U.S.-China Rivalry Simmers Underseas
Pentagon Concerned About Beijing's Expanded Submarine Forces
By James T. Areddy
Aug. 26, 2014 1:46 p.m. ET
SHANGHAI—A close midair encounter between U.S. and Chinese military planes last week reflected long-running tensions in the skies—a rivalry that is building under the waters below, as well.
The Defense Department didn't explain the mission for the U.S. Navy P-8 aircraft—a plane designed to track submarines—that was intercepted by a Chinese J-11 fighter over the South China Sea to the east of China's Hainan Island on Aug. 19. U.S. officials say in that encounter, and several others in recent months, Chinese fighter pilots have flown dangerously close to U.S. aircraft.
One Chinese rear admiral said the U.S. plane was likely spying on China's nuclear submarines.
The midair intercepts come as the U.S. military has warned that Beijing is quickly expanding its submarine force, including a fleet of Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile subs.
At least two of those appear to be based at Hainan, according to foreign defense experts who point to a recently expanded sub base there that features an undersea entrance.
The Pentagon has said it expects the Chinese navy to use the Jin-class to begin China's first sea patrols with fully armed nuclear weapons at some point this year.
"The U.S. wants to know exactly what's going on in Hainan," said Chen Qi, an expert on Sino-U.S. relations at Beijing's Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. "China does not want the U.S. to know."
Both the U.S. and China are trying to reduce the likelihood that chance encounters between the militaries could lead to accidents. The Chinese defense ministry said Tuesday that it sent a delegation to the U.S. to take part in meetings this week to discuss military rules at sea and in the air.
The U.S. Embassy in Beijing declined to comment, referring inquiries on the matter to the Pentagon.
The U.S. patrols and China's intercepts are likely to continue, some analysts said, given the stakes. The U.S. military is concerned about what it says is China's growing investment in submarines as part of a broad modernization program that already includes an aircraft carrier and an expanding fleet of navy ships.
Like few other systems in the military arsenal, submarines add stealth to military power and allow it to be projected virtually anywhere. China sees the force as vital to its aspirations to be a superpower.
The recently commissioned P-8 is the Navy's most advanced sub-hunter, notable for its relative speed and long-range surveillance capabilities. Since December, the U.S. has sent six P-8s to bases in southern Japan to boost its anti-submarine forces.
China's plan is to augment its submarine fleet of around 60, many acquired from Russia over the past 25 years, the U.S. military says.
"China's advance in submarine capabilities is significant," Adm. Samuel J. Locklear, Commander of the U.S. Navy's Pacific Command, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee in March. "They possess a large and increasingly capable submarine force."
The Defense Department points in particular to submarines equipped to carry a new ballistic missile with an estimated range of more than 4,000 nautical miles. That would leave much of North America in range, depending on where in the Pacific the subs are.
"This will give China its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent, probably before the end of 2014," Adm. Locklear told the Senate committee.
According to the Defense Department's latest annual report to congress, China operates three such Jin-class Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and up to five may enter service before it unveils a next generation type over the coming decade.
"Make no mistake, the nuclear ballistic missile submarine is the most dangerous weapon on Earth," John Keller, editor of Military & Aerospace Electronics wrote in a June report.
"Think of it as a stealthy, silent, and mobile collection of nuclear missile silos. They deploy quietly, submerge quickly, and remain hidden under the waves for months at a time. Tracking them is difficult and imprecise."
Experts in China said encounters like the one last week are neither new, nor likely to stop. Ni Lexiong, a military expert at Shanghai's University of Political Science, said the U.S. feels threatened by China's "normal and reasonable" desire to build a modern navy.
"This is an irreconcilable contradiction," said Mr. Ni.
The U.S. augments surveillance from aircraft with satellites, surface ships and other submarines, looking for favored routes and maneuvers, experts say.
That adds complications to a region with busy commercial shipping lanes and natural-resources exploration, as well as periodic clashes between vessels from China, Vietnam and the Philippines over disputed maritime claims.
As in last week's intercept in the skies, submarines appear in the background of past Sino-U.S. encounters near China's southern coast.
In March 2009, the U.S. said one its navy ships—the Impeccable, a surveillance vessel designed specifically to drag a sonar array to detect submarines—faced harassment from five Chinese vessels as well as a low flyby from a Chinese air force plane.
The U.S. called the Chinese ships' actions reckless, unprofessional and unlawful, while China said the Impeccable was illegally surveying within its Exclusive Economic Zone—an area extending 200 nautical miles from its coast.
The U.S. says countries are free to carry out military surveillance and mapping outside the 12-nautical mile territorial waters.
—Kersten Zhang
contributed to this article.
