China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

The Trident IID5 has a CEP of 90 meters (and that's 1980s GPS technology, whilst the CEP of the DF-41 is still a few hundred meters (likely around 200-400 the last time I checked). But such marginal difference in accuracy doesn't really matter in nuclear warfare. Nonetheless, it does show that China still has some catch-ups to do in terms of miniaturization and quality, especially in conventional weapons and miniaturization of whole-of-systems.

Warheads don't use GPS. They use inertial navigation with stellar map checking.

The possibility of ANY 1980s electronics being better than today is 0. The leading edge tech of 1980s electronics was 1.6 micron - 1600 nm.

 

[gelgoog]

In case case of a mobile launcher it might use Beidou i.e. satnav to compute the initial position of the DF-31 or DF-41 launcher. But yeah I think the missiles themselves use inertial guidance and have star trackers.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Reading DOD annual report about Chinese military capabilities and equipment.

The speed and scale of the PRC military expansion across all fronts and never seen before Nuclear build up since the peak of COLD WAR..

 

[CMP]

Warheads don't use GPS. They use inertial navigation with stellar map checking.

The possibility of ANY 1980s electronics being better than today is 0. The leading edge tech of 1980s electronics was 1.6 micron - 1600 nm.

I always have to lol that some people here are somehow just consistently wrong with every single take they have. They're so consistent and reliable in their wrongness that you can just ignore list them.

 

[Kalec]

the only warhead in service with the PLA would be the 535 (the one tested in 1992)

I suspect the case has been changed since 2018, probably even earlier though.

The Trident IID5 has a CEP of 90 meters (and that's 1980s GPS technology, whilst the CEP of the DF-41 is still a few hundred meters (likely around 200-400 the last time I checked).

Hard target kill capability relies on both CEP and detonation point, in another word, China could have superfuze of its own. And warhead doesn't have GPS on it.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Speaking of which, @Kalec do you think we need to update your following estimations from early this year?

Especially with the recent expansion of present Chinese nuclear warhead production facilities, in addition to those newly-built ones in mind? Or have they already been included?

 

[bustead]

On warhead miniaturization, I think I have found some indirect evidence pointing towards China's progress since 1996.

The DF-5C test in 2017 was, according to the Americans at least, a test involving 10 MIRVs.

The throw weight of a DF-5 is 3000-4000 kg, including non-warhead coponents like the electronics or decoys.

Thus, each 535 warhead should weight no more than 400 kg. More likely somewhere around 360-380 kg.

 

[Kalec]

Speaking of which, @Kalec do you think we need to update your following estimations from early this year?

Especially with the recent expansion of present Chinese nuclear warhead production facilities, in addition to those newly-built ones in mind? Or have they already been included?

My warhead estimation based on a more linear throw-weight projection.

Note:
1. It is strategic nuke only, not including DF-26, DF-27, or air-delivered gravity bombs.
2. The projection is based on assumption of Silo Field IOC in 2028 and 096 IOC in 2030, much more conservative than before.
3. ICBM acquisition rate is at around 40/year.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

On warhead miniaturization, I think I have found some indirect evidence pointing towards China's progress since 1996.

The DF-5C test in 2017 was, according to the Americans at least, a test involving 10 MIRVs.

The throw weight of a DF-5 is 3000-4000 kg, including non-warhead coponents like the electronics or decoys.

Thus, each 535 warhead should weight no more than 400 kg. More likely somewhere around 360-380 kg.

Early 535 mounted on DF-31 weighted 470 kg, but the ones mounted on DF-31A, DF-41, DF-5B/C and DF-26 have been reduced to 360kg. Call it 535A if you will.

 

[antiterror13]

Early 535 mounted on DF-31 weighted 470 kg, but the ones mounted on DF-31A, DF-41, DF-5B/C and DF-26 have been reduced to 360kg. Call it 535A if you will.

What is the main factor to reduce by 110kg or ~25% ? has it been tested? is it the same yield 650 kt ?

I think China should develop a warhead similar to W76 with the yield 90kt with only less than 100kg of weight