China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

AndrewS · Jul 1, 2020

escobar said:
Really? you like to speculate too much

Then you need to tell the US Treasury Department and the Australian government that their estimates are completely wrong about how much China will grow.

So you accept that CHina could not declare war after those missiles being deployed in tawain

I think the presence of US military forces stationed on Taiwan would trigger a Chinese attack.
Otherwise Taiwan would act as a major US base used to contain China.

US militay still present in Europe and not going to change. So the "US lost Europe" doesn't mean much

I do see the US military leaving Europe one day.
We can see the European Union is actually building up its institutions to hold its own against China and the USA.
And national military budgets increasing, so that Europe won't have to rely on the US military

Remember that Russia's lacks the conventional military forces to even get past Poland to reach Germany, and Russia knows this.
So the military aspect is only about expeditionary operations on Europe's borders, which the military aspect is not that important for Europe.

But what about everything else like the economics, trade and technology.

escobar · Jul 1, 2020

KYli said:
it has any intention to interfere with other countries internal affair.

This is not true.

KYli said:
Whatever happened between the US and China is struggles of great powers. The US and the west want to maintain the liberal international order that is dictated and dominated by them. On the other hand, China wanted to break the stranglehold that the West has imposed to the world since the imperial days.

True

KYli said:
The premise is China needs to appease all other nations so it could focus on the US and counter any alliance that the US could form. The premise is appeasement would bring peace and allies. The fact is appeasement has allowed India to practice salami-slice strategy in the border.

It is about how, why and when to pick a fight

KYli said:
Appeasement has allowed ASEAN especially Vietnam and Philippines to gobble up most of SCS islands and push China out of SCS. The truth is weakness invited more aggression.

Weakness has allowed that, not appeasement

KYli said:
I asked again. What other nations can offer China except lip service. It is delusional to think Japan and SK could maintain independent if push comes to shove.

Other nations don't exist for China

escobar · Jul 1, 2020

AndrewS said:
I think the presence of US military forces stationed on Taiwan would trigger a Chinese attack.

Everyone think, but nobody is really certain on china response

AndrewS said:
Otherwise Taiwan would act as a major US base used to contain China.

True

AndrewS said:
I do see the US military leaving Europe one day.

Everything is possible one day. but in near to long term US military is not leaving Europe

KYli · Jul 1, 2020

escobar said:
And i'm saying you should not take for granted that China will declare war...

History says otherwise. Americans thought that China wouldn't enter the Korea War in 1950. The Indians thought that China would do nothing in 1962.

Don't underestimate China's resolve. And don't make light of implication of basing ballistic missiles on Taiwan. We were at the brink of WWIII due to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Somehow people think China would react any less assertive is beyond me.

KYli · Jul 1, 2020

escobar said:
This is not true.

What's not true. Do you have any good example why not?

It is about how, why and when to pick a fight

Everyone thinks they are a strategist but at the end of the day weakness brings contempt from your opponent and provoke systematic aggression from them.

Weakness has allowed that, not appeasement

No, it is appeasement that let to the dire situation in the SCS. China wanted to maintain good relationship with its neighbors so much in the 80s and 90s that it tried to appease its neighbors by not standing firm on many issues.

Other nations don't exist for China

Then why should China give a damn. If they can't give China something in return, then they have no value to China.

escobar · Jul 1, 2020

KYli said:
History says otherwise. Americans thought that China wouldn't enter the Korea War in 1950. The Indians thought that China would do nothing in 1962.

Don't underestimate China's resolve. And don't make light of implication of basing ballistic missiles on Taiwan. We were at the brink of WWIII due to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Somehow people think China would react any less assertive is beyond me.

I"m neither understimate nor overestimte china's resolve. But i"am being realist on what have been China response so far to US action toward Taiwan

KYli said:
No, it is appeasement that let to the dire situation in the SCS. China wanted to maintain good relationship with its neighbors so much in the 80s and 90s that it tried to appease its neighbors by not standing firm on many issues.

China wanted to maintain good relationship with its neighbors so much in the 80s and 90s because china was weak. When you are weak you will try appeasement. Don't try to pass it as a favor China was doing

KYli said:
Everyone thinks they are a strategist but at the end of the day weakness brings contempt from your opponent and provoke systematic aggression from them.

True, that is why CHina need to do deterrence. But not just deterence, cooperation also

KYli · Jul 1, 2020

escobar said:
I"m neither understimate nor overestimte china's resolve. But i"am being realist on what have been China response so far to US action toward Taiwan

Anti-Succession Law has already spent out what China would do regarding Taiwan. The US has not done anything that warrant China to take any drastic action whatsoever. Those childish provocation doesn't warrant much except verbal protests.

escobar · Jul 1, 2020

KYli said:
Then why should China give a damn. If they can't give China something in return, then they have no value to China.

This is the lack of sophistication thinking that is making China IR policy so weak.

KYli said:
What's not true. Do you have any good example why not?

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KYli said:
Anti-Succession Law has already spent out what China would do regarding Taiwan. The US has not done anything that warrant China to take any drastic action whatsoever. Those childish provocation doesn't warrant much except verbal protests.

if those childish provocation were done by a country less powerfull than China, China will not just making verbal protest.

KYli · Jul 1, 2020

escobar said:
China wanted to maintain good relationship with its neighbors so much in the 80s and 90s because china was weak. When you are weak you will try appeasement. Don't try to pass it as a favor China was doing

If that's so, then why China started a border with Vietnam for 10 years in the 80s. You can't even differentiate between weakness and a change of approach towards international relationship due to the change of internal priority.

escobar said:
True, that is why CHina need to do deterrence. But not just deterence, cooperation also

What makes you think China isn't doing just that.

escobar said:
This is the lack of sophistication thinking that is making China IR policy so weak.

The so called sophistication thinking has caused China to be backstab multiple times. If IR with certain countries has nothing to offer, then don't expect China to spend political capital to nurture them.

escobar said:
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Are you kidding me? If this could be called interfere with internal affair, then I think you are just trolling.

escobar said:
if those childish provocation were done by a country less powerfull than China, China will not just making verbal protest.

So...... Just look at HK, America went all in and thought China couldn't dare to do anything, then came the national security law and America was the one ended up losing all the chips. Let America used up its chips and leverages now. When the time is right, strike back with a knock out punch.

escobar · Jul 1, 2020

KYli said:
If that's so, then why China started a border with Vietnam for 10 years in the 80s. You can't even differentiate between weakness and a change of approach towards international relationship due to the change of internal priority.

Yess priority. If China had the Navy they have now, they would have not let Vietnam and Philippines gobble up most of SCS islands. So weakness there

KYli said:
What makes you think China isn't doing just that..

They are doing it. But also overacting and making threat when not necessary

KYli said:
The so called sophistication thinking has caused China to be backstab multiple times. If IR with certain countries has nothing to offer, then don't expect China to spend political capital to nurture them.

So need realism not idealim in IR

KYli said:
Are you kidding me? If this could be called interfere with internal affair, then I think you are just trolling.

Do you think Brazil will see that way?

KYli said:
So...... Just look at HK, America went all in and thought China couldn't dare to do anything, then came the national security law and America was the one ended up losing all the chips. Let America used up its chips and leverages now. When the time is right, strike back with a knock out punch.

We were talking abut taiwan isssue and you shift to HK. too predictable...

China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

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