would not be competitive in Chinese labour market because they don't speak mandarin.

 

[coolgod]

Trade imbalances happen because Chinese good are more competitive than others. Foreign workers would not be competitive in Chinese labour market because they don't speak mandarin.

Well they better start learning Chinese then, look at how many global service workers learn English just to play a part in the global economy e.g. Philippine, India. How else are other countries suppose to balance their trade with China? Nobody really expects South East Asia to produce goods more competitive than China's.

 

[Moonscape]

The most straightforward way to resolve the trade imbalance is to let the RMB appreciate, which will also have a multitude of other benefits geopolitically.

But the Chinese government has been hesitant to let that happen because it would lead to significant job losses in small and medium enterprises that produce goods for export.

Personally, I think that sooner or later, China needs to rip off the bandaid and let the RMB appreciate to around 5:1 vs the USD. It'll be painful, like bursting the property bubble, but the current trajectory is unsustainable.

edit: Now that I think about it, bursting the property bubble is probably a prerequisite before China can let the RMB appreciate. Japan's lost decade was largely due to it happening the other way around, i.e. the Plaza Accords forced the JPY to appreciate, and then the Japanese property bubble grew and burst. China bursting its property bubble first before any appreciation of the RMB will hopefully ensure that another property bubble doesn't grow.

 

[coolgod]

The most straightforward way to resolve the trade imbalance is to let the RMB appreciate, which will also have a multitude of other benefits geopolitically.

But the Chinese government has been hesitant to let that happen because it would lead to significant job losses in small and medium enterprises that produce goods for export.

Personally, I think that sooner or later, China needs to rip off the bandaid and let the RMB appreciate to around 5:1 vs the USD. It'll be painful, like bursting the property bubble, but the current trajectory is unsustainable.

5:1 vs USD? That's not going to do much to China's trade imbalance. Do you know how scary China is when it cranks out millions of EV by automated factories using clean energy transport ships? Or look at semiconductor industry, even the high end ones will follow the path of photovoltaics and display panels.

Back in the day China was exporting tea, pottery, artwork, these were high value added products. China was paid using precious metals (i.e., strong currencies), and it was still running a trade surplus. A strong RMB won't solve China's trade imbalance, 21st century capitalism doesn't change everything.

 

[doggydogdo]

The most straightforward way to resolve the trade imbalance is to let the RMB appreciate, which will also have a multitude of other benefits geopolitically.

But the Chinese government has been hesitant to let that happen because it would lead to significant job losses in small and medium enterprises that produce goods for export.

Personally, I think that sooner or later, China needs to rip off the bandaid and let the RMB appreciate to around 5:1 vs the USD. It'll be painful, like bursting the property bubble, but the current trajectory is unsustainable.

edit: Now that I think about it, bursting the property bubble is probably a prerequisite before China can let the RMB appreciate. Japan's lost decade was largely due to it happening the other way around, i.e. the Plaza Accords forced the JPY to appreciate, and then the Japanese property bubble grew and burst. China bursting its property bubble first before any appreciation of the RMB will hopefully ensure that another property bubble doesn't grow.

How would it benefit anyone geopolitically? Many businesses outside of China that relied on cheap Chinese goods would just collapse. There's a reason why governments don't just ban Chinese goods, its beneficial to their country as well.

 

[CMP]

One thing I can think of is opening up temp jobs for foreign workers (e.g. maids, caretakers, masseuse, servers) in niche specialties that don't compete with domestic workers. Some existing examples are like North Korean servers in North Korean restaurants, Japanese voice actress and entertainers engaging with audience in China, KPOP concerts in China, Hong Kong/Taiwan agencies employing foreign "masseuse".

Regardless of the type of services, China must open up its domestic market to foreign services, otherwise other countries will resent China for its enormous trade imbalance and bad things will follow.

The most straightforward way to resolve the trade imbalance is to let the RMB appreciate, which will also have a multitude of other benefits geopolitically.

But the Chinese government has been hesitant to let that happen because it would lead to significant job losses in small and medium enterprises that produce goods for export.

Personally, I think that sooner or later, China needs to rip off the bandaid and let the RMB appreciate to around 5:1 vs the USD. It'll be painful, like bursting the property bubble, but the current trajectory is unsustainable.

edit: Now that I think about it, bursting the property bubble is probably a prerequisite before China can let the RMB appreciate. Japan's lost decade was largely due to it happening the other way around, i.e. the Plaza Accords forced the JPY to appreciate, and then the Japanese property bubble grew and burst. China bursting its property bubble first before any appreciation of the RMB will hopefully ensure that another property bubble doesn't grow.

China doesn't need to do anything to address the trade imbalances. China just needs to translate the wealth surplus into unparalleled military and national security capabilities so that the West and their vassals dare not try anything sneaky or hostile like in the past. If any bread crumbs must be given, they should only be given to sufficiently cooperative nations. There is no need to provide relief for Japan or South Korea until/unless they stop hosting US military forces.

 

[gelgoog]

Trade imbalances happen because Chinese good are more competitive than others. Foreign workers would not be competitive in Chinese labour market because they don't speak mandarin.

China has the world's largest market for consumer goods. It just makes sense to put the factories close to the consumers. Any tiny extra production can then be exported at bargain basement prices compared to elsewhere because of lower cost per unit.

The other countries will just put trade tariffs in place if they want their industry to survive. It is already happening.

 

[TK3600]

Trading RMB for "true love", super worthy trade. Way better than some shitty euro sports car or limited edition sneakers.

As an aside, China also runs a massive trade surplus, in the long run this is not good. Look at the collapse of Ming (flood of silver) and Qing (opium war), partly due to running trade surplus with rest of world. Chinese goods are way too competitive, this was true two thousand years ago, it is still true today. Other countries have to use services to compensate for this imbalance, like Japan for example, we all know what kind of services it historically excelled at.

Buying shitty euro sports car finance foreign MIC to destroy his country. Finding "true love" help solve gender imbalance issue in his country. What a patriot!

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

But what is the difference between the two? Like is this regarding the sex of the foreigner or does it imply chinese-foreigner couples are choosing to stay in China more?

Most Chinese that marry out of China are women marrying to foreign men.

Foreigners that marry into China are more even, maybe even biased towards Chinese men.