was waiting for your response.
please made a comprehensive thread about Current Chinese EW system. does China have complete global coverage. ?
China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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please made a comprehensive thread about Current Chinese EW system. does China have complete global coverage. ?
It was intensely discussing back in Dec last year.
Tl;dr 4 GEO satellites have cover most of the plant expect for some part of Atlantic,whose northern hemisphere will be monitored by Shiyan-10-01 and 02 HEO satellites. In theory China still needs possibly two more HEOs as well as two more GEOs.
As for LPAR, he probably didn't find out that Yiyuan actually has two radars. One of them was newly built around 2021. Also the Kongtong actually has a rotating angle of 360 degree instead of perceived 120 degree.
Yiyuan:
Kongtong:
2019/06
2020/03
2021/09
2022/06
The OSINT tweeps are slow eh.
That was a nice DoD confirmation from the 2022 CMPR screenshot that the DF-5 has always been LOW-able though (part about considering CSS-4 LOW in '70s), I missed that bit.
much appreciate bro..
i do ask a lot questions. hope you don't mind. lol
in comparison, how many satellites do Russia or US have in orbit for this purpose.
remaining two Chinese HEOs and two more GEOs satellites launch date ? any rough estimate
Russia has 6 active HEO EW but NO GEO satellites in EKS series, last one launched in Nov 2022.
US has 6 active GEO EW and 4 HEO EW satellites. But US has an aging problem on their satellites, first two of HEO series, HEO-1 and HEO-2 was launched in 2006 and 2008 respectively, meanwhile the designed lifespan is said to be only 12 years. The first GEO satellite was launched in 2011, also approaching its theoretical end of service. It is not saying that their EW satellites are not working anymore but they indeed need modern replacement right now. But US is moving toward MEO/LEO combination to address their hypersonics concern, first prototype was said to be launched soon this year.
China has 4 GEO EW satellites, respectively launched in 2017, 2020 and 2021. HEO EW satellites were launched in 2021 and 2022. I am not satellite expert but I think China still need possible two more GEO satellite to double cover North America and Indian Sea area. HEO series was said to be at least 4 in orbit to maintain all-day coverage over Northern Pole so 2 more HEO satellite expected.
Chinese EWS has a very fast deployment schedule but no clear roadmap on when it will end and move towards LEO constellation to track hypersonics missile. My guess is not in a hurry because US doesn't have any hypersonics missile in deployment yet. My guess is two more GEO satellite in 2023 and beyond with two more HEO satellite in 2024 and 2025.
It is very easy to tell whether it is a Chinese EW satellite. All Chinese EWS are produced by Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST) and launched by CZ-3B.
For Pu-239, you find the reactor and measure the heat signature with a satellite. This will tell you what the thermal output of the reactor is. Then you can work out how much Pu-239 can that reactor produce in a cycle.
For HEU, you can check the size of a facility and calculate how many centrifuges that facility can fit. You can also measure the temperature of the facility if a thermal diffusion plant is found.
There is also HUMINT, just send a spy in and find out how much power they are consuming.
Finally James draws a rough illustration on how those radars could work on Google Earth.
Few detail that he doesn't mention:
1. The Korla radar received an upgrade or once-a-decade maintenance at the end of 2021. It is the smallest EWR in terms of size, only half in length and width compared with other EWRs in China. It is also the oldest EWR in China so an upgrade is reasonable here.
Worth noting China doesn't often rotate the radar towards the direction of Russia, could it be some secret agreements on mutual trust or even possibly early warning sharing network between China and Russia?
2. "SSBN will carry out a decapitation strike from Indian Ocean, Chinese can't detect it and they will be screwed."
First of all, TJS-2 was the first one in Chinese EWS series and almost cover the entire Indian Ocean in 2017, then it came with TJS-5 over Singapore in 2020. Both of them were placed over Asia instead of US Minuteman III silos. My guess is that PLASSF tested the reliability of EWS system by using them to track China's own ballistic missile tests. Side bet is to cover vulnerable areas where hadn't been dealt with EW radars yet at that moment.
Mystery:
Russia doesn't have even one GEO EWS in their EW system, wouldn't it be vulnerable against a first strike from Indian Ocean if they require dual phenomenology. (meaning they need confirmation from both radars and satellite to order a dispersal or counter strike)
It makes me wonder if China and Russia are developing a joint BMD warning system and Putin explicitly said in 2019 that Russia was helping China to develop its EWS. It makes sense to combine Chinese and Russian EW coverage in technicality but not so sure on geopolitics issue.
Few detail that he doesn't mention:
1. The Korla radar received an upgrade or once-a-decade maintenance at the end of 2021. It is the smallest EWR in terms of size, only half in length and width compared with other EWRs in China. It is also the oldest EWR in China so an upgrade is reasonable here.
Worth noting China doesn't often rotate the radar towards the direction of Russia, could it be some secret agreements on mutual trust or even possibly early warning sharing network between China and Russia?
2. "SSBN will carry out a decapitation strike from Indian Ocean, Chinese can't detect it and they will be screwed."
First of all, TJS-2 was the first one in Chinese EWS series and almost cover the entire Indian Ocean in 2017, then it came with TJS-5 over Singapore in 2020. Both of them were placed over Asia instead of US Minuteman III silos. My guess is that PLASSF tested the reliability of EWS system by using them to track China's own ballistic missile tests. Side bet is to cover vulnerable areas where hadn't been dealt with EW radars yet at that moment.
Mystery:
Russia doesn't have even one GEO EWS in their EW system, wouldn't it be vulnerable against a first strike from Indian Ocean if they require dual phenomenology. (meaning they need confirmation from both radars and satellite to order a dispersal or counter strike)
It makes me wonder if China and Russia are developing a joint BMD warning system and Putin explicitly said in 2019 that Russia was helping China to develop its EWS. It makes sense to combine Chinese and Russian EW coverage in technicality but not so sure on geopolitics issue.
Ah, I said "acquire", not manufacture. Yes, I agree that it would be difficult for China to produce WgPu without being detected. With HEU, China has the world's third-largest enrichment capacity and I don't think any of it is monitored. It seems to me that China could produce sufficient quantities of HEU without being detected since the operation of the plants is identical for LEU or HEU.
Plutonium is not required for a modern thermonuclear weapon. It has properties that make it desirable in the primary stage (it's more easily compressible because it has allotropes of higher density, and it has a lower bare sphere critical critical mass), but it's not irreplaceable. If China decided it wanted to squeeze every available kilogram out of its weapon design, it could obtain WgPu from Russia.
